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51.
Statistical models are one of the most preferred methods among many landslide susceptibility assessment methods. As landslide
occurrences and influencing factors have spatial variations, global models like neural network or logistic regression (LR)
ignore spatial dependence or autocorrelation characteristics of data between the observations in susceptibility assessment.
However, to assess the probability of landslide within a specified period of time and within a given area, it is important
to understand the spatial correlation between landslide occurrences and influencing factors. By including these relations,
the predictive ability of the developed model increases. In this respect, spatial regression (SR) and geographically weighted
regression (GWR) techniques, which consider spatial variability in the parameters, are proposed in this study for landslide
hazard assessment to provide better realistic representations of landslide susceptibility. The proposed model was implemented
to a case study area from More and Romsdal region of Norway. Topographic (morphometric) parameters (slope angle, slope aspect,
curvature, plan, and profile curvatures), geological parameters (geological formations, tectonic uplift, and lineaments),
land cover parameter (vegetation coverage), and triggering factor (precipitation) were considered as landslide influencing
factors. These influencing factors together with past rock avalanche inventory in the study region were considered to obtain
landslide susceptibility maps by using SR and LR models. The comparisons of susceptibility maps obtained from SR and LR show
that SR models have higher predictive performance. In addition, the performances of SR and LR models at the local scale were
investigated by finding the differences between GWR and SR and GWR and LR maps. These maps which can be named as comparison
maps help to understand how the models estimate the coefficients at local scale. In this way, the regions where SR and LR
models over or under estimate the landslide hazard potential were identified. 相似文献
52.
The collapse of the Olive View Hospital Psychiatric Day Clinic is studied using three biaxial force-deflection models to represent the columns of the building. These models are: shear collapse, elastic and inelastic. The biaxial models for shear and inelastic behaviour are new developments and are useful for non-linear structural dynamic studies. In the present study, the shear collapse model is intended to represent the actual prototype behaviour. The inelastic model, which is based on a hardening rule of plasticity, is used to study the performance of a hypothetical structure with the same storey shear capacity as the prototype but which exhibits ductile behaviour. The prototype structure had a base storey shear capacity of 25 per cent, and actually failed by shearing of all of the first floor columns. In the present study, the shear collapse model predicted this behaviour even with the El Centro accelerogram as input. This result may have far-reaching significance because many low-rise reinforced concrete buildings which were designed according to recent codes have similar storey shear capacity coefficients and column properties. According to this study, such buildings may collapse even in a moderate earthquake. In the inelastic representation, the structure was found to have a base storey shear capacity of 80 per cent when moment hinging was assumed to occur at the top and bottom of the columns. Even with this high strength capacity, the permanent offset computed from the inelastic model corresponded to a ductility factor of 5 when the Pacoima Dam accelerogram was used as input. On the basis of damage to other structures observed on the site, it seems likely that ground motion of about the Pacoima Dam intensity occurred at Olive View. From this it is concluded that a low-rise ductile frame concrete building, even with this high shear force capacity, may not prove satisfactory for hospital use when subjected to strong ground motion. 相似文献
53.
Accurate forecasting of hydrological time‐series is a quite important issue for a wise and sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach is used to construct a time‐series forecasting system. In particular, the applicability of an ANFIS to the forecasting of the time‐series is investigated. To illustrate the applicability and capability of an ANFIS, the River Great Menderes, located in western Turkey, is chosen as a case study area. The advantage of this method is that it uses the input–output data sets. A total of 5844 daily data sets collected from 1985 to 2000 are used for the time‐series forecasting. Models having various input structures were constructed and the best structure was investigated. In addition, four various training/testing data sets were built by cross‐validation methods and the best data set was obtained. The performance of the ANFIS models in training and testing sets was compared with observations and also evaluated. In order to get an accurate and reliable comparison, the best‐fit model structure was also trained and tested by artificial neural networks and traditional time‐series analysis techniques and the results compared. The results indicate that the ANFIS can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for time‐series modelling. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
54.
S&#;bel Tatar Erkül Hasan Sözb&#;l&#;r Fuat Erkül Cah&#;t Helvaci Yalçin Ersoy Ökmen Sümer 《Island Arc》2008,17(3):394-418
Abstract Triassic granitoids related to Palaeo- and Neo-Tethyan events occur widely in the metamorphic terranes largely affected by the Alpine orogeny. A first recorded unmetamorphosed plutonic body intruded into the Palaeotethyan mélange in western Turkey, called the Karaburun granodiorite, is composed of two small intrusive stocks that were emplaced between 240 and 220 Ma. It is compositionally diverse, ranging from granodiorite and tonalite to diorite. These rocks show heterogeneous compositions with 54 to 65 wt % SiO2 and are calc-alkaline in character. They are also subalkaline with molar ratios of Al2O3/(Na2O + K2O) from 0.74 to 1.00 and are metaluminous. Most samples are diopside-normative (0.36–8.64), with Na2O > K2O. Chondrite normalized rare earth element (REE) patterns show various degrees of light REE (LREE) enrichment, with La N = 57.79 to 99.59 and (La/Yb) N = 5.98–7.85 and Eu negative anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.62–0.86). These rocks have coherent patterns in ocean ridge granite (ORG) normalized trace-element plots, marked by variable enrichment in K, Rb, Ba, Th, Ce and depletion in Ta and Nb, similar to I-type granites from subduction zones. In primitive mantle-normalized multi element variation diagrams, the granodiorites show pronounced depletions in the high-field-strength elements (HFSE; Nb, Ta, Zr), Sr, P, and Ti. Trace-element modeling of the Karaburun granodiorite suggests an origin through partial melting of the subduction-modified mantle wedge with minor contribution of crustal components through a process of strong fractional crystallization (FC) combined with slight assimilation-fractional crystallization (AFC). Exposures of typical continental-arc granodiorites in the Karaburun Mélange support the validity of the subduction-accretion model that implies the presence of an active continental margin following closure of the Palaeotethyan Ocean during the Triassic. 相似文献
55.
