5—6月东北冷涡持续活动及强度特征          下载免费PDF全文

刘刚  王宁  秦玉琳  曹玲  褚曲成  姚瑶 《应用气象学报》2016,27(1):47-55

利用1960—2012年5—6月NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,基于冷涡经典定义,采取客观识别方法检索东北冷涡活动过程,根据东北冷涡活动时空变化特征给出东北冷涡持续活动过程标准, 通过冷涡强度指数进行定量化分析,该指数对冷涡持续活动过程具有较好表征意义。冷涡活动强对应5月乌拉尔山阻塞高压、贝加尔湖阻塞高压和6月鄂霍次克海阻塞高压活动频繁。通过强弱指数年合成,得到6月强指数年冷涡系统较深厚,集中于对流层中高层,冷心结构明显,具有一定大气斜压特征; 高层存在冷中心,低层有冷空气活动,中高层西风带呈明显的上游分流和下游汇合特征,分汇流之间呈东北高、西南低的偶极子阻塞形势;弱指数年冷涡系统较浅薄,主要集中在对流层中低层,冷心结构不明显,不存在阻塞形势。  相似文献   

定量降水预报技术进展   总被引：13，自引：7，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

毕宝贵  代刊  王毅  符娇兰  曹勇  刘凑华 《应用气象学报》2016,27(5):534-549

对21世纪以来定量降水预报技术流程中的数值模式预报、统计后处理、检验评估和预报员作用4个方面的研究工作进行了归纳,主要进展包括:业务全球模式对于降水的预报能力持续提升,而发展高分辨率模式 (尤其是对流尺度模式) 和集合预报是提高定量降水预报精准化水平的主要途径,且将两者相结合以促进短期降水预报是发展趋势;统计后处理技术已发展到应用数据挖掘方法对海量预报数据中有效信息进行提取和集成,而再预报资料的出现将进一步促进统计后处理技术的发展;为解决评估精细化定量降水预报面临的新问题,多种新的检验技术得到发展和应用,如极端降水检验评分、空间检验技术及概率检验方法等;预报员在模式和后处理方法上能够提供的附加值越来越有限,但在预报流程中仍将处于核心地位,其角色将逐渐向帮助用户进行决策方向转变。文章指出,定量降水预报技术的发展所面临的挑战包括大气水汽观测及同化技术改进、暖区和复杂地形下暴雨预报等科学问题的解决。  相似文献   

FDR土壤水分传感器原状土壤标定方法研究     

王黎明  张雪芬  周旭辉  王建波  陈晨  王爱珍 《气象科技》2016,44(3):347-353

为获得测站准确的土壤水分传感器标定参数,利用自动土壤水分站点的大型原状土壤为样本,在实验室同时进行人工称重观测和仪器自动对比观测,得到一系列的人工自动测量数据,以人工称重数据为准对自动土壤水分传感器进行订正。由于采用原状土壤,样本土壤的质地、密度、土壤颗粒和结合紧密度基本没有受到破坏,订正后的自动土壤体积含水量值能更加真实反映台站实际土壤墒情,能够修订人工对比观测期间由于样本空间不足导致的不合理的田间标定方程。  相似文献   

FDR自动土壤水分数据标定问题及解决方法   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

周旭辉  王黎明  王建波  陈晨  王爱珍  刘焕乾  廖华 《气象科技》2016,44(4):535-541

针对目前FDR自动土壤水分数据可用性低的实际情况,本文从FDR自动土壤水分站传感器原理出发,结合数据处理流程与方法对湖南60个站点不同层次的标定参数及部分站点的相关观测数据进行了分析,指出目前田间标定法在自然条件下几乎无法得到覆盖土壤各个湿度区间的均匀样本数据,导致二次标定参数不合理是造成FDR自动土壤水分站数据可用性差的根本原因。二次标定方程参数不合理主要表现为方程斜率过大、过小、负值3种情况,导致观测数据增幅过大、常年不变、与实际土壤湿度变化趋势完全相反等问题。最后针对该问题提出了大样本原状取土,实验室标定的解决方法,并对方法进行了初步验证,结果表明该方法能从源头上有效改善土壤水分站观测数据质量。  相似文献   

鲁中南一次暴雨过程的特征和成因分析     

朱义青  王庆华  曹张驰  张品竹 《气象科技》2016,44(4):659-668

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6h的再分析资料、GPS可降雨资料和地闪定位资料,对2013年7月4—5日山东中南部出现的暴雨到大暴雨天气过程的不同阶段特征和成因进行了分析,结果表明:本次暴雨过程是冷暖切变线所引发,暴雨的水汽源于南海;低空急流的强弱和水汽通量的大小呈正相关;暖切变线暴雨的雨强、影响范围和持续时间明显大于冷切变线暴雨;冷、暖切变线GPS可降雨量表现不同,前者短时间内增幅大,地面强降雨在峰值出现1h后发生,对地面降雨变化反映较敏感,后者强降雨出现前8h可降雨量快速上升,可降雨量峰值对应地面降雨大值,对地面降雨变化反映不敏感;冷切变线对流性更强,地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍,正地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的1/2,负地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍;降雨云团正、负地闪活跃程度呈反相位关系,正、负地闪的变化能很好地反映强降雨的变化;冷、暖切变线动力结构不同,前者物理量场从低层到高层向北倾斜,后者则为垂直分布;冷切变线上升运动区较暖切变线深厚。  相似文献   

