Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling     

Jalal Samia  Arnaud Temme  Arnold K. Bregt  Jakob Wallinga  John Stuiver  Fausto Guzzetti  Francesca Ardizzone  Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2129-2144

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.  相似文献   

A network theory approach for a better understanding of overland flow connectivity          下载免费PDF全文

Rens J. H. Masselink  Tobias Heckmann  Arnaud J. A. M. Temme  Niels S. Anders  Harm P. A. Gooren  Saskia D. Keesstra 《水文研究》2017,31(1):207-220

Hydrological connectivity describes the physical coupling (linkages) of different elements within a landscape regarding (sub‐) surface flows. A firm understanding of hydrological connectivity is important for catchment management applications, for example, habitat and species protection, and for flood resistance and resilience improvement. Thinking about (geomorphological) systems as networks can lead to new insights, which has also been recognized within the scientific community, seeing the recent increase in the use of network (graph) theory within the geosciences. Network theory supports the analysis and understanding of complex systems by providing data structures for modelling objects and their linkages, and a versatile toolbox to quantitatively appraise network structure and properties. The objective of this study was to characterize and quantify overland flow connectivity dynamics on hillslopes in a humid sub‐Mediterranean environment by using a combination of high‐resolution digital‐terrain models, overland flow sensors and a network approach. Results showed that there are significant differences between overland flow connectivity on agricultural areas and semi‐natural shrubs areas. Significant positive correlations between connectivity and precipitation characteristics were found. Significant negative correlations between connectivity and soil moisture were found, most likely because of soil water repellency and/or soil surface crusting. The combination of structural networks and dynamic networks for determining potential connectivity and actual connectivity proved a powerful tool for analysing overland flow connectivity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal evolution of the completeness magnitude of the Icelandic earthquake catalogue from 1991 to 2013     

Francesco Panzera  Arnaud Mignan  Kristin S. Vogfjörð 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(4):615-630

In 1991, a digital seismic monitoring network was installed in Iceland with a digital seismic system and automatic operation. After 20 years of operation, we explore for the first time its nationwide performance by analysing the spatiotemporal variations of the completeness magnitude. We use the Bayesian magnitude of completeness (BMC) method that combines local completeness magnitude observations with prior information based on the density of seismic stations. Additionally, we test the impact of earthquake location uncertainties on the BMC results, by filtering the catalogue using a multivariate analysis that identifies outliers in the hypocentre error distribution. We find that the entire North-to-South active rift zone shows a relatively low magnitude of completeness M_c in the range 0.5–1.0, highlighting the ability of the Icelandic network to detect small earthquakes. This work also demonstrates the influence of earthquake location uncertainties on the spatiotemporal magnitude of completeness analysis.  相似文献   

A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment     

Zhongqiang Liu  Farrokh Nadim  Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal  Arnaud Mignan  Kevin Fleming  Byron Quan Luna 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(2):59-74

The effective management of the risks posed by natural and man-made hazards requires all relevant threats and their interactions to be considered. This paper proposes a three-level framework for multi-risk assessment that accounts for possible hazard and risk interactions. The first level is a flow chart that guides the user in deciding whether a multi-hazard and risk approach is required. The second level is a semi-quantitative approach to explore if a more detailed, quantitative assessment is needed. The third level is a detailed quantitative multi-risk analysis based on Bayesian networks. Examples that demonstrate the application of the method are presented.  相似文献   

Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the north‐west European Alps     

B. Wilhelm  F. Arnaud  P. Sabatier  O. Magand  E. Chapron  T. Courp  K. Tachikawa  B. Fanget  E. Malet  C. Pignol  E. Bard  J. J. Delannoy 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(2):189-199

A high‐resolution sedimentological and geochemical study of a high‐altitude proglacial lake (Lake Blanc, Aiguilles Rouges, 2352 m a.s.l.) revealed 195 turbidites, 190 of which are related to flood events over the last 1400 years. We used the coarsest sediment fraction of each turbidite as a proxy for the intensity of each flood event. Because most flood events at this locality are triggered by localized summer convective precipitation events, the reconstructed sedimentary record reveals changes in the frequency and intensity of such events over the last millennium. Comparisons with other temperature, palaeohydrological and glacier reconstructions in the region suggest that the most intense events occurred during the warmest periods, i.e. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 800–1300) and the current period of global warming. On a multi‐decadal time scale, almost all the flood frequency peaks seem to correspond to warmer periods, whereas multi‐centennial variations in flood frequency appear to follow the regional precipitation pattern. Consequently, this new Alpine flood record provides further evidence of a link between climate warming and an increase in the frequency and intensity of flooding on a multi‐decadal time scale, whereas the centennial variability in flood frequencies is related to regional precipitation patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Non‐intrusive global/local analysis for the study of fine cracking     

Cécile Oliver‐Leblond  Arnaud Delaplace  Frédéric Ragueneau  Benjamin Richard 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(8):973-992

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Extreme rainfall analysis by a stochastic model: impact of the copula choice on the sub-daily rainfall generation   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Philippe Cantet  Patrick Arnaud 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1479-1492

