Considering large earthquake clustering in seismic risk analysis     

Mignan  Arnaud  Danciu  Laurentiu  Giardini  Domenico 《Natural Hazards》2016,83(1):149-176

Earthquakes cluster in space and time resulting in nonlinear damage effects. We compute earthquake interactions using the Coulomb stress transfer theory and dynamic vulnerability from the concept of ductility capacity reduction. We combine both processes in the generic multi-risk framework where risk scenarios are simulated using a variant of the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We apply the proposed approach to the thrust fault system of northern Italy, considering earthquakes with characteristic magnitudes in the range ~[6, 6.5], different levels of tectonic loading \(\dot{\tau }\) = {10⁻⁴, 10⁻³, 10⁻²} bar/year and a generic stock of fictitious low-rise buildings with different ductility capacities μ _Δ = {2, 4, 6}. We describe the process’ stochasticity by non-stationary Poisson earthquake probabilities and by binomial damage state probabilities. We find that earthquake clustering yields a tail fattening of the seismic risk curve, the effect of which is amplified by damage-dependent fragility due to clustering. The impact of clustering alone is in average more important than dynamic vulnerability, the spatial extent of the former phenomenon being greater than of the latter one.

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Indirect unstructured hex-dominant mesh generation using tetrahedra recombination     

Arnaud Botella  Bruno Lévy  Guillaume Caumon 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(3):437-451

Corner-point gridding is widely used in reservoir and basin modeling but generally yields approximations in the representation of geological interfaces. This paper introduces an indirect method to generate a hex-dominant mesh conformal to 3D geological surfaces and well paths suitable for finite-element and control-volume finite-element simulations. By indirect, we mean that the method first generates an unstructured tetrahedral mesh whose tetrahedra are then merged into primitives (hexahedra, prisms, and pyramids). More specifically, we focus on determining the optimal set of primitives that can be recombined from a given tetrahedral mesh. First, we detect in the tetrahedral mesh all the feasible volumetric primitives using a pattern-matching algorithm (Meshkat and Talmor Int. J. Numer. Meth. Eng. 49(1-2), 17–30 2000) that we re-visit and extend with configurations that account for degenerated tetrahedra (slivers). Then, we observe that selecting the optimal set of primitives among the feasible ones can be formalized as a maximum weighted independent set problem (Bomze et al. 1999), known to be \(\mathcal {N}\mathcal {P}\)-Complete. We propose several heuristic optimizations to find a reasonable set of primitives in a practical time. All the tetrahedra of each selected primitive are then merged to build the final unstructured hex-dominant mesh. This method is demonstrated on 3D geological models including a faulted and folded model and a discrete fracture network.  相似文献   

An Alternative Protocol for Single Zircon Dissolution with Application to (U‐Th‐Sm)/He Thermochronometry          下载免费PDF全文

Bouchaïb Tibari  Arnaud Vacherat  Martin Stab  Raphaël Pik  Delphine Yeghicheyan  Pascal Hild 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(3):365-375

Zircon (U‐Th‐Sm)/He (ZHe) thermochronometry is a powerful tool that has been widely used in geology to constrain the exhumation histories of orogens. In this study, we present an alternative protocol for dissolving zircon grains for determination of parent nuclides. This new alkali fusion procedure developed at the SARM (Service d'Analyse des Roches et des Minéraux) in Nancy, France, is fast (requiring only 2 d, including cleaning steps) and offers several advantages over conventional methods by avoiding: (i) use of HF pressure dissolution and (ii) complete removing of grains from the metal microvials. After dissolution, U, Th and Sm were measured using an ICP‐MS. We tested the new procedure on two different ZHe reference materials, the Fish Canyon Tuff and Buluk Tuff; these provided precision values for ZHe‐age estimations of 9 and 6% (1s), respectively. In addition, using this method, zircons from the Buluk Tuff are shown to be chemically more homogenous and more suitable for assessing the uncertainty of the entire integrated procedure.  相似文献   

Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling     

Jalal Samia  Arnaud Temme  Arnold K. Bregt  Jakob Wallinga  John Stuiver  Fausto Guzzetti  Francesca Ardizzone  Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2129-2144

