Impact of anthropogenic CO 2 on the next glacial cycle     

Carmen Herrero  Antonio García-Olivares  Josep L. Pelegrí 《Climatic change》2014,122(1-2):283-298

The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3–4):263–271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1–25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO ₂ pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO ₂, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO ₂ condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO ₂ values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation.  相似文献   

Impact of the past mining activity in Roşia Montană (Romania) on soil and vegetation     

Adina-Laura Lazăr  Călin Baciu  Carmen Roba  Tiberius Dicu  Cristian Pop  Călin Rogozan  Cristina Dobrotă 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(11):4653-4666

The paper presents the results of a combined soil and vegetation survey in Ro?ia Montan? mining area (western Romania), famous for its gold and silver deposits, extensively exploited over the last 2,000 years. As the ore extraction has ceased in 2006 and new operations could be initiated in the future, the study contributes to the definition of the environmental baseline. Samples of topsoil and leaves of the tree species Betula pendula and Carpinus betulus have been collected from the inside and outside of the mining area, on a total surface of more than 60 km². The pH and heavy metal concentrations (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) have been measured on 262 soils/sediments samples, revealing the predominantly acidic character of soils and the generally low contents of heavy metals. Stronger acidity and higher contents of heavy metals have been noticed in the proximity of the mining site, on the tailings and waste rock dumps, and along the streams with acid water. More than 100 leaf samples have been analysed for the same heavy metals as soils and also for chlorophyll fluorescence and pigment concentrations. B. pendula has shown a particular ability to concentrate Zn in leaves, at levels that may greatly exceed the Zn content in the corresponding soil samples. The correlation between the heavy metal contents in leaves and in soils, in most of the cases, is not very strong, presumably in relation to the low concentrations in soils. The chlorophyll concentration in leaves of B. pendula slightly diminishes on soils with low pH.  相似文献   

EURD observations of interstellar radiation     

Jerry Edelstein  Stuart Bowyer  Eric J. Korpela  Michael Lampton  JoaquÍn Trapero  José F. Gómez  Carmen Morales  Veronica Orozco 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2001,276(1):177-185

The hot interstellar medium (ISM) has far-reaching effect upon thestructure of galaxies. Although ISM heating processes are fairly wellunderstood, after decades of study, the processes that cool the hotinterstellar medium remain obscure. The EURD spectrograph was designed tomeasure the diffuse cosmic background from 350 to 1100 Å in order tostudy the hot ISM and the mechanisms by which it sheds its energy. Wepresent the first analysis of EURD observations of the cosmic background.These EURD observations have proven to be far more sensitive than previouswork; compared to previous results, we have improved the limits to theintensity of 450 to 900 Å line emission from the ISM by one to twoorders of magnitude. Our limit to OVI 1032 Å / 1038 Å doublet of 7900ph s^-1 cm^-2 str^-1 is the lowest yet reported. The EURDlimits to line emission are less intense than predicted by a varietytheoretical models of the local ISM.  相似文献   

A Very Small Array search for the extended Sunyaev–Zel''dovich effect in the Corona Borealis supercluster     

Ricardo Génova-Santos  José Alberto Rubiño-Martín  Rafael Rebolo †  Kieran Cleary ‡  Rod D. Davies  Richard J. Davis  Clive Dickinson §  Nelson Falcón ‡‡  Keith Grainge  Carlos M. Gutiérrez  Michael P. Hobson  Michael E. Jones ¶  Rüdiger Kneissl &#;  Katy Lancaster  Carmen P. Padilla-Torres  Richard D. E. Saunders  Paul F. Scott  Angela C. Taylor ¶  Robert A. Watson †† 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,363(1):79-92

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The nature and possible origin of lava-like material within cheniér crater     

Carmen J. Villella 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1977,17(4):343-352

This paper considers the origin of certain tongues of lava-like material in Cheniér Crater, a meteorite crater located about 63 km northeast of the major crater, Tsiolkovsky, on the lunar far side. The author contends that the tongues originated from subsurface movement of magma generated as a result of the meteorite impact which created Tsiolkovsky Crater. The impact produced lines of weakness which were further enhanced by the impact forming Cheniér. Magma then moved from Tsiolkovsky through the zones of weakness to Cheniér Crater, extruding on the surface to form the first stringer. Following the extrusion, magnetic movement stopped and a cap formed over the vent. Enough heat was left in place under Cheniér, however, to cause crustal melting and consequently the extrusion of a second and possible third lava-like stringer before the magma chamber under Cheniér cooled and a cap over the vents permanently formed. Confirmation of the theory depends upon whether magma can move through weak zones in the lunar subsurface. Indications of this possibility have been suggested in findings dealing with the floors of Tycho and Aristarchus craters and in a study of the effects of artificial cratering.  相似文献   

