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Andre Frossard Pereira de Lucena Roberto Schaeffer Alexandre Salem Szklo 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(2):342-350
Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy security. The vulnerability of energy sources, in particular of renewable sources, to climate change raises the need to identify adaptation measures. This paper applies an integrated resource planning approach to calculate least-cost adaptation measures to a set of projected climate impacts on the Brazilian power sector. The methodology used has the advantage of finding optimal solutions that take into consideration the whole energy chain and the interactions between energy supply and demand. Results point in the direction of an increased installed capacity based, mostly, on natural gas, but also sugarcane bagasse, wind power and coal/nuclear plants, to compensate for a lower reliability of hydroelectric production, amongst other impacts. The indirect effect of these results is the displacement of natural gas from other consuming sectors, such as industry, in favor of its use for power generation. Results obtained are, however, based on the techno-economic premises used in the simulation, which may vary in the long term. 相似文献
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Corentin Jouault Vincent Perrichot André Nel 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2021,132(3):324-331
A new genus and species of orussoid wasps, Cretorussus vilhelmseni gen. et sp. nov., is described based on new material from the mid-Cretaceous Burmese amber. Its wing venation and body characters lead us to emend the diagnosis of the family Burmorussidae. Cretorussus vilhelmseni gen. et sp. nov. is considered to be a specialized parasitic wasp of wood-living hosts because of the orussid-like ocellar crown, antennae attached well above clypeus, and antennal grooves absent. Interestingly, the third tarsomere carries a prominent lanceolate lobe, serving as part of the host detection. We propose a summary of the orussoid fossil diversity. Lastly, we discuss the implications of several characters of Burmorussidae that are involved in host detection. 相似文献
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J. W. MacDougall D. A. Andre G. J. Sofko C.-S. Huang A. V. Koustov 《Annales Geophysicae》2001,18(12):1550-1559
Based on modeling of the perturbations in power and elevation angle produced by travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), and observed by the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network, procedures for determining the TID properties are suggested. These procedures are shown to produce reasonable agreement with those properties of the TIDs that can be measured from simultaneous ionosonde measurements. The modeling shows that measurements of angle-of-elevation perturbations by SuperDARN allows for better determination of the TID properties than using only the perturbations of power as is commonly done.On sabbatical from Department Electrical Engineering, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada 相似文献
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Spatially explicit hydrodynamic flood models can play animportant role in natural hazard risk reduction. A key element of these models that make them suitable for riskreduction is the ability to provide time-series inundation information about the onset, duration and passingof a hazard event. Such information can be critical for landuse planning, for mapping evacuation egress routes,and for locating suitable emergency shelters to name only a few risk treatments. This research contends that abarrier to effective risk reduction is providing disaster managers with access to model results in a structured andflexible framework that allows consequences of different hazard scenarios to be assessed and mapped. Toaddress these limitations, a framework has been developed that links a commercial relational databasemanagement system with a GIS-based decision support system. The framework utilises industry standard dataexchange protocols and results in efficient time-series hazard data management. A case study based in Cairns,in far-north coastal Australia is presented to illustrate how the system has been developed. Results show that theframework reduces data volumes significantly, while making pre-run modelled inundation results rapidly accessibleto disaster managers. Of note is the ability of the framework to present results in terms of risk to buildings,roads and other spatial features in urban regions, and to provide answers to relatively complex risk questions. 相似文献
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A field survey of thirty stream junctions from a small watershed, together with data collected by Miller (1958), allowed us to investigate morphometric adjustments occurring at confluences. The model proposed by Roy and Woldenberg (1986) was slightly modified and used as a tool for morphometric analysis. Two parameters are necessary in order to evaluate the rate of change in channel size at a confluence: the area ratio (channel capacity above the confluence: channel capacity below the confluence) and the discharge ratio (discharge of the minor tributary: discharge of the major tributary). Our data show that total channel capacity tends to decline below most confluences. A reduction in cross-sectional area implies an increase in average flow velocity. This interpretation is consistent with Lyell's observations and with results from recent flume experiments (Best and Reid, 1984). 相似文献
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Magma genesis in the Moon could have been significantly altered by large impacts if they melted solidified residual liquids and late cumulates from the ‘magma ocean’. Calculations of the heat required to melt these materials, under different assumed conditions, are compared to estimates of the total kinetic energy of the Imbrium impact. For a significant amount of these materials to have been melted, they must have been near their solidus temperatures, the impacts must have been very large, and the lunar lithosphere must have been locally heated at depths of 70 to 140 km. Unless the Imbrium impact released at least the maximum estimated kinetic energy, only larger impacts, e.g., the proposed ‘Gargantuan’ impact, could have augmented the intrinsic lunar heat budget enough to locally alter the abundance, timing of eruption, and chemical compositions of lunar magmas. The mechanical and thermal energy generated by such an impact could have been critical in creating (1) the higher concentrations of radioactive elements in the Imbrium/Procellarum area by migration of residual liquids driven by differential lithospheric thickness; and (2) hybrid mare basalts (representing varying proportions of late cumulates and/or residual liquids incorporated into primitive magmas rising from the partially molten lunar interior). Complete compositional spectra of lunar basalts are to be expected, from primitive mare basalts to pure KREEP and to Ti-rich varieties. Comparison of the Gargantuan/Imbrium area with ancient basins in the eastern nearside area suggests that the interplay between the Moon's internal heat engine and the timing of large impacts was a crucial factor in determining the time of tunar volcanism and the chemical composition of the lavas. 相似文献
50.
Hermann J. Jakobs Stefan Tilmes Andre Heidegger Klaus Nester Gerhard Smiatek 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2002,42(1):23-40
Within the framework of the Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) four working groups in Germany (University of Stuttgart, University of Cologne, Research Center Karlsruhe, German Weather Service) formed a network developing a model system for chemistry transport calculations on different scales. The network was optimized, based on each module and combined for the different interfaces in order to perform daily preoperational ozone forecasts and its precursors at the German Weather Service in summer 1999 (May through September). The setup of the model system, the interfaces and changes of each module are described. The results of the whole preoperational episode are displayed and discussed. Main efforts were done analyzing the model climate statistics and the verification of the predictions with an extensive data base of observations at stations in Germany. The results of this extensive verification demonstrate the relatively good performance of the entire forecast system. 相似文献