云南干旱“常态化”的分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

付奔  胡关东  杨帆  王龙 《水文》2014,34(4):82-85

近年来云南持续发生严重干旱,云南干旱是否日趋"常态化"成为社会各界关心的一个热点问题,相关报道不断见诸媒体。本文从水文的角度对云南省的历史干旱、水文要素以及趋势预测等方面进行了深入的分析。在历史依据和现代气象水文观测数据的支撑下,考察近100年来全球增暖可能导致部分地区干旱化的可能,从而认为近年来提出的云南干旱"常态化"存在科学依据;但干旱"常态化"仅能局限于近现代时期这一时间范畴,对于今后更长时期云南省干旱发展趋势,依据现有技术手段及研究成果尚难以判断把握。  相似文献   

Using a H∞ filter assimilation procedure to estimate root zone soil water content     

Haishen Lü  Xiaoli Li  Zhongbo Yu  Robert Horton  Yonghua Zhu  Zhenchun Hao  Long Xiang 《水文研究》2010,24(25):3648-3660

Root zone soil water content impacts plant water availability, land energy and water balances. Because of unknown hydrological model error, observation errors and the statistical characteristics of the errors, the widely used Kalman filter (KF) and its extensions are challenged to retrieve the root zone soil water content using the surface soil water content. If the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, the KF and its extensions fail to accurately estimate the root zone soil water. The H‐infinity filter (HF) represents a robust version of the KF. The HF is widely used in data assimilation and is superior to the KF, especially when the performance of the model is not well understood. The objective of this study is to study the impact of uncertain soil hydraulic parameters, initial soil moisture content and observation period on the ability of HF assimilation to predict in situ soil water content. In this article, we study seven cases. The results show that the soil hydraulic parameters hold a critical role in the course of assimilation. When the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, an accurate estimation of root soil water content cannot be retrieved by the HF assimilation approach. When the estimated soil hydraulic parameters are similar to actual values, the soil water content at various depths can be accurately retrieved by the HF assimilation. The HF assimilation is not very sensitive to the initial soil water content, and the impact of the initial soil water content on the assimilation scheme can be eliminated after about 5–7 days. The observation interval is important for soil water profile distribution retrieval with the HF, and the shorter the observation interval, the shorter the time required to achieve actual soil water content. However, the retrieval results are not very accurate at a depth of 100 cm. Also it is complex to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter in the HF assimilation. In this article, the trial‐and‐error method was used to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter. After the first establishment of limited range of the parameters, ‘the best parameter set’ was selected from the range of values. For the soil conditions investigated, the HF assimilation results are better than the open‐loop results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Cohesive‐frictional model for bond and splitting action of prestressing wire     

J. C. Gálvez  J. M. Benítez  M. J. Casati  B. S. Tork  D. A. Cendón 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(11):1257-1277

This paper presents a numerical procedure for bond between indented wires and concrete, and the coupled splitting process of the surrounding concrete. The bond model is an interface, non‐associative, plasticity model. It is coupled with a cohesive fracture model for concrete to take into account the splitting of such concrete. Bond between steel and concrete is fundamental for the transmission of stresses between both materials in precast prestressed concrete. Indented wires are used to improve the bond in these structural elements. The radial component of the prestressing force, increased by Poisson's effect, may split the surrounding concrete, decreasing the wire confinement and diminishing the bonding. The combined action of the bond and the splitting is studied with the proposed model. The results of the numerical model are compared with the results of a series of tests, such as those which showed splitting induced by the bond between wire and concrete. Tests with different steel indentation depths were performed. The numerical procedure accurately reproduces the experimental records and improves knowledge of this complex process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Holocene sea-level changes along the North Carolina Coastline and their implications for glacial isostatic adjustment models     

B.P. Horton  W.R. Peltier  S.J. Culver  R. Drummond  S.E. Engelhart  A.C. Kemp  D. Mallinson  E.R. Thieler  S.R. Riggs  D.V. Ames  K.H. Thomson 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(17-18):1725-1736

