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41.
In this paper, we investigate a linear regression time series model of possibly outlier-afflicted observations and autocorrelated random deviations. This colored noise is represented by a covariance-stationary autoregressive (AR) process, in which the independent error components follow a scaled (Student’s) t-distribution. This error model allows for the stochastic modeling of multiple outliers and for an adaptive robust maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the unknown regression and AR coefficients, the scale parameter, and the degree of freedom of the t-distribution. This approach is meant to be an extension of known estimators, which tend to focus only on the regression model, or on the AR error model, or on normally distributed errors. For the purpose of ML estimation, we derive an expectation conditional maximization either algorithm, which leads to an easy-to-implement version of iteratively reweighted least squares. The estimation performance of the algorithm is evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations for a Fourier as well as a spline model in connection with AR colored noise models of different orders and with three different sampling distributions generating the white noise components. We apply the algorithm to a vibration dataset recorded by a high-accuracy, single-axis accelerometer, focusing on the evaluation of the estimated AR colored noise model.  相似文献   
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Vertical stratification changes at low frequency over the last decades are the largest in the western-central Pacific and have the potential to modify the balance between ENSO feedback processes. Here we show evidence of an increase in thermocline feedback in the western-central equatorial Pacific over the last 50 years, and in particular after the climate shift of 1976. It is demonstrated that the thermocline feedback becomes more effective due to the increased stratification in the vicinity of the mean thermocline. This leads to an increase in vertical advection variability twice as large as the increase resulting from the stronger ENSO amplitude (positive asymmetry) in the eastern Pacific that connects to the thermocline in the western-central Pacific through the basin-scale ‘tilt’ mode. Although the zonal advective feedback is dominant over the western-central equatorial Pacific, the more effective thermocline feedback allows for counteracting its warming (cooling) effect during warm (cold) events, leading to the reduced covariability between SST and thermocline depth anomalies in the NINO4 (160°E–150°W; 5°S–5°N) region after the 1976 climate shift. This counter-intuitive relationship between thermocline feedback strength as derived from the linear relationship between SST and thermocline fluctuations and stratification changes is also investigated in a long-term general circulation coupled model simulation. It is suggested that an increase in ENSO amplitude may lead to the decoupling between eastern and central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies through its effect on stratification and thermocline feedback in the central-western Pacific.  相似文献   
45.
We deal with the planar restricted circular problem of three bodies. We study trajectories in a small neighborhood of the Lagrange equilibrium point L 4 when mass ratio is close to Routh's value. In particular, we show that the case of proper degeneracy takes place and for most initial conditions trajectories are conditionally-periodic. We obtain an approximate representation of families of periodic solution emanating from the equilibrium point L 4. We also show that in the case of instability of L 4 the trajectories starting in a vicinity of L 4 remain in a finite domain forever. We give an upper bound of this domain. To carry out our investigation, we analyze the dynamics of a general Hamiltonian system with two degrees of freedom in the case of 1 : 1 resonance in detail.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
46.
The mathematical structure and numerical analysis of classical small deformation elasto–plasticity is generally well established. However, development of large deformation elastic–plastic numerical formulation for dilatant, pressure sensitive material models is still a research area. In this paper we present development of the finite element formulation and implementation for large deformation, elastic–plastic analysis of geomaterials. Our developments are based on the multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient into elastic and plastic parts. A consistent linearization of the right deformation tensor together with the Newton method at the constitutive and global levels leads toward an efficient and robust numerical algorithm. The presented numerical formulation is capable of accurately modelling dilatant, pressure sensitive isotropic and anisotropic geomaterials subjected to large deformations. In particular, the formulation is capable of simulating the behaviour of geomaterials in which eigentriads of stress and strain do not coincide during the loading process. The algorithm is tested in conjunction with the novel hyperelasto–plastic model termed the B material model, which is a single surface (single yield surface, affine single ultimate surface and affine single potential surface) model for dilatant, pressure sensitive, hardening and softening geomaterials. It is specifically developed to model large deformation hyperelasto–plastic problems in geomechanics. We present an application of this formulation to numerical analysis of low confinement tests on cohesionless granular soil specimens recently performed in a SPACEHAB module aboard the Space Shuttle during the STS‐89 mission. We compare numerical modelling with test results and show the significance of added confinement by the thin hyperelastic latex membrane undergoing large stretching. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
47.
The solubility of gold was measured in KCl solutions (0.001-0.1 m) at near-neutral to weakly acidic pH in the presence of the K-feldspar-muscovite-quartz, andalusite-muscovite-quartz, and pyrite-pyrrhotite-magnetite buffers at temperatures 350 to 500°C and pressures 0.5 and 1 kbar. These mineral buffers were used to simultaneously constrain pH, f(S2), and f(H2). The experiments were performed using a CORETEST flexible Ti-cell rocking hydrothermal reactor enabling solution sampling at experimental conditions. Measured log m(Au) (mol/kg H2O) ranges from −7.5 at weakly acid pH to −5.9 in near-neutral solutions, and increases slightly with temperature. Gold solubility in weakly basic and near-neutral solutions decreases with decreasing pH at all temperatures, which implies that Au(HS)2 is the dominant Au species in solution. In more acidic solutions, solubility is independent of pH. Comparison of the experimentally measured solubilities with literature values for Au hydrolysis constants demonstrates that at 350°C dominates Au aqueous speciation at the weakly acidic pH and f(S2)/f(H2) conditions imposed by the pyrite-pyrrhotite-magnetite buffer. In contrast, at temperatures >400°C becomes less important and predominates in weakly acid solutions. Solubility data collected in this study were used to calculate the following equilibrium reaction constants:
  相似文献   
48.
