Impacts of variations in the strength and structure of El Niño events on Pacific rainfall in CMIP5 models     

Bradley F. Murphy  Hua Ye  François Delage 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(11-12):3171-3186

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Morphologic Interpretation of Rock Failure Mechanisms Under Uniaxial Compression Based on 3D Multiscale High-resolution Numerical Modeling     

Gen Li  Zheng-Zhao Liang  Chun-An Tang 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(6):2235-2262

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Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities          下载免费PDF全文

Herbert Ssegane  Devendra M. Amatya  Augustine Muwamba  George M. Chescheir  Tim Appelboom  E.W. Tollner  Jami E. Nettles  Mohamed A. Youssef  François Birgand  R.W. Skaggs 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3458-3471

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.  相似文献   

Impact of Overcut on Interaction Between Shield and Ground in the Tunneling with a Double-shield TBM     

Rohola Hasanpour  Jamal Rostami  Yılmaz Özçelik 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(5):2015-2022

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同化FY3B/IRAS资料对GRAPES分析场影响诊断     

王根  刘文静  唐怀瓯 《气象与环境科学》2016,39(3):15-21

GRAPES(Globe and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)变分系统能够同化常规资料和非常规卫星资料,这些被同化的资料究竟对同化系统得到的分析场有何影响,目前国内外尚未见相关的研究文献。为此,首次采用基于信息熵信号自由度思想,诊断风云三号B星(FY3B)红外分光计(Infrared Atmospheric Sounder,IRAS)资料对GRAPES分析场的影响。诊断过程中,采用数值逼近方法,统计2012年12月24日18时到2013年1月22日00时共114个时次IRAS资料对GRAPES分析场影响,结果表明,IRAS中高层通道亮温资料对GRAPES分析场影响比地表通道20观测亮温的影响大,地表通道8和9观测亮温对分析场影响较大。前24个GRAPES变分同化时次每个时次IRAS通道亮温对分析场影响的贡献率分析结果显示,高层通道和H_2O通道贡献率较大。个例分析结果表明,在同化探空资料基础上加入IRAS资料后,温度和湿度增量场变化幅度较大,表明IRAS资料对分析场有降温和增湿作用。  相似文献   

湖北南漳-远安动物群及其生物复苏意义     

陈粲  陈孝红  程龙  阎春波 《地质学报》2016,90(3):409-420

湖北西部远安县鹰子山、洋坪至南漳县巡检、古井一带下三叠统嘉陵江组第三段上部厚约30 m的纹层状灰岩中产有湖北鳄类、鳍龙类、鱼龙类等多门类海生爬行动物化石,形成了一个以富产湖北鳄类化石为特点,湖北鳄类、鳍龙类、鱼龙类等多门类海生爬行动物共同繁盛的南漳-远安动物群。由于该动物群中海生爬行动物的生物类型和化石属、种的分异度已近接近中三叠世生物复苏之后所形成的以海生爬行动物繁盛为特征的罗平-盘县生物群,指示海生爬行动物的首次辐射发生在早三叠世晚期,并由此形成了以食物链顶端的海生爬行动物为主而重建的中生代全新的海洋生态系统。  相似文献   

Validation of MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields for monitoring deforestation and forest degradation: two cases in Mexico     

Yan Gao  Adrian Ghilardi  Jaime Paneque-Galvez  Margaret Skutsch  Jean François Mas 《国际地球制图》2016,31(9):1019-1031

This study assesses whether MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields percent tree cover (PTC) data can detect deforestation and forest degradation. To assess the usefulness of PTC for detecting deforestation, we used a data set consisting of eight forest and seven non-forest categories. To evaluate forest degradation, we used data from two temperate forest types in three conservation states: primary (dense), secondary (moderately degraded) and open (heavily degraded) forest. Our results show that PTC can differentiate temperate forest from non-forest categories (p = 0.05) and thus suggests PTC can adequately detect deforestation in temperate forests. In contrast, single-date PTC data does not appear to be adequate to detect forest degradation in temperate forests. As for tropical forest, PTC can partially discriminate between forest and non-forest categories.  相似文献   

A database for fatalities and damages due to the earthquakes in Turkey (1900–2014)     

Murat Bikçe 《Natural Hazards》2016,83(3):1359-1418

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加权Logistic回归模型在火山岩型铜矿预测中的应用:以宁芜盆地中段为例          下载免费PDF全文

赵增玉  陈火根  潘懋  贾根  李向前  徐士银  郭刚  张祥云 《高校地质学报》2016,22(1):105

文中探讨了加权Logistic回归模型在宁芜盆地中段火山岩型铜矿预测中的应用。首先,结合研究区的成矿地质背景,提取地质体、构造、围岩蚀变三大类证据因子;其次,分析各证据因子与铜矿点之间的空间关系,认为姑山旋回、娘娘山旋回火山机构控制了本区火山岩型铜矿的空间分布,根据计算结果,选取与火山岩型铜矿密切相关的龙王山组、姑山组地层,姑山旋回粗面斑岩、娘娘山旋回二长斑岩、NW向构造1.5 km缓冲区、NE向构造1.3 km缓冲区、EW向构造4.5 km缓冲区、硅化、褐铁矿化、黄铜矿化等作为模型自变量;最后采用加权Logistic回归模型进行成矿概率计算,并结合成矿地质背景,圈定四个成矿远景区,分别为P1、P2、P3、P4,其中P1、P2、P3呈北东向展布,主要受娘娘山和姑山火山机构控制,P4为东西向分布,主要受龙王山火山机构控制,在这些预测区中,均存在已发现的铜矿体,说明预测可信度较高。  相似文献   

黑龙江省嫩江县三矿沟Cu-Fe-Mo矿床岩浆岩成因研究          下载免费PDF全文

李德荣  牛延宏  崔根  王秋阳 《中国地质》2016,(6):2104-2117

三矿沟Cu-Fe-Mo矿床是大兴安岭地区三矿沟—多宝山构造-成矿带中一个比较典型的矽卡岩型矿床。在大量野外地质调查、室内岩矿鉴定的基础上,对与成矿有关的三矿沟复式英云(花岗)闪长岩体的岩石地球化学特征进行了分析,探讨了该岩体的成因类型和构造环境。研究表明,该矿床岩浆岩体属于钙碱性I型花岗岩,具有大陆地壳的特征,形成于与造山花岗岩有关的火山弧环境或相似的构造环境中,主要与造山阶段的火山弧花岗岩关系密切。稀土元素配分图显示向右缓倾斜的轻稀土元素富集型特点,轻、重稀土分馏较为明显,无明显的负铕异常,暗示其具有相同或相近的成因,也反映了同源岩浆的特点。δEu值介于0.81~1.24,δCe值为1.00~1.13,表明岩浆演化过程中发生了微弱的分离结晶作用,同时又受到同化混染作用的一定影响,其成岩环境氧逸度较低,指示了缺氧环境,有利于金属元素的积聚而形成矿床。  相似文献