地表形变监测的改进相干目标法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王明洲  李陶  江利明  徐侃  吴文豪 《测绘学报》2016,45(1):36-43

如何从雷达干涉时间序列影像中获取更全面的相干目标集合,进行变形时间序列分析是当前研究的难点和热点。本文提出了改进的相干目标法,可获取更为全面且可信度高的相干目标集合,进而提高地表形变监测的时空分辨率和精度。根据雷达影像中同类型地物散射分布相近的特点,采用非参数同分布检验算法提取后向散射特性相近的同质点开展空间非局部滤波,提高干涉图的质量。与此同时,利用多尺度的极大似然条纹频率估计算法分离差分干涉图中的系统性相位,并基于同质点进行自适应相干性估计,获取相干性的平稳估计量,从而获取更多的相干点目标。利用20景TerraSAR-X条带模式时间序列影像,分别利用传统的及改进后的相干目标法对香港填海区域地表形变信息进行时序分析。对试验数据的分析结果表明,本文提出的改进方法在具有稀疏植被的填海区可有效增加相干目标点的提取,得到更为可信的沉降结果。  相似文献   

Monitoring reclaimed lands subsidence in Hong Kong with InSAR technique by persistent and distributed scatterers     

Mingzhou Wang  Tao Li  Liming Jiang 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(1):531-543

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Fifteen Years of Ocean Observations with China Argo     

Liu Zenghong  Wu Xiaofen  Xu Jianping  Li Hong  Lu Shaolei  Sun Chaohui  Cao Minjie 《地球科学进展》2016,31(5):445-460

For 15 years since the beginning of China Argo project, China has deployed over 350 profiling floats in Pacific and Indian ocean, and constructed China Argo ocean observing network. Moreover, we have setup the Argo data receiving, processing and distributing system, and developed various Argo data products using Argo observations, which has promoted the progress of ocean data sharing in China. The abundant Argo data have become a main data source in oceanic and atmospheric basic researches and operational applications. A batch of important achievements in basic research and operational application have been brought, e.g. in aspects of tropical cyclone (typhoon), ocean circulation, meso-scale eddy, turbulence, heat/salt storage and transport and water mass, as well as in ocean, atmosphere/climate operational forecasting and predicting. With the extension of the international Argo program from “Core Argo” to “Global Argo”, we are faced with great challenges in the long-term maintaining and sustained developing of our Argo ocean observing network. It is suggested that we should take the opportunity to construct China regional Argo ocean observing network as soon as possible in adjacent northwestern Pacific and Indian ocean using Chinese BeiDou profiling floats, which will make us to take responsibility and obligation of a big country for addressing global climate changes and preventing natural disasters.  相似文献   

Comparative Analysis of International Energy Consumption Characteristics and China's Countermeasures     

Yang Zhanhong  Lü  Lianhong  Cao Bao  Wang Xiao  Luo Hong 《地球科学进展》2016,31(1):94-102

With the rise of low carbon economy and the deterioration of the international energy situation, most countries in the world pay more attention to energy issues. In this paper, based on a comparison with several countries of large energy consumption, we used long sequence statistics to analyze the energy consumption characteristics from the world and the history, including energy consumption, energy consumption structure and energy efficiency, and then summed up the characteristics of energy consumption in developed countries, analyzed China's energy consumption process and the current stage, and found out the main problems of energy consumption in China. At last, countermeasures for the healthy development of China's energy were proposed, including actively promoting scientific and technological progress, upgrading energy structure, developing low carbon economy, rationalizing energy prices, improving the proportion of clean energy consumption and emphasizing synergistic effect on environment protection.  相似文献   

Radar-based collision avoidance for unmanned surface vehicles     

庄佳园  张磊  赵士奇  曹建  王博  孙寒冰 《中国海洋工程》2016,30(6):867-883

Unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) have become a focus of research because of their extensive applications. To ensure safety and reliability and to perform complex tasks autonomously, USVs are required to possess accurate perception of the environment and effective collision avoidance capabilities. To achieve these, investigation into realtime marine radar target detection and autonomous collision avoidance technologies is required, aiming at solving the problems of noise jamming, uneven brightness, target loss, and blind areas in marine radar images. These technologies should also satisfy the requirements of real-time and reliability related to high navigation speeds of USVs. Therefore, this study developed an embedded collision avoidance system based on the marine radar, investigated a highly real-time target detection method which contains adaptive smoothing algorithm and robust segmentation algorithm, developed a stable and reliable dynamic local environment model to ensure the safety of USV navigation, and constructed a collision avoidance algorithm based on velocity obstacle (V-obstacle) which adjusts the USV’s heading and speed in real-time. Sea trials results in multi-obstacle avoidance firstly demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed avoidance system, and then verify its great adaptability and relative stability when a USV sailing in a real and complex marine environment. The obtained results will improve the intelligent level of USV and guarantee the safety of USV independent sailing.  相似文献