Cahit Helvacı E. Yalçın Ersoy Hasan Sözbilir Fuat Erkül Ökmen Sümer Bora Uzel 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009
New geochemical and 40Ar/39Ar age data are presented from the Neogene volcanic units of the Karaburun Peninsula, the westernmost part of Western Anatolia. The volcanic rocks in the region are associated with Neogene lacustrine deposition and are characterized by (1) olivine-bearing basaltic-andesites to shoshonites (Karaburun volcanics), high-K calc-alkaline andesites, dacites and latites (Yaylaköy, Arma?anda? and Kocada? volcanics) of ~ 16–18 Ma, and (2) mildly-alkaline basalts (Ovac?k basalt) and rhyolites (Urla volcanics) of ~ 11–12 Ma. The first group of rocks is enriched in LILE and LREE with respect to the HREE and HFSE on N-MORB-normalised REE and multi-element spider diagrams. They are comparable geochemically with volcanic rocks in the surrounding regions such as Chios Island and other localities in Western Anatolia. The Ovac?k basalt is geochemically similar to the first stage early–middle Miocene volcanic rocks but differs from NW Anatolian late Miocene alkali basalts. 相似文献
56.
For centuries, inhabitants of coastal areas have suffered from the effects of tsunamis. Turkey, with a coastline of 8333 km, has experienced many tsunamis.Historical records reveal that, during the observation period over 3000 years, the coastal and surrounding areas of Turkey have been affected by more than ninety tsunamis. These tended to cluster around the Marmara Sea, the city of Istanbul and the gulfs of Izmit, Izmir, Fethiye and Iskenderun. Each of the tsunami occurrences surveyed in this paper deserves further individual study. The most extensive available information concerns the tsunamis associated with the Istanbul Earthquakes of 1509 and 1894, the Eastern Marmara Earthquake in 1963 and that of Izmit in 1999,which disturbed the Marmara Sea; the Earthquake of 1939 in Erzincan ineastern Anatolia; and the 1968 Bartn Earthquake, which affected Fatsa and Amasra on the Black Sea. In addition to these, it is known that a tsunami occurred in 1598 on the shores of the Black Sea in connection with an earthquake at Amasya in northern Anatolia. 相似文献
57.
58.
İbrahim Uysal A. Dündar Şen E. Yalçın Ersoy Yildirim Dilek Samet Saka Federica Zaccarini Monica Escayola Orhan Karslı 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,108(1):49-69
We present the whole-rock and the mineral chemical data for upper mantle peridotites from the Harmanc?k region in NW Turkey and discuss their petrogenetic–tectonic origin. These peridotites are part of a Tethyan ophiolite belt occurring along the ?zmir-Ankara-Ercincan suture zone in northern Turkey, and include depleted lherzolites and refractory harzburgites. The Al2O3 contents in orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene from the depleted lherzolite are high, and the Cr-number in the coexisting spinel is low falling within the abyssal field. However, the orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene in the harzburgites have lower Al2O3 contents for a given Cr-number of spinel, and plot within the lower end of the abyssal field. The whole-rock geochemical and the mineral chemistry data imply that the Harmanc?k peridotites formed by different degrees of partial melting (~%10–27) of the mantle. The depleted lherzolite samples have higher MREE and HREE abundances than the harzburgitic peridotites, showing convex-downward patterns. These peridotites represent up to ~16 % melting residue that formed during the initial seafloor spreading stage of the Northern Neotethys. On the other hand, the more refractory harzburgites represent residues after ~4–11 % hydrous partial melting of the previously depleted MOR mantle, which was metasomatized by slab-derived fluids during the early stages of subduction. The Harmanc?k peridotites, hence, represent the fragments of upper mantle rocks that formed during different stages of the tectonic evolution of the Tethyan oceanic lithosphere in Northern Neotethys. We infer that the multi-stage melting history of the Harmanc?k peridotites reflect the geochemically heterogeneous character of the Tethyan oceanic lithosphere currently exposed along the ?zmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture zone. 相似文献