A study of the predictability of sea surface temperature over the tropics     

Mingyue Chen  Arun Kumar  Wanqiu Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(7-8):1767-1776

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North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction     

Susmitha Joseph  A. K. Sahai  S. Sharmila  S. Abhilash  N. Borah  R. Chattopadhyay  P. A. Pillai  M. Rajeevan  Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(7-8):2049-2065

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Long‐term change of daily and multi‐daily precipitation in southern Sweden          下载免费PDF全文

Lars Bengtsson  Arun Rana 《水文研究》2014,28(6):2897-2911

Daily rain series from southern Sweden with records dating back to the 1870s have been analysed to investigate the trends of daily and multi‐day precipitation of different return periods with emphasis on the extremes. Probabilities of extreme storms were determined as continuously changing values based on 25 years of data. An extra set of data was used to investigate changes in Skåne, the southernmost peninsula of Sweden. Another 30‐year data set of more than 200 stations of a dense gauge network in Skåne was used to investigate the relation between very large daily rainfall and annual precipitation. The annual precipitation has increased significantly all over southern Sweden due to increased winter precipitation. There is a trend of increasing maximum annual daily precipitation at only one station, where the annual maximum often occurs in winter. The number of events with a short return period is increasing, but the number of more extreme events has not increased. Daily and multi‐daily design storms of long return periods determined from extreme value analysis with updating year by year are not higher today than during the last 100 years. The largest daily storms are not related to stations with annual rainfall but seem to occur randomly. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Preface to CFSv2 topical collection     

Jin Huang  Annarita Mariotti  Jim Kinter  Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):2309-2309

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Climate adaptation,local institutions,and rural livelihoods: A comparative study of herder communities in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia,China     

Jun Wang  Daniel G. Brown  Arun Agrawal 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1673-1683

Climate variability has been evident on the Mongolian plateau in recent decades. Livelihood adaptation to climate variability is important for local sustainable development. This paper applies an analytical framework focused on adaptation, institutions, and livelihoods to study climate adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands. A household survey was designed and implemented in each of three broad vegetation types in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. The analytical results show that livelihood adaptation strategies of herders vary greatly across the border between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. Local institutions played important roles in shaping and facilitating livelihood adaptation strategies of herders. Mobility and communal pooling were the two key categories of adaptation strategies in Mongolia, and they were shaped and facilitated by local communal institutions. Storage, livelihood diversification, and market exchange were the three key categories of adaptation strategies in Inner Mongolia, and they were mainly shaped and facilitated by local government and market institutions. Local institutions enhanced but also at times undermined adaptive capacity of herder communities in the two countries, but in different ways. Sedentary grazing has increased livelihood vulnerability of herders to climate variability and change. With grazing sedentarization, the purchase and storage of forage has become an important strategy of herders to adapt to the highly variable climate. The multilevel statistical models of forage purchasing behaviors show that the strategies of livestock management, household financial capital, environmental (i.e., precipitation and vegetation growth) variability, and the status of pasture degradation were the major determinants of this adaptation strategy.  相似文献   

Satellite detection of thermal precursors of Yamnotri,Ravar and Dalbandin earthquakes   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Saraf  Arun K.  Rawat  Vineeta  Das  Josodhir  Zia  Mohammed  Sharma  Kanika 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(2):861-872

Prior to the occurrence of an earthquake, the region undergoes intensive physiochemical changes. Such changes trigger degassing charge generation leading to positive change in the thermal regime and consequently creation of an earthquake preparation zone. These changes in thermal regime can be detected by the thermal sensors onboard various polar orbiting satellites. Recent researches have demonstrated that thermal infrared sensors onboard satellites (e.g., NOAA-AVHRR and Terra/Aqua-MODIS) can detect temporal transient thermal infrared anomalies prior to an earthquake. The paper presents satellite-based thermal observations associated with Yamnotri (July 22, 2007, India), Ravar (October 14, 2004, Iran) and Dalbandin (January 19, 2011, Pakistan) earthquakes. In the case of Yamnotri earthquake, the region attained around 5–8°C higher than the normal temperature on July 21, 2007 in the area, just 1 day before the earthquake. Whereas, in the case of Ravar earthquake, the region has shown 5–7°C higher temperature on October 06, 2004 about 6 days before the occurrence of the main earthquake event. Dalbandin earthquake showed a maxima on January 17, 2011, just 2 days before the main shock with the raised temperature of around 8–10°C. Another common observation in all these earthquakes is the disappearance of short-term transient thermal anomaly just before the main shock.  相似文献   

Enigmatic aspects of the early universe: possibility of a ‘pre-big bang phase’!     

