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Bin Pei Weichiang Pang Firat Y. Testik Nadarajah Ravichandran Fangqian Liu 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):375-403
Combined effects of hurricane wind and surge can pose significant threats to coastal cities. Although current design codes consider the joint occurrence of wind and surge, information on site-specific joint distributions of hurricane wind and surge along the US Coast is still sparse and limited. In this study, joint hazard maps for combined hurricane wind and surge for Charleston, South Carolina (SC), were developed. A stochastic Markov chain hurricane simulation program was utilized to generate 50,000 years of full-track hurricane events. The surface wind speeds and surge heights from individual hurricanes were computed using the Georgiou’s wind field model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, respectively. To validate the accuracy of the SLOSH model, the simulated surge levels were compared to the surge levels calculated by another state-of-the-art storm surge model, ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation), and the actual observed water elevations from historical hurricane events. Good agreements were found between the simulated and observed water elevations. The model surface wind speeds were also compared with the design wind speeds in ASCE 7-10 and were found to agree well with the design values. Using the peak wind speeds and maximum surge heights, the joint hazard surfaces and the joint hazard maps for Charleston, SC, were developed. As part of this study, an interactive computer program, which can be used to obtain the joint wind speed and surge height distributions for any location in terms of latitude and longitude in Charleston area, was created. These joint hazard surfaces and hazard maps can be used in a multi-hazard design or risk assessment framework to consider the combined effects of hurricane wind and surge. 相似文献
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Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Over the past several decades, weather radar has become an indispensable tool in flood forecasting studies, especially in ungauged regions. However, the... 相似文献
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Mineral resource evaluation requires defining geological rock-type domains. The traditional simulation methods have serious limitations for applications to large numbers of domains, which have complex contact relations. Plurigaussian simulation is an effective method which can be applied, in a simple way, to any number of domains, using both local and global geological information to infer the distributions of rock types. This work not only presents the application of the plurigaussian simulation method to the Balya lead-zinc deposit, but also assesses the spatially varying rock type proportions, and accounts for uncertainties between them. These parameters are extremely important for mining deposits, since the mineralizations of interest generally occur only in certain rock types. Furthermore, being able to model the different geological rock types is vital to good mine operations, production planning, and management. The results indicate that the plurigaussian method correctly reproduces the different orientations of the individual rock types, as seen in drill holes, and the proportion of each rock type, even if this varies in space. 相似文献
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Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for drought forecasting 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Ulker Guner Bacanli Mahmut Firat Fatih Dikbas 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(8):1143-1154
Drought causes huge losses in agriculture and has many negative influences on natural ecosystems. In this study, the applicability
of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for drought forecasting and quantitative value of drought indices, the Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI), is investigated. For this aim, 10 rainfall gauging stations located in Central Anatolia, Turkey
are selected as study area. Monthly mean rainfall and SPI values are used for constructing the ANFIS forecasting models. For
all stations, data sets include a total of 516 data records measured between in 1964 and 2006 years and data sets are divided
into two subsets, training and testing. Different ANFIS forecasting models for SPI at time scales 1–12 months were trained
and tested. The results of ANFIS forecasting models and observed values are compared and performances of models were evaluated.
Moreover, the best fit models have been also trained and tested by Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNN). The results demonstrate
that ANFIS can be successfully applied and provide high accuracy and reliability for drought forecasting. 相似文献
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The effectiveness of coagulation (at pH values of 6, 7.5, and 9), flocculation (at pH 9), and coagulation plus flocculation (at pH 9) on turbidity removal from natural stone (travertine) processing wastewaters (NSPW) were examined by applying classical sedimentation tests. FeCl3·6 H2O, AlCl3, and Al2(SO4)3·16 H2O were used as coagulants and a polyacrylamide based anionic polymer was used as the flocculant. In this way, it was found that the coagulation method alone was not sufficient to purify NSPW, whereas flocculation and coagulation plus flocculation methods provided superior purification. Among the coagulants used, AlCl3 gave the best result in terms of turbidity removal by coagulation from NSPW at pH 6 and 9, whereas the turbidity removal performances of the three coagulants were almost identical at pH 7.5. In addition, relatively low pH (i. e., pH 6) improved the purification performance of all coagulants. During coagulation of NSPW at pH 6, a charge neutralization mechanism played a decisive role in turbidity removal. However, in neutral (pH 7.5) and slightly basic (pH 9) media, a sweep coagulation mechanism was predominant. For flocculation of NSPW, the basic mechanism comprised of polymer bridging. 相似文献
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Mahmut Firat Mahmud Güngör 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(2):259-270
Accurate forecasting of sediment is an important issue for reservoir design and water pollution control in rivers and reservoirs.