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Reconstruction of the recent history of a large deep prealpine lake (Lake Bourget,France) using subfossil chironomids,diatoms, and organic matter analysis: towards the definition of a lake-specific reference state     

Laurent Millet  Charline Giguet-Covex  Valérie Verneaux  Jean-Claude Druart  Thierry Adatte  Fabien Arnaud 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,44(4):963-978

This paper presents the recent history of a large prealpine lake (Lake Bourget) using chironomids, diatoms and organic matter analysis, and deals with the ability of paleolimnological approach to define an ecological reference state for the lake in the sense of the European Framework Directive. The study at low resolution of subfossil chironomids in a 4-m-long core shows the remarkable stability over the last 2.5 kyrs of the profundal community dominated by a Micropsectra-association until the beginning of the twentieth century, when oxyphilous taxa disappeared. Focusing on this key recent period, a high resolution and multiproxy study of two short cores reveals a progressive evolution of the lake’s ecological state. Until AD 1880, Lake Bourget showed low organic matter content in the deep sediments (TOC less than 1%) and a well-oxygenated hypolimnion that allowed the development of a profundal oxyphilous chironomid fauna (Micropsectra-association). Diatom communities were characteristic of oligotrophic conditions. Around AD 1880, a slight increase in the TOC was the first sign of changes in lake conditions. This was followed by a first limited decline in oligotrophic diatom taxa and the disappearance of two oxyphilous chironomid taxa at the beginning of the twentieth century. The 1940s were a major turning point in recent lake history. Diatom assemblages and accumulation of well preserved planktonic organic matter in the sediment provide evidence of strong eutrophication. The absence of profundal chironomid communities reveals permanent hypolimnetic anoxia. From AD 1995 to 2006, the diatom assemblages suggest a reduction in nutrients, and a return to mesotrophic conditions, a result of improved wastewater management. However, no change in hypolimnion benthic conditions has been shown by either the organic matter or the subfossil chironomid profundal community. Our results emphasize the relevance of the paleolimnological approach for the assessment of reference conditions for modern lakes. Before AD 1900, the profundal Micropsectra-association and the Cyclotella dominated diatom community can be considered as the Lake Bourget reference community, which reflects the reference ecological state of the lake.  相似文献   

On different types of adjustment usable to calculate the parameters of the stream power law     

Alain Demoulin  Arnaud BeckersBenoît Bovy 《Geomorphology》2012,138(1):203-208

Model parameterization through adjustment to field data is a crucial step in the modeling and the understanding of the drainage network response to tectonic or climatic perturbations. Using as a test case a data set of 18 knickpoints that materialize the migration of a 0.7-Ma-old erosion wave in the Ourthe catchment of northern Ardennes (western Europe), we explore the impact of various data fitting on the calibration of the stream power model of river incision, from which a simple knickpoint celerity equation is derived. Our results show that statistical least squares adjustments (or misfit functions) based either on the stream-wise distances between observed and modeled knickpoint positions at time t or on differences between observed and modeled time at the actual knickpoint locations yield significantly different values for the m and K parameters of the model. As there is no physical reason to prefer one of these approaches, an intermediate least-rectangles adjustment might at first glance appear as the best compromise. However, the statistics of the analysis of 200 sets of synthetic knickpoints generated in the Ourthe catchment indicate that the time-based adjustment is the most capable of getting close to the true parameter values. Moreover, this fitting method leads in all cases to an m value lower than that obtained from the classical distance adjustment (for example, 0.75 against 0.86 for the real case of the Ourthe catchment), corresponding to an increase in the non-linear character of the dependence of knickpoint celerity on discharge.  相似文献   

Snow cover monitoring in the Northern Patagonia Icefield using MODIS satellite images (2000–2006)     

Paulina Lopez  Pascal Sirguey  Yves Arnaud  Bernard Pouyaud  Pierre Chevallier 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,61(3-4):103-116

The snow cover of the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI) was monitored after applying the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and the Red/NIR band ratio to 134 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images captured between 2000 and 2006. The final results show that the snow cover extent of the NPI fluctuates a lot in winter, in addition to its seasonal behaviour. The minimum snow cover extent of the period (3600 km²) was observed in March 2000 and the maximum (11,623 km²) in August 2001. We found that temperature accounts for approximately 76% of the variation of the snow cover extent over the entire icefield. We also show two different regimes of winter snow cover fluctuations corresponding to the eastern and the western sides of the icefield. The seasonality of the snow cover on the western side was determined by temperature rather than precipitation, while on the east side the seasonality of the snow cover was influenced by the seasonal behaviour of both temperature and precipitation. This difference can be explained by the two distinct climates: coastal and continental. The fluctuations in the winter snow cover extent were more pronounced and less controlled by temperature on the western side than on the eastern side of the icefield. Snow cover extent was correlated with temperature R² = 0.75 and R² = 0.74 for the western and eastern sides, respectively. Since limited meteorological data are available in this region, our investigation confirmed that the change in snow cover is an interesting climatic indicator over the NPI providing important insights in mass balance comprehension. Since snow and ice were distinguished snow cover fluctuations can be associated to fluctuations in the snow accumulation area of the NPI. In addition, days with minimum snow covers of summer season can be associated to the period in which Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) is the highest.  相似文献