C. Sivaram  Arun Kenath 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,333(1):9-10

In this paper it is suggested that inclusion of mutual gravitational interactions among the particles in the early dense universe can lead to a ‘pre-big bang’ scenario, with particle masses greater than the Planck mass implying an accelerating phase of the universe, which then goes into the radiation phase when the masses fall below the Planck mass. The existence of towers of states of such massive particles (i.e. multiples of Planck mass) as implied in various unified theories, provides rapid acceleration in the early universe, similar to the usual inflation scenario, but here the expansion rate goes over ‘smoothly’ to the radiation dominated universe when temperature becomes lower than the Planck temperature.  相似文献   

Energy-Dependent Timing of Thermal Emission in Solar Flares     

Rajmal Jain  Arun Kumar Awasthi  Arvind Singh Rajpurohit  Markus J. Aschwanden 《Solar physics》2011,270(1):137-149

We report solar flare plasma to be multi-thermal in nature based on the theoretical model and study of the energy-dependent timing of thermal emission in ten M-class flares. We employ high-resolution X-ray spectra observed by the Si detector of the “Solar X-ray Spectrometer” (SOXS). The SOXS onboard the Indian GSAT-2 spacecraft was launched by the GSLV-D2 rocket on 8 May 2003. Firstly we model the spectral evolution of the X-ray line and continuum emission flux F(ε) from the flare by integrating a series of isothermal plasma flux. We find that the multi-temperature integrated flux F(ε) is a power-law function of ε with a spectral index (γ)≈−4.65. Next, based on spectral-temporal evolution of the flares we find that the emission in the energy range E=4 – 15 keV is dominated by temperatures of T=12 – 50 MK, while the multi-thermal power-law DEM index (δ) varies in the range of −4.4 and −5.7. The temporal evolution of the X-ray flux F(ε,t) assuming a multi-temperature plasma governed by thermal conduction cooling reveals that the temperature-dependent cooling time varies between 296 and 4640 s and the electron density (n _e) varies in the range of n _e=(1.77 – 29.3)×10¹⁰ cm⁻³. Employing temporal evolution technique in the current study as an alternative method for separating thermal from nonthermal components in the energy spectra, we measure the break-energy point, ranging between 14 and 21±1.0 keV.  相似文献   

Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of geoinformatics and Markov chain model: A case study on sub-Himalayan town Gangtok,India     

Anirban Mukhopadhyay  Arun Mondal  Sandip Mukherjee  Dipam Khatua  Subhajit Ghosh  Debasish Mitra  Tuhin Ghosh 《Journal of Earth System Science》2014,123(6):1349-1360

In the Himalayan states of India, with increasing population and activities, large areas of forested land are being converted into other land-use features. There is a definite cause and effect relationship between changing practice for development and changes in land use. So, an estimation of land use dynamics and a futuristic trend pattern is essential. A combination of geospatial and statistical techniques were applied to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of Sikkim. Multi-temporal satellite imageries of the Landsat series were used to map the changes in land use of Gangtok from 1990 to 2010. Only three major land use classes (built-up area and bare land, step cultivated area, and forest) were considered as the most dynamic land use practices of Gangtok. The conventional supervised classification, and spectral indices-based thresholding using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were applied along with the accuracy assessments. Markov modelling was applied for prediction of land use/land cover change and was validated. SAVI provides the most accurate estimate, i.e., the difference between predicted and actual data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more forest areas will be converted for step cultivation by the year 2020.  相似文献   

Ground deformational studies using ALOS-PALSAR data between 2007 and 2010 of the central Kutch area,Gujarat, India     

Mohammed Zia  Kanika Sharma  Arun Kumar Saraf  Josodhir Das  Suman Baral  Mrinmoy Das 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):1379-1388

The central Kutch region of Gujarat, India, experienced a M7.7 earthquake on January 26, 2001, causing large-scale ground deformations including a huge loss of lives and infrastructure. The rupture of a hidden reverse fault was the reason for this intense tectonic activity. The post-seismic ground deformations, attributed to the relaxation phase of a stressed crustal layer, have been analyzed using a pair of Advanced Land Observation Satellite-Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images. The InSAR images were obtained in 2007 and 2010, covering an area around Bhuj. It falls on the Kutch Mainland Fault and Katrol Bhuj Fault. Using the ADORE-DORIS software, interferometric imagery has successfully been generated, covering the study area. This allowed making interesting geological inferences. Three different regions in the study area elicited countable visible colored fringes, indicating different amounts of positive and negative ground deformations (surface motion with respect to the satellite). They occurred within the InSAR data acquisition dates. The region around Bhuj and to the north and east of Bhuj showed top surface deformations of about 35, 35, and 24 cm, respectively. The synoptic view of the interferometric image of the study area suggests two crustal fault lines running to the north and south of Bhuj city. The Institute of Seismological Research, geophysical and Global Positioning System data, indicates that huge seismic events occurred during the year 2007–2010 and supports the observational inference of clustering of interferometric fringes to the E and NE of the study area.  相似文献