In this study, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach is used to construct monthly sediment forecasting
system. To illustrate the applicability of ANFIS method the Great Menderes basin is chosen as the study area. The models with
various input structures are constructed for the purpose of identification of the best structure. The performance of the ANFIS
models in training and testing sets are compared with the observed data. To get more accurate evaluation of the results ANFIS
models, the best fit model structures are also tested by artificial neural networks (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR)
methods. The results of three methods are compared, and it is observed that the ANFIS is preferable and can be applied successfully
because it provides high accuracy and reliability for forecasting of monthly total sediment. 相似文献
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Faruk?AydinEmail author Axel?K.?Schmitt Wolfgang?Siebel Mustafa?S?nmez Yal??n?Ersoy Abdurrahman?Lermi Kadir?Dirik Robert?Duncan 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(5):1078
The late Neogene to Quaternary Cappadocian Volcanic Province (CVP) in central Anatolia is one of the most impressive volcanic fields of Turkey because of its extent and spectacular erosionally sculptured landscape. The late Neogene evolution of the CVP started with the eruption of extensive andesitic-dacitic lavas and ignimbrites with minor basaltic lavas. This stage was followed by Quaternary bimodal volcanism. Here, we present geochemical, isotopic (Sr–Nd–Pb and δ18O isotopes) and geochronological (U–Pb zircon and Ar–Ar amphibole and whole-rock ages) data for bimodal volcanic rocks of the Ni?de Volcanic Complex (NVC) in the western part of the CVP to determine mantle melting dynamics and magmatic processes within the overlying continental crust during the Quaternary. Geochronological data suggest that the bimodal volcanic activity in the study area occurred between ca. 1.1 and ca. 0.2 Ma (Pleistocene) and comprises (1) mafic lavas consisting of basalts, trachybasalts, basaltic andesites and scoria lapilli fallout deposits with mainly basaltic composition, (2) felsic lavas consisting of mostly rhyolites and pumice lapilli fall-out and surge deposits with dacitic to rhyolitic composition. The most mafic sample is basalt from a monogenetic cone, which is characterized by 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7038, 143Nd/144Nd = 0.5128, 206Pb/204Pb = 18.80, 207Pb/204Pb = 15.60 and 208Pb/204Pb = 38.68, suggesting a moderately depleted signature of the mantle source. Felsic volcanic rocks define a narrow range of 143Nd/144Nd isotope ratios (0.5126–0.5128) and are homogeneous in Pb isotope composition (206Pb/204Pb = 18.84–18.87, 207Pb/204Pb = 15.64–15.67 and 208Pb/204Pb = 38.93–38.99). 87Sr/86Sr isotopic compositions of mafic (0.7038–0.7053) and felsic (0.7040–0.7052) samples are similar, reflecting a common mantle source. The felsic rocks have relatively low zircon δ18O values (5.6 ± 0.6 ‰) overlapping mantle values (5.3 ± 0.3 %), consistent with an origin by fractional crystallization from a mafic melt with very minor continental crustal contamination. The geochronological and geochemical data suggest that mafic and felsic volcanic rocks of the NVC are genetically closely related to each other. Mafic rocks show a positive trend between 87Sr/86Sr and Th, suggesting simultaneous assimilation and fractional crystallization, whereas the felsic rocks are characterized by a flat or slightly negative variation. High 87Sr/86Sr gneisses are a potential crustal contaminant of the mafic magmas, but the comparatively low and invariant 87Sr/86Sr in the felsic volcanics suggests that these evolved dominantly by fractional crystallization. Mantle-derived basaltic melts, which experienced low degree of crustal assimilation, are proposed to be the parent melt of the felsic volcanics. Geochronological and geochemical results combined with regional geological and geophysical data suggest that bimodal volcanism of the NVC and the CVP, in general, developed in a post-collisional extensional tectonic regime that is caused by ascending asthenosphere, which played a key role during magma genesis. 相似文献
