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21.
Inter-annual variations of phytoplankton abundance and community organization were observed over a two-decade period along with the ancillary parameters at the land–ocean boundary associated with the Sundarban mangrove forest (21°32′ and 22°40′ N and 88°05′ and 89° E), along the NE Coast of the Bay of Bengal. The number of definable Bacillariophyceae species exceeded Dinophyceae taxa, and the total number of bloom-forming species declined from a maximum of ten in 2000 and a minimum of two in 2007. Blooms of the diatom Coscinodiscus radiatus were common in 2000 and 2007. Tide cycles and the onset of the monsoon season played important roles in diurnal and seasonal variability of phytoplankton. Phytoplankton biovolume showed seasonality, with the highest levels during post-monsoon periods and lowest levels during the monsoon period. Phytoplankton abundance was correlated to rainfall patterns, which may be altered by long-term changes in climate.  相似文献   
22.
An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001–2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.  相似文献   
23.
In this paper, the leading modes of ocean temperature anomalies (OTA) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean are analyzed and their connection with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and interdecadal variation is investigated. The first two leading modes of OTA are connected with the different phases of the canonical ENSO and display asymmetric features of ENSO evolution. The third leading mode depicts a tripole pattern with opposite variation of OTA above the thermocline in the central Pacific to that along the thermocline in the eastern and western Pacific. This mode is found to be associated with so-called ENSO-Modoki. Insignificant correlations of this mode with the first two leading modes suggest that ENSO-Modoki may be a mode that is independent to the canonical ENSO and also has longer time scales compared with the canonical ENSO. The fourth mode reflects a warming (cooling) tendency above (below) the thermocline since 2000. Both the first and second modes have a large contribution to the interdecadal change in thermocline during 1979–2012. Also, the analysis also documents that both ENSO and OTA shifted into higher frequency since 2000 compared with that during 1979–1999. Interestingly, the ENSO-Modoki related OTA mode does not have any trend or significant interdecadal shift during 1979–2012. In addition, it is shown that first four EOF modes seem robust before and after 1999/2000, suggesting that the interdecadal shift of the climate system in the tropical Pacific is mainly a frequency shift and the changes in spatial pattern are relatively small, although the mean states over two periods experienced some significant changes.  相似文献   
24.
An intriguing feature associated with ‘breaks’ in the Indian summer monsoon is the occurrence of intense/flood-producing precipitation confined to central-eastern parts of the Himalayan (CEH) foothills and north-eastern parts of India. Past studies have documented various large-scale circulation aspects associated with monsoon-breaks, however the dynamical mechanisms responsible for anomalous precipitation enhancement over CEH foothills remain unclear. This problem is investigated using diagnostic analyses of observed and reanalysis products and high-resolution model simulations. The present findings show that the anomalous precipitation enhancement over the CEH foothills during monsoon-breaks emerges as a consequence of interactions between southward intruding mid-latitude westerly troughs and the South Asian monsoon circulation in its weak phase. These interactions facilitate intensification of mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity and strong ascending motion over the CEH foothills, so as to promote deep convection and concentrated rainfall activity over the region during monsoon-breaks. Mesoscale orographic effects additionally tend to amplify the vertical motions and precipitation over the CEH foothills as evidenced from the high-resolution model simulations. It is further noted from the model simulations that the coupling between precipitation and circulation during monsoon-breaks can produce nearly a threefold increase of total precipitation over the CEH foothills and neighborhood as opposed to active-monsoon conditions.  相似文献   
25.
This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.  相似文献   
26.
We report results of 9 years of GPS measurements of crustal deformation at Imphal, Manipur, a site located in the Indo-Burmese wedge of northwest Sunda arc. The analysis of these measurements suggests that the site moves at a rate of about 36.3±0.5 mm/year towards N55° in the ITRF2008. With respect to the Indian plate it moves at a rate of 16.7 mm/year towards N222°, i.e., predominantly towards southwest. The site is located about 15 km east of the Churachandpur Mao fault (CMF), which is reported to accommodate part of the India-Sunda motion. The site motion is not significantly affected by the earthquakes that occurred in the nearby region. However, the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake caused a coseismic displacement of ~ 3–5 mm predominantly towards southwest. The site motion is almost linear, with some seasonal variation, and does not show any evidence of accelerated slip or slow earthquake on the CMF or along the plate boundary.  相似文献   
27.
With a 2.4 million people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), India is among the countries in the world most vulnerable to the spread of HIV. This study focuses on understanding what makes female college students (ages 18–24) in Kolkata, India willing to comply with HIV/AIDS preventive measures; these students are widely believed to be at low risk of infection with HIV. Through a questionnaire survey, the data used in this study was collected from 232 female students attending five higher education institutes. Multiple regression analysis reveals that religion, household income, perception of whether preventive measures would hamper freedom, and respondents’ perception of the effectiveness of preventive measures all influence the students’ willingness to comply with preventive measures. Based on its findings, the study makes several recommendations to improve HIV/AIDS prevention in Kolkata and West Bengal, India.  相似文献   
28.
Immediately following the May 2011 tornado, the city of Joplin, Missouri, initiated recovery efforts to rebuild the part of the community devastated by this event. In doing so, city officials introduced two new safety measures and recommended several others. The main objective of this paper is to explore the tornado survivors' compliance with the safety features recommended by the Joplin city authorities. Face‐to‐face interviews, as well as other methods, were used to survey respondents who were living within the tornado path (damage zones) at the time of the tornado. Results showed that 43 percent of all respondents implemented at least one recommended tornado measure in rebuild or repair their destroyed/damaged homes. Further, it was found that three variables considered here— rebuild or repair, damage zone category, and perceived tornado risk—were all significant contributors to a homeowner's decision to implement recommended tornado safety measures. The paper concludes with a recommendation for expanding tornado safety education among the respondents.  相似文献   
29.
In Australia, Coal Seam Gas (CSG) is a relatively new source of natural gas commonly advocated as a lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alternative to coal. This study investigates how GHG emissions have been, and potentially could be, assessed within the Australian CSG industry. The research involved a document analysis of several Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) and consultant reports prepared as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process for major CSG projects in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (Qld). There were found to be inconsistencies in the conduct of greenhouse assessment by the CSG industry, including how complete and transparent assessments were, as well as how effectively they addressed project emission intensity and cumulative impacts. There were also found to be large inconsistencies between assessments carried out for Qld projects and those for NSW projects, likely because of differences in how assessment requirements are applied by planning bodies. This study also highlights how alternative assessment approaches, such as Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), have potential to enable a broader and more consistent understanding of emission sources that cross a range of geographical and project boundaries.  相似文献   
30.
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