Combining low-carbon economic development and oil exploration in Brazil? An energy–economy assessment     

Julien Lefèvre  William Wills  Jean-Charles Hourcade 《Climate Policy》2018,18(10):1286-1295

Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) pledged under the Paris Agreement has marked a new stage in its climate policy towards strengthening low-carbon economic development beyond the recent drastic cuts in emissions from deforestation. Brazil especially means to limit oil consumption driven by future economic growth and to increase energy efficiency and biofuel use in the transport sector. On the other hand, Brazil still aspires to become a major petroleum province given its huge reserves of ‘pre-salt’ oil. This article aims to clarify under what conditions low-carbon economic development and oil exploration can possibly be combined in Brazil and what would be the energy system, environmental and macroeconomic implications of enabling policies for doing so. To address these questions, an energy–economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Brazilian economy is used to simulate alternative scenarios up to 2030. The results first show that implementing the most recent energy plans, which take into account the new economic reality in Brazil, should lead to over 20% lower domestic CO₂ emissions in 2030 than the indicative NDC target, and to the export of the bulk of newfound crude oil. Second, with the same level of oil production, deeper domestic decarbonization, triggered by additional carbon pricing and sustainable efficiency measures, appears achievable with very small gross domestic product (GDP) loss and maximum oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway. However, (i) extra oil exports may induce net additional emissions outside Brazil and be seen as a perverse incentive and (ii) the economic growth strategy based on high oil exports may hinder the necessary diversification of the Brazilian economy.

Key policy insights

• Low-carbon development goals will strongly interact with oil policy in Brazil.

• The 2030 NDC target should be easy to achieve considering the new economic reality in Brazil.

• Deeper domestic decarbonization is achievable with very limited GDP loss and significant oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway.

• A broad strategic vision is needed to reconcile climate policy, energy policy and other economic development objectives.

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Limited effect of the Quaternary's largest super-eruption (Toba) on land mammals from Southeast Asia     

Julien Louys   《Quaternary Science Reviews》2007,26(25-28):3108-3117

The effect of the Toba super-eruption at 74 kyr on the mammals of Southeast Asia is examined. Although few Late Pleistocene sites from Southeast Asia have been described, an analysis of those which pre- and post-date Toba reveals relatively few species became extinct following the eruption. It is suggested that species survived in refugia immediately following the eruption, and that they repopulated vast areas following a probable short period (i.e. decades to century) of environmental devastation. This study suggests that mammals are more robust at coping with catastrophic events than previously acknowledged, and questions the perceived human monopoly in overcoming ecological adversity.  相似文献   

PHOENIX-2: A New Broadband Spectrometer for Deci- metric and Microwave Radio Bursts – First Results     

Messmer  Peter  Benz  Arnold O.  Monstein  Christian 《Solar physics》1999,187(2):335-345

A broadband radio spectrometer has been put into operation at Bleien, Switzerland, to register the flare emission of the full Sun. In the frequency range of operation, 0.1 to 4.0 GHz, both modes of circular polarization are recorded continuously. The new system, Phoenix-2, has been developed from the experience with the previous Phoenix spectrometer. Improved, computer-controlled focal hardware allows now a complete daily calibration, a more sophisticated calibration procedure, and monitoring of all essential instrumental and environmental parameters. Calibrated data are now usually available the day after observation and are accessible through the Internet. The scientific improvements include a larger frequency range of observation, a larger number of completely recorded events due to full-day registration, more accurate measurements, particularly in circular polarization, and more reliable operation. First observations are presented and quantitative results comparing the calibration with single frequency instruments are reported. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005194314845  相似文献   

Trace metals and radionuclides reveal sediment sources and accumulation rates in Jordan Cove, Connecticut     

Gaboury Benoit  Tim F. Rozan  Peter C. Patton  Chester L. Arnold 《Estuaries and Coasts》1999,22(1):65-80

Many small estuaries are influenced by flow restrictions resulting from transportation rights-of-way and other causes. The biogeochemical functioning and history of such systems can be evaluated through study of their sediments. Ten long and six short cores were collected from the length of Jordan Cove, Connecticut, a Long Island Sound subestuary, and analyzed for stratigraphy, radionuclides (¹⁴C, ²¹⁰Pb, ²²⁶Ra, ¹³⁷Cs, and ⁶⁰Co), and metals (Ag, Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe, and Al). For at least 3,800 yr, rising sea level has gradually inundated Jordan Cove, filling it with mud similar to that currently being deposited there. Long-term sediment accumulation in the cove averaged close to 0.1 cm yr⁻¹ over the last three millennia. Recent sediment accumulation rates decrease inland from 0.84 cm yr⁻¹ to 0.40 cm yr⁻¹, and are slightly faster than relative sea-level rise at this site (0.3 cm yr⁻¹). Similarity of depth distributions of trace metals was used to confirm relative sediment accumulation rates. ⁶⁰Co and Ag are derived from sources outside the cove and its watershed, presumably the Millstone nuclear power plant and regional contaminated sediments, respectively. The combined data suggest that Long Island Sound is an important source of sediment to the cove; a minor part of total sediment is supplied from the local watershed. Trace metal levels are strongly correlated with Fe but not with either organic matter or Al. Sediment quality has declined in the cove over the past 60 yr, but only slightly. Cu, Pb, and Zn data correlate strongly with Fe but not with either organic matter or aluminum. Ratios of Ag to Fe and to trace metals suggest that Ag in the cove is derived almost entirely from Long Island Sound. This result supports the notion that Fenormalized Ag can serve as a better tracer of some kinds of contamination than more common and abundant metals, like Cu, Pb, and Zn. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY085 00008  相似文献   

