Climatic and structural controls on Late-glacial and Holocene rockfall occurrence in high-elevated rock walls of the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps)     

Xavi Gallach  Julien Carcaillet  Ludovic Ravanel  Philip Deline  Christophe Ogier  Magali Rossi  Emmanuel Malet  David Garcia-Sellés 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(13):3071-3091

In the Mont Blanc massif (European Western Alps), rockfalls are one of the main natural hazards for alpinists and infrastructure. Rockfall activity after the Little Ice Age is well documented. An increase in frequency during the last three decades is related to permafrost degradation caused by rising air temperatures. In order to understand whether climate exerts a long-term control on rockfall occurrence, a selection of paleo-rockfall scars was dated in the Glacier du Géant basin [>3200 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides. Rockfall occurrence was compared to different climatic and glacial proxies. This study presents 55 new samples (including replicates) and 25 previously-published ages from nine sampling sites. In total, 62 dated rockfall events display ages ranging from 0.03 ± 0.02 ka to 88.40 ± 7.60 ka. Holocene ages and their uncertainties were used to perform a Kernel density function into a continuous dataset displaying rockfall probability per 100 years. Results highlight four Holocene periods of enhanced rockfall occurrence: (i) c. 7–5.7 ka, related to the Holocene Warm Periods; (ii) c. 4.5–4 ka, related to the Sub-boreal Warm Period; (iii) c. 2.3–1.6 ka, related to the Roman Warm Period; and (iv) c. 0.9–0.3 ka, related to the Medieval Warm Period and beginning of the Little Ice Age. Laser and photogrammetric three-dimensional (3D) models of the rock walls were produced to reconstruct the detached volumes from the best-preserved rockfall scars (≤0.91 ± 0.12 ka). A structural study was carried out at the scale of the Glacier du Géant basin using aerial photographs, and at the scale of four selected rock walls using the 3D models. Two main vertical and one horizontal fracture sets were identified. They correspond respectively to alpine shear zones and veins opened-up during long-term exhumation of the Mont Blanc massif. Our study confirms that climate primarily controls rockfall occurrence, and that structural settings, coincident at both the massif and the rock wall scales, control the rock-wall shapes as well as the geometry and volume of the rockfall events. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Vehicle tax policies and new passenger car CO2 performance in EU member states     

Denis Dineen  Brian Ó Gallachóir 《Climate Policy》2018,18(4):396-412

This article explores the causes for differences in the average CO₂ emissions intensity of the new passenger car (NPC) fleet in member states (MS) across Europe. Although EU policies mitigating CO₂ emissions from NPCs have been in place since 1999, MS strongly diverge in the absolute amount and relative change in emissions over the last decade. The authors employ a qualitative approach to analyse the factors, in particular national vehicle taxes, contributing to this divergence and the relative contribution of national and European policies in reducing national CO₂ emissions from NPCs. The analysis shows that there has been a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions intensity of NPCs since 2007 across most MS, compared with the six years previous to that date. This would indicate that EU-wide policies, such as the CO₂ vehicles regulation, along with the economic recession in 2008, have influenced national NPC CO₂ emissions. Generally, countries with CO₂-differentiated vehicle taxes are observed as more likely to have achieved greater reductions in CO₂ emissions. However, over the same period there have been many confounding factors, such as economic instability in the EU, that also influence NPC emissions. Using more detailed case study analyses of six countries, the authors find that there is scope for well-designed national vehicle tax policies to drive NPC emissions down further than the EU average. In countries with the highest success rate, such as the Netherlands, the design of the vehicle tax, as part of a well-aligned policy package, has been very important in delivering the biggest reductions in CO₂ emissions from NPCs.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The transport sector continues to be an intractable source of CO₂ emissions. Governments around the world are seeking effective policies to deal with the increase in passenger car CO₂ emissions appropriate to their own circumstances. This article examines the experience of EU MS with CO₂-differentiated vehicle taxes in reducing CO₂ emissions in the context of other national and international contributing factors. It should therefore both be useful to policy makers and contribute to climate policy research in general.  相似文献   

Energy-intensive manufacturing sectors in China: policy priorities for achieving climate mitigation and energy conservation targets     

Li Li  Brian Ó Gallachóir  Hua Cai  Jian Zhang 《Climate Policy》2019,19(5):598-610

In this study, a long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was built to evaluate the relative priority of three kinds of policies expected to be implemented for the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors (EIMS) in China to achieve CO₂ mitigation and energy conservation targets. These policies encourage (1) the use of more electricity instead of coal; (2) the continuous improvement of energy efficiency; and (3) a shift to other less energy-demanding sectors. The results indicate that the policy of shifting economic activity from the EIMS to other sectors is most helpful for China to achieve its targets of mitigating CO₂ emissions and conserving energy. Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity can help China to achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption. No single policy will allow China to achieve all the targets, emphasizing the need for an integrated policy design that combines all types of policies.

Key policy insights

• The policy of encouraging a shift to less energy intensive industries should receive the highest priority in aiming to peak China's energy-related CO₂ emissions as early as possible, and lower overall CO₂ emissions, coal consumption and primary energy consumption in the long run.

• Encouraging a shift to electricity should go hand-in-hand with greater energy efficiency, otherwise such a policy cannot help China significantly reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions.

• Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity should receive the highest priority in helping China achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption.

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Timing of rockfalls in the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps): evidence from surface exposure dating with cosmogenic <Superscript>10</Superscript>Be     

Xavi Gallach  Ludovic Ravanel  Markus Egli  Dagmar Brandova  Michael Schaepman  Marcus Christl  Stephan Gruber  Philip Deline  Julien Carcaillet  François Pallandre 《Landslides》2018,15(10):1991-2000

Rockfalls and rock avalanches are a recurrent process in high mountain areas like the Mont Blanc massif. These processes are surveyed due to the hazard they present for infrastructure and alpinists. While rockfalls and rock avalanches have been documented for the last 150 years, we know very little about their frequency since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In order to improve our understanding, it is imperative to date them on a longer timescale. A pilot campaign using Terrestrial Cosmogenic Nuclide (TCN) dating of five samples was carried out in 2006 at the Aiguille du Midi (3842 m a.s.l.). In 2011, a larger scale study (20 samples) was carried out in five other test sites in the Mont Blanc massif. This paper presents the exposure ages of the 2011 TCN study as well as the updated exposure ages of the 2006 study using newer TCN dating parameters. Most of these exposure ages lie within the Holocene but three ages are Pleistocene (59.87?±?6.10 ka for the oldest). A comparison of these ages with air temperature and glacier cover proxies explored the possible relationship between the most active rockfall periods and the warmest periods of the Holocene: two clusters of exposure ages have been detected, corresponding to the Middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 ka) and the Roman Warm Period (c. 2 ka) climate periods. Some recent rockfalls have also been dated (<?0.56 ka).  相似文献   

Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement     

James Glynn  Maurizio Gargiulo  Alessandro Chiodi  Paul Deane  Fionn Rogan  Brian Ó Gallachóir 《Climate Policy》2019,19(1):30-42

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO₂ by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.

Key policy insights

• Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.

• The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.

• Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.

• Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.

• Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO₂ emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.

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