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.  相似文献   

Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the north‐west European Alps     

B. Wilhelm  F. Arnaud  P. Sabatier  O. Magand  E. Chapron  T. Courp  K. Tachikawa  B. Fanget  E. Malet  C. Pignol  E. Bard  J. J. Delannoy 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(2):189-199

A high‐resolution sedimentological and geochemical study of a high‐altitude proglacial lake (Lake Blanc, Aiguilles Rouges, 2352 m a.s.l.) revealed 195 turbidites, 190 of which are related to flood events over the last 1400 years. We used the coarsest sediment fraction of each turbidite as a proxy for the intensity of each flood event. Because most flood events at this locality are triggered by localized summer convective precipitation events, the reconstructed sedimentary record reveals changes in the frequency and intensity of such events over the last millennium. Comparisons with other temperature, palaeohydrological and glacier reconstructions in the region suggest that the most intense events occurred during the warmest periods, i.e. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 800–1300) and the current period of global warming. On a multi‐decadal time scale, almost all the flood frequency peaks seem to correspond to warmer periods, whereas multi‐centennial variations in flood frequency appear to follow the regional precipitation pattern. Consequently, this new Alpine flood record provides further evidence of a link between climate warming and an increase in the frequency and intensity of flooding on a multi‐decadal time scale, whereas the centennial variability in flood frequencies is related to regional precipitation patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Quantitative analysis of soft-bottom molluscs in the Bellingshausen Sea and around Peter I Island   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jesús S. Troncoso  Cristian Aldea  Patrick Arnaud  Ana Ramos  & Francisco García 《Polar research》2007,26(2):126-134

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Tableau de répartition stratigraphique des Grands Foraminifères caractéristiques du Crétacé moyen de la région Méditerranéenne     

Groupe de Travail Europen des Grands Foraminifres  A. Arnaud  P. -Y. Berthou  L. Brun  A. Cherchi  M. Chiocchini  P. De Castro  E. Fourcade  A. Garcia Quintana  M. Hamaoui  M. Lamolda  E. Luperto Sinni  M. Neumann  B. Prestat  R. Schroeder  G. Tronchetti 《Cretaceous Research》1981,2(3-4)

Le Groupe de Travail Européen des Grands Foraminifères présente un tableau de répartition stratigraphique de 42 espèces bien définies du Crétacé moyen de la région méditerranéenne. La répartition stratigraphique proposée pour chaque espèce est fondée soit sur des propres observations soit sur des données de la littérature supprimer et est contrôlée par la présence d'Ammonites ou de Foraminifères planctoniques.A summarizing account is presented of the deliberations of the research group for Large Foraminifers of the IGCP Project “Mid-Cretaceous Events”. Large Foraminifers are of incontestable value for dating carbonate platform sequences owing to the absence of many other diagnostic groups of organísms. A table of stratigraphical distributions for 42 species is presented.  相似文献   

Thermal influence of urban groundwater recharge from stormwater infiltration basins     

Arnaud Foulquier  Florian Malard  Sylvie Barraud  Janine Gibert 《水文研究》2009,23(12):1701-1713

Groundwater warming below cities has become a major environmental issue; but the effect of distinct local anthropogenic sources of heat on urban groundwater temperature distributions is still poorly documented. Our study addressed the local effect of stormwater infiltration on the thermal regime of urban groundwater by examining differences in water temperature beneath stormwater infiltration basins (SIB) and reference sites fed exclusively by direct infiltration of rainwater at the land surface. Stormwater infiltration dramatically increased the thermal amplitude of groundwater at event and season scales. Temperature variation at the scale of rainfall events reached 3 °C and was controlled by the interaction between runoff amount and difference in temperature between stormwater and groundwater. The annual amplitude of groundwater temperature was on average nine times higher below SIB (range: 0·9–8·6 °C) than at reference sites (range: 0–1·2 °C) and increased with catchment area of SIB. Elevated summer temperature of infiltrating stormwater (up to 21 °C) decreased oxygen solubility and stimulated microbial respiration in the soil and vadose zone, thereby lowering dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in groundwater. The net effect of infiltration on average groundwater temperature depended upon the seasonal distribution of rainfall: groundwater below large SIB warmed up (+0·4 °C) when rainfall occurred predominantly during warm seasons. The thermal effect of stormwater infiltration strongly attenuated with increasing depth below the groundwater table indicating advective heat transport was restricted to the uppermost layers of groundwater. Moreover, excessive groundwater temperature variation at event and season scales can be attenuated by reducing the size of catchment areas drained by SIB and by promoting source control drainage systems. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Alpine tectonics in the Calabrian–Peloritan belt (southern Italy): New 40Ar/39Ar data in the Aspromonte Massif area     