Simulating Stable Isotope Ratios in Plumes of Groundwater Pollutants with BIOSCREEN‐AT‐ISO          下载免费PDF全文

Patrick Höhener  Zhi M. Li  Maxime Julien  Pierrick Nun  Richard J. Robins  Gérald S. Remaud 《Ground water》2017,55(2):261-267

BIOSCREEN is a well‐known simple tool for evaluating the transport of dissolved contaminants in groundwater, ideal for rapid screening and teaching. This work extends the BIOSCREEN model for the calculation of stable isotope ratios in contaminants. A three‐dimensional exact solution of the reactive transport from a patch source, accounting for fractionation by first‐order decay and/or sorption, is used. The results match those from a previously published isotope model but are much simpler to obtain. Two different isotopes may be computed, and dual isotope plots can be viewed. The dual isotope assessment is a rapidly emerging new approach for identifying process mechanisms in aquifers. Furthermore, deviations of isotope ratios at specific reactive positions with respect to “bulk” ratios in the whole compound can be simulated. This model is named BIOSCREEN‐AT‐ISO and will be downloadable from the journal homepage.  相似文献   

Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?     

Fabio?OrianiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Raj?Mehrotra  Grégoire?Mariethoz  Julien?Straubhaar  Ashish?Sharma  Philippe?Renard 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(2):321-340

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.  相似文献   

Book Review: Glacial Geology: Ice Sheets and Landforms by Matthew R. Bennett and Neil F. Glasser,John Wiley and Sons Ltd,Chichester, 1996. No. of pages: x+364. Price: £19.99 (pb). ISBN 0-471-963445-3     

Neil Arnold 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1997,22(11):1084-1085

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Paired 10Be sampling of polished bedrock and erratic boulders to improve dating of glacial landforms: an example from the Western Alps     

Charlotte Prud'homme  Riccardo Vassallo  Christian Crouzet  Julien Carcaillet  Jean-Louis Mugnier  Joaquin Cortés-Aranda 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(5):1168-1180

Cosmogenic nuclide dating of glacial landforms may lead to ambiguous results for ice retreat histories. The persistence of significant cosmogenic concentrations inherited from previous exposure may increase the apparent exposure ages for polished bedrocks affected by limited erosion under ice and for erratic boulders transported by glaciers and previously exposed in high-altitude rock walls. In contrast, transient burying by moraines, sediments and snow decreases the apparent exposure age. We propose a new sampling strategy, applied to four sites distributed in the Arc and Arve valleys in the Western Alps, to better constrain the factors that can bias exposure ages associated with glacial processes. We used the terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide ¹⁰Be (TCN) to estimate the exposure time from paired sampling of depth profiles in polished bedrock and on overlying erratic boulders. For a given sampling site, the exposure ages for both the polished bedrock and boulder are expected to be the same. However, in six cases out of seven, boulders had significantly higher ¹⁰Be surface concentrations than those of the associated polished surfaces. In present and past glacial processes, the ¹⁰Be distribution with depth for boulders and bedrocks implies the presence of an inheritance concentration of ¹⁰Be. Our study suggests that ¹⁰Be concentrations in erratic boulders and in polished bedrocks provide maximum and minimum exposure ages of the glacial retreat, respectively. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

Climatic and structural controls on Late-glacial and Holocene rockfall occurrence in high-elevated rock walls of the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps)     

Xavi Gallach  Julien Carcaillet  Ludovic Ravanel  Philip Deline  Christophe Ogier  Magali Rossi  Emmanuel Malet  David Garcia-Sellés 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(13):3071-3091

In the Mont Blanc massif (European Western Alps), rockfalls are one of the main natural hazards for alpinists and infrastructure. Rockfall activity after the Little Ice Age is well documented. An increase in frequency during the last three decades is related to permafrost degradation caused by rising air temperatures. In order to understand whether climate exerts a long-term control on rockfall occurrence, a selection of paleo-rockfall scars was dated in the Glacier du Géant basin [>3200 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides. Rockfall occurrence was compared to different climatic and glacial proxies. This study presents 55 new samples (including replicates) and 25 previously-published ages from nine sampling sites. In total, 62 dated rockfall events display ages ranging from 0.03 ± 0.02 ka to 88.40 ± 7.60 ka. Holocene ages and their uncertainties were used to perform a Kernel density function into a continuous dataset displaying rockfall probability per 100 years. Results highlight four Holocene periods of enhanced rockfall occurrence: (i) c. 7–5.7 ka, related to the Holocene Warm Periods; (ii) c. 4.5–4 ka, related to the Sub-boreal Warm Period; (iii) c. 2.3–1.6 ka, related to the Roman Warm Period; and (iv) c. 0.9–0.3 ka, related to the Medieval Warm Period and beginning of the Little Ice Age. Laser and photogrammetric three-dimensional (3D) models of the rock walls were produced to reconstruct the detached volumes from the best-preserved rockfall scars (≤0.91 ± 0.12 ka). A structural study was carried out at the scale of the Glacier du Géant basin using aerial photographs, and at the scale of four selected rock walls using the 3D models. Two main vertical and one horizontal fracture sets were identified. They correspond respectively to alpine shear zones and veins opened-up during long-term exhumation of the Mont Blanc massif. Our study confirms that climate primarily controls rockfall occurrence, and that structural settings, coincident at both the massif and the rock wall scales, control the rock-wall shapes as well as the geometry and volume of the rockfall events. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Multiple-point statistics using multi-resolution images     

Straubhaar  Julien  Renard  Philippe  Chugunova  Tatiana 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(2):251-273

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Multiple-point statistics (MPS) is a simulation technique allowing to generate images that reproduce the spatial features present in a...  相似文献