The Ayopaya province in the eastern Andes of Bolivia, 100 km NW of Cochabamba, hosts a Cretaceous alkaline rock series within a Palaeozoic sedimentary sequence. The alkaline rock association comprises nepheline-syenitic/foyaitic to ijolitic intrusions, carbonatite, kimberlite, melilititic, nephelinitic to basanitic dykes and diatremes, and a variety of alkaline dykes. The carbonatites display a wide petrographic and geochemical spectrum. The Cerro Sapo area hosts a small calciocarbonatite intrusion and a multitude of ferrocarbonatitic dykes and lenses in association with a nepheline-syenitic stock. The stock is crosscut by a spectacular REE-Sr-Th-rich sodalite-ankerite-baryte dyke system. The nearby Chiaracke complex represents a magnesiocarbonatite intrusion with no evidence for a relationship to igneous silicate rocks. The magnesiocarbonatite ( REE up to 1.3 wt%) shows strong HREE depletion, i.e. unusually high La/Yb ratios (520–1,500). Calciocarbonatites ( REE up to 0.5 wt%) have a flatter REE distribution pattern (La/Yb 95–160) and higher Nb and Zr contents. The sodalite-ankerite-baryte dyke system shows geochemical enrichment features, particularly in Na, Ba, Cl, Sr, REE, which are similar to the unusual natrocarbonatitic lavas of the recent volcano of Oldoinyo Lengai, Tanzania. The Cerro Sapo complex may be regarded as an intrusive equivalent of natrocarbonatitic volcanism, and provides an example for carbonatite genesis by late-stage crystal fractionation and liquid immiscibility. The magnesiocarbonatite intrusion of Chiaracke, on the other hand, appears to result from a primary carbonatitic mantle melt. Deep seated mantle magmatism/metasomatism is also expressed by the occurrence of a kimberlite dyke. Neodymium and strontium isotope data (Nd 1.4–5.4, 87Sr/86 Sr<Bulk Earth) indicate a depleted mantle source for the alkaline magmatism. The magmatism of the Ayopaya region is attributed to failed rifting of western South America during the Mesozoic and represents the only occurrence of carbonatite and kimberlite rocks in the Andes.  相似文献   
49.
In order to understand the change in oceanic variability associated with the climate shift of the mid-1970s, we analyze the contribution of momentum forcing to the leading baroclinic modes over the tropical Pacific using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA, version 2.0.2) for the period of 1958–1997. Specifically, we look at the statistical relationship between the wind projection coefficients and climate indices and attempt to provide a physical explanation for the observed changes. It is found that the wind stress projection coefficients according to the oceanic baroclinic modes are different in terms of their magnitude and phase in the tropical Pacific, reflecting a specific forcing associated with each mode before and after the 1976 climate shift. Compared to that before the 1970s, the first baroclinic mode is had a greater effect on the interannual sea surface temperature due to equatorial wave dynamics, and there was an increased delayed response of the second baroclinic mode variability to the interannual atmospheric forcing after the late 1970s. This reflects changes in ENSO feedback processes associated with the climate shift. Our analysis further indicates that, after the late 1970s, there was a decrease in the wind stress forcing projecting onto the Ekman layer, which is associated with increased mixed-layer depth. This result suggests that the changes in the ENSO properties before and after the late 1970s are largely associated with the changes in the way in which the wind stress forcing is dynamically projected onto the surface layer of the tropical Pacific Ocean over interannual timescales.  相似文献   
50.
Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
This study systematically analyzes the complete IPCC AR4 (CMIP3) ensemble of GCM simulations with respect to changes in extreme event characteristics at the end of the 21st century compared to present-day conditions. It complements previous studies by investigating a more comprehensive database and considering seasonal changes beside the annual time scale. Confirming previous studies, the agreement between the GCMs is generally high for temperature-related extremes, indicating increases of warm day occurrences and heatwave lengths, and decreases of cold extremes. However, we identify issues with the choice of indices used to quantify heatwave lengths, which do overall not affect the sign of the changes, but strongly impact the magnitude and patterns of projected changes in heatwave characteristics. Projected changes in precipitation and dryness extremes are more ambiguous than those in temperature extremes, despite some robust features, such as increasing dryness over the Mediterranean and increasing heavy precipitation over the Northern high latitudes. We also find that the assessment of projected changes in dryness depends on the index choice, and that models show less agreement regarding changes in soil moisture than in the commonly used ‘consecutive dry days’ index, which is based on precipitation data only. Finally an analysis of the scaling of changes of extreme temperature quantiles with global, regional and seasonal warming shows that much of the extreme quantile changes are due to a seasonal scaling of the regional annual-mean warming. This emphasizes the importance of the seasonal time scale also for extremes. Changes in extreme quantiles of temperature on land scale with changes in global annual mean temperature by a factor of more than 2 in some regions and seasons, implying large changes in extremes in several countries, even for the commonly discussed global 2°C-warming target.  相似文献   
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