We have synthesized new and existing relative sea-level (RSL) data to produce a quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive database from the North Carolina coastline. The RSL database consists of 54 sea-level index points that are quantitatively related to an appropriate tide level and assigned an error estimate, and a further 33 limiting dates that confine the maximum and minimum elevations of RSL. The temporal distribution of the index points is very uneven with only five index points older than 4000 cal a BP, but the form of the Holocene sea-level trend is constrained by both terrestrial and marine limiting dates. The data illustrate RSL rapidly rising during the early and mid Holocene from an observed elevation of ?35.7 ± 1.1 m MSL at 11062–10576 cal a BP to ?4.2 m ± 0.4 m MSL at 4240–3592 cal a BP.We restricted comparisons between observations and predictions from the ICE-5G(VM2) with rotational feedback Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model to the Late Holocene RSL (last 4000 cal a BP) because of the wealth of sea-level data during this time interval. The ICE-5G(VM2) model predicts significant spatial variations in RSL across North Carolina, thus we subdivided the observations into two regions. The model forecasts an increase in the rate of sea-level rise in Region 1 (Albemarle, Currituck, Roanoke, Croatan, and northern Pamlico sounds) compared to Region 2 (southern Pamlico, Core and Bogue sounds, and farther south to Wilmington). The observations show Late Holocene sea-level rising at 1.14 ± 0.03 mm year^?1 and 0.82 ± 0.02 mm year^?1 in Regions 1 and 2, respectively. The ICE-5G(VM2) predictions capture the general temporal trend of the observations, although there is an apparent misfit for index points older than 2000 cal a BP. It is presently unknown whether these misfits are caused by possible tectonic uplift associated with the mid-Carolina Platform High or a flaw in the GIA model. A comparison of local tide gauge data with the Late Holocene RSL trends from Regions 1 and 2 support the spatial variation in RSL across North Carolina, and imply an additional increase of mean sea level of greater than 2 mm year^?1 during the latter half of the 20th century; this is in general agreement with historical tide gauge and satellite altimetry data.  相似文献   

Putative Meteoritic Craters in Río Cuarto (Central Argentina) Interpreted as Eolian Structures     

Cione  Alberto L.  Tonni  Eduardo P.  San Cristóbal  Jorge  Hernández  Pedro J.  Benítez  Adrián  Bordignon  Fernando  Perí  Jorge A. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2002,91(1):9-24

Ten oblong aligned depressions in the Río Cuarto area (provincia de Córdoba, Argentina) were supposed to be the result of very-low-angle Holocene meteoroid impacts. However, we consider that authors that studied the structures did not demonstrated their extraterrestrial origin. We suggest that an eolian origin for the structures of Río Cuarto is more likely. Actually, these landforms integrate large systems of similar deflation/accumulation geoforms aligned according to predominant winds during different periods.  相似文献   

Do accretion discs regulate the rotation of young stars?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. P. Littlefair  Tim Naylor  Ben Burningham  R. D. Jeffries 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,358(2):341-352

We present a photometric study of I -band variability in the young cluster IC 348. The main purpose of the study was to identify periodic stars. In all, we find 50 periodic stars, of which 32 were previously unknown. For the first time in IC 348, we discover periods in significant numbers of lower-mass stars  ( M < 0.25 M_⊙)  and classical T Tauri stars. This increased sensitivity to periodicities is a result of the enhanced depth and temporal density of our observations, compared with previous studies. The period distribution is at first glance similar to that seen in the Orion nebula cluster (ONC), with the higher-mass stars  ( M > 0.25 M_⊙)  showing a bi-modal period distribution concentrated around periods of 2 and 8 d, and the lower-mass stars showing a uni-modal distribution, heavily biased towards fast rotators. Closer inspection of the period distribution shows that the higher-mass stars show a significant dearth of fast rotators, compared to the ONC, whilst the low-mass stars are rotating significantly faster than those in Orion. We find no correlation between rotation period and K – L colour or Hα equivalent width.
We also present a discussion of our own IC 348 data in the context of previously published period distributions for the ONC, the Orion flanking fields and NGC 2264. We find that the previously claimed correlation between infrared excess and rotation period in the ONC might, in fact, result from a correlation between infrared excess and mass. We also find a marked difference in period distributions between NGC 2264 and IC 348, which presents a serious challenge to the disc-locking paradigm, given the similarity in ages and disc fractions between the two clusters.  相似文献   