Thomas Heymes  Patrick Monié  Nicolas Arnaud  Arnaud Pêcher  Jean-Pierre Bouillin  Roberto Compagnoni 《Lithos》2010,114(3-4):451-472

This study provides new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronological constraints on the age of the Alpine tectonics in the Aspromonte Massif (southern part of the Calabrian–Peloritan belt). This massif exposes the upper units of the Calabride Complex which originated from the European continental margin. The Calabride Complex was incorporated in the Alpine orogenic wedge and then integrated into the Apennines and Maghrebides fold-and-thrust belts. Throughout the Calabride Complex there is evidence for a two stage tectonic history, which remains however rather poorly dated: Alpine nappe stacking is followed by extensional reworking along the former thrust contacts or along new detachment surfaces. Our new ages suggest that exhumation of the uppermost units, which accompanied nappe stacking, probably started at 45 Ma and that the deepest units were almost completely exhumed at 33 Ma. This kinematics probably corresponds to syn-orogenic extension while the end of exhumation is clearly related to the extensional tectonics dated at 28.6 Ma along detachment structures.Our geochronological data reveal a very short lag time between accretional and extensional processes in this part of the Mediterranean Alpine orogenic belt. The direction of extension, when the units are restored to their initial position (i.e. before the opening of the Western Mediterranean basins and the bending of the arc) is NNE–SSW. Such a direction does not fit with the eastward slab-retreat model generally put forward to explain extension in the Western Mediterranean. In contrast, we provide evidence for roughly N–S middle Oligocene extension in the accretionary prism, not previously described in this part of the Mediterranean domain.  相似文献   

The recording of floods and earthquakes in Lake Chichój,Guatemala during the twentieth century     

Gilles Brocard  Thierry Adatte  Olivier Magand  Hans-Rudolf Pfeifer  Albedo Bettini  Fabien Arnaud  Flavio S. Anselmetti  Sergio Moran-Ical 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,52(3):155-169

Laguna Chichój (Lake Chichój) is the only deep permanent lake in the central highlands of Guatemala. The lake is located in the boundary zone between the North American and Caribbean plates. The lake has been struck by devastating earthquakes and tropical cyclones in historical times. We investigated the imprint of twentieth century extreme events on the sedimentary record of this tropical lake using a bathymetric survey of the lake, coring the lake floor, and providing a chronology of sediment accumulation. The lake occupies a series of circular depressions likely formed by the rapid dissolution of a buried body of gypsum. ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs inventories and varve counting indicate high rates of sedimentation (1–2 cm year^?1). The annually layered sediment is interrupted by turbidites of two types: a darker-colored turbidite, enriched in lake-derived biogenic constituents, and interpreted as a seismite, and a lighter-colored type, enriched in catchment-derived constituents, interpreted as a flood layer. Comparison of our ¹³⁷Cs-determined layer ages with a catalog of twentieth century earthquakes shows that an earthquake on the Motagua fault in 1976 generated a conspicuous darker-colored turbidite and slumped deposits in separate parts of the lake. The entire earthquake inventory further reveals that mass movements in the lake are triggered at Modified Mercalli Intensities higher than V. Tropical cyclonic depressions known to have affected the lake area had limited effect on the lake, including Hurricane Mitch in 1998. One storm however produced a significantly thicker flood layer in the 1940s. This storm is reportedly the only event to have generated widespread slope failures in the lake catchment. It is thus inferred that abundant landsliding provided large amounts of concentrated sediment to the lake, through hyperpycnal flows.  相似文献