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Cem Tokatli Arzu Çiçek Özgür Emiroğlu Naime Arslan Esengül Köse Hayri Dayioğlu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(5):2185-2197
Emet Stream is one of the most important branches of Uluabat Lake (Ramsar area) and also one of Turkey’s most important river systems. In addition to the geologic structure of the basin, Harmancik Chromium Mines are one of the most important inorganic pollution sources for the basin and also for Uluabat Lake. In the present study, water, sediment and fish (Squalius cii, Capoeta tinca and Barbus oligolepis) samples were collected seasonally from eight stations (one of them was on the Kinik Stream where the Harmancik Chromium Mines is located on and one of them was on the Dursunbey Stream) on the Emet Stream Basin. Some limnological parameters (pH, conductivity and total hardness) in water and Cr, Ca, Mg, Ni and Mn levels in biotic (muscle, gill, liver and kidney tissues of fishes) and abiotic (water and sediment) components of basin were determined to evaluate the effects of Harmancik Chromium Mines on the system. Cluster Analysis, Factor Analysis, Pearson Correlation Index, One Way Anova Tests, Scatter dot Comparing and Matrix plot Distribution Diagrams were applied to the results in order to estimate the data properly. Water samples were evaluated according to the water quality criteria for Turkey and sediment samples were evaluated according to the sediment quality criteria. According to data obtained, statistically significance differences were identified between Kinik and Emet Streams according to Cr and Ni accumulations in water and sediment. Chromium levels of Kinik Stream were extremely higher an average of 153 times for water and 10 times for sediment than uncontaminated stations. Water and sediment quality of Emet Stream were decreasing after falling the Kinik Stream and increasing after falling the Dursunbey Stream. It was also determined that, the amount of chromium in muscle tissues of three fish species were much higher than the limit value of 0.15 mg kg?1 that FAO identified. 相似文献
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Hydrogeochemical and isotopic characteristics of the Ilica geothermal system (Erzurum,Turkey) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this paper, the hydrochemical isotopic characteristics of samples collected from geothermal springs in the Ilica geothermal field, Eastern Anatolia of Turkey, are examined and described. Low-temperature geothermal system of Ilica (Erzurum, Turkey) located along the Eastern Anatolian fault zone was investigated for hydrogeochemical and isotopic characteristics. The study of ionic and isotopic contents shows that the thermal water of Ilica is mainly, locally fed by groundwater, which changes chemically and isotopically during its circulation within the major fault zone reaching depths. The thermal spring has a temperature of 29–39 °C, with electrical conductivity ranging from 4,000 to 7,510 µS/cm and the thermal water is of Na–HCO3–Cl water type. The chemical geothermometers applied in the Ilica geothermal waters yielded a maximum reservoir temperature of 142 °C according to the silica geothermometers. The thermal waters are undersaturated with respect to gypsum, anhydrite and halite, and oversaturated with respect to dolomite. The dolomite mineral possibly caused scaling when obtaining the thermal waters in the study area. According to the enthalpy chloride-mixing model, cold water to the thermal water-mixing ratio is changing between 69.8 and 75 %. The δ18O–δ2H compositions obviously indicate meteoric origin of the waters. Thermal water springs derived from continental precipitation falling on to higher elevations in the study area. The δ13C ratio for dissolved inorganic carbonate in the waters lies between 4.63 and 6.48 ‰. In low-temperature waters carbon is considered as originating from volcanic (mantle) CO2. 相似文献