Zircon U-Pb Geochronology and Geochemical Characteristics of the Volcanic Host Rocks from the Tongyu VHMS Copper Deposit in the Western North Qinling Orogen and Their Geological Significance     

XIONG Xiao  ZHU Laimin  LI Ben  ZHANG Guowei  GONG Hujun  ZHENG Jun  JIANG Hang 《《地质学报》英文版》2015,89(6):1926-1946

Precise in situ zircon U-Pb dating and Lu–Hf isotopic measurement using an LA-ICP-MS system, whole-rock major and trace element geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotope geochemistry were conducted on the volcanic host rocks of the Tongyu copper deposit on the basis of further understanding of its geological characteristics. Three zircon samples from the volcanic host rocks yielded 206Pb/238 U weighted average ages ranging from 436±4 Ma to 440±5 Ma, which are statistically indistinguishable and coeval with the ca. 440 Ma northward subduction event of the Paleo-Qinling oceanic slab. The volcanic host rocks were products of magmatic differentiation that evolved from basalt to andesite to dacite to rhyolite, forming an integrated tholeiitic island arc volcanic rock suite. The primitive mantle-normalized trace element patterns for most samples show characteristics of island arc volcanic rocks, such as relative enrichment of LILE(e.g. Th, U, Pb and La) and depletion of HFSE(e.g. Nb, Ta, Ti, Zr and Hf). Discrimination diagrams of Ta/Yb vs Th/Yb, Ta vs Th, Yb vs Th/Ta, Ta/Hf vs Th/Hf, Hf/3 vs Th vs Nb/16, La vs La/Nb and Nb vs Nb/Th all suggest that both the volcanic host rocks from the Tongyu copper deposit and the volcanic rocks from the regional Xieyuguan Group were formed in an island arc environment related to subduction of an oceanic slab. Values of ISr(0.703457 to 0.708218) and εNd(t)(-2 to 5.8) indicate that the source materials of volcanic rocks from the Tongyu copper deposit and the Xieyuguan Group originated from the metasomatised mantle wedge with possible crustal material assimilation. Most of the volcanic rock samples show good agreement with the values of typical island arc volcanic rocks in the ISr-εNd(t) diagram. The involvement of crustal-derived material in the magma of the volcanic rocks from the Tongyu copper deposit was also reflected in the zircon εHf(t) values, which range from-3.08 to 10.7, and the existence of inherited ancient xenocrystic zircon cores(2616±39 Ma and 1297±22 Ma). The mineralization of the Tongyu copper deposit shows syn-volcanic characteristics such as layered orebodies interbedded with the volcanic rock strata, thus, the zircon U-Pb age of the volcanic host rocks can approximately represent the mineralization age of the Tongyu copper deposit. Both the Meigou pluton and the volcanic host rocks were formed during the ca. 440 Ma northward subduction of the Paleo-Qinling Ocean when high oxygen fugacity aqueous hydrothermal fluid released by dehydration of the slab and the overlying sediments fluxed into the mantle wedge, triggered partial melting of the mantle wedge, and activated and extracted Cu and other ore-forming elements. The magma and ore-bearing fluid upwelled and erupted, and consequently formed the island arc volcanic rock suite and the Tongyu VHMS-type copper deposit.  相似文献   

The geochemical effects of olivine slurry replenishment and dolostone assimilation in the plumbing system of the Franklin Large Igneous Province,Victoria Island,Arctic Canada     

Ben Hayes  C. Johan Lissenberg  Jean H. Bédard  Charlie Beard 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2015,169(2):1-18

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近30a台湾非台风暴雨研究回顾     

周仲岛 《湖北气象》2020,39(2):109-116

从1987年开始,台湾暴雨研究进入一个新纪元,由早期定性描述分析进入定量计算与模拟,其中包括新观测设施的建设与数值天气预报系统的建立。近年来,随着全球气候变暖,台湾极端降雨事件有所增加,其中不少极端降雨事件是由非台风暴雨所致,往往给当地社会经济和人民生命财产造成严重影响,这就迫切需要不断提高强降雨定量预报业务水平。本文通过对近30 a台湾在非台风暴雨研究发展方面取得的主要进展的回顾,重点介绍了台湾气象部门为了提高强降雨定量预报业务水平所做出的努力,同时对未来台湾非台风暴雨研究规划与方向作了简要介绍。  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献