Unpacking governance: Building adaptive capacity to climate change of river basins in Brazil   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nathan L. Engle  Maria Carmen Lemos 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(1):4-13

Governance and institutions are critical determinants of adaptive capacity and resilience. Yet the make-up and relationships between governance components and mechanisms that may or may not contribute to adaptive capacity remain relatively unexplored empirically. This paper builds on previous research focusing on integrated water resources management in Brazil to ‘unpack’ water governance mechanisms that may shape the adaptive capacity of water systems to climatic change. We construct a river basin index to characterize governance approaches in 18 Brazilian river basins, apply a reliability test to assess the validity of these governance indicators, and use in-depth qualitative data collected in a subsample of the basins to explore the relationship between the governance indicators and adaptive capacity. The analysis suggests a positive relationship between integrated water governance mechanisms and adaptive capacity. In addition, we carry out a cluster analysis to group the basins into types of governance approaches and further unveil potential relationships between the governance variables and overall adaptive capacities. The cluster analysis indicates that tensions and tradeoffs may exist between some of the variables, especially with equality of decision making and knowledge availability; a finding that has implications for decision makers aiming to build adaptive capacity and resilience through governance and institutional means.  相似文献   

Reproduction of Donax venustus Poli 1795, Donax semistriatus Poli 1795 and Intermediate Morphotypes (Bivalvia: Donacidae) in the Littoral of Málaga (Southern Spain)     

Cristina Tirado  &Carmen Salas 《Marine Ecology》1999,20(2):111-130

The reproduction and sexual cycles of Donax venustus Poli 1795, Donax semistriatus Poli 1795, and individuals with intermediate shell morphotypes were studied in the littoral of Málaga (Southern Spain) from February 1990 to January 1991, using histology and analysing the changes in flesh dry weight. The littoral of Málaga has mild seawater temperatures and several upwellings with high levels of chlorophyll a. Due to these environmental conditions, the reproductive periods of these bivalve species are very extensive, from February to November. The histological study shows asynchronous sexual cycles, with continuous but partial individual spawnings from April to November in about 50% of the D. semistriatus population, and percentages higher than 40% of the sample in most months for D. venustus. An important decrease in the ratio flesh dry weight/length³ was noted from June to August in the three populations; this is apparently related with peaks of spawning. Based on the macroscopic observation of the gonads, on the flesh dry weight study and on histological data, the sexual cycle of the intermediate morphotypes is simultaneous and similar throughout the year with those of D. venustus and D. semistriatus .  相似文献   

Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island,Antarctica     

Mario?GómezEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  M.?Concepción Ausín  M.?Carmen Domínguez 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1107-1121

Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.  相似文献   

Dating lava flows of tropical volcanoes by means of spatial modeling of vegetation recovery   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Long Li  Lien Bakelants  Carmen Solana  Frank Canters  Matthieu Kervyn 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(4):840-856

The age of past lava flows is crucial information for evaluating the hazards and risks posed by effusive volcanoes, but traditional dating methods are expensive and time‐consuming. This study proposes an alternative statistical dating method based on remote sensing observations of tropical volcanoes by exploiting the relationship between lava flow age and vegetation cover. First, the factors controlling vegetation density on lava flows, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were investigated. These factors were then integrated into pixel‐based multi‐variable regression models of lava flow age to derive lava flow age maps. The method was tested at a pixel scale on three tropical African volcanoes with considerable recent effusive activity: Nyamuragira (Democratic Republic of Congo), Mt Cameroon (Cameroon) and Karthala (the Comoros). Due to different climatic and topographic conditions, the parameters of the spatial modeling are volcano‐specific. Validation suggests that the obtained statistical models are robust and can thus be applied for estimating the age of unmodified undated lava flow surfaces for these volcanoes. When the models are applied to fully vegetated lava flows, the results should be interpreted with caution due to the saturation of NDVI. In order to improve the accuracy of the models, when available, spatial data on temperature and precipitation should be included to directly represent climatic variation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Large Earthquakes at the Ibero-Maghrebian Region: Basis for an EEWS     

Elisa?BufornEmail author  Agustín?Udías  Carmen?Pro 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(9):2387-2396

Large earthquakes (M_w > 6, I_max > VIII) occur at the Ibero-Maghrebian region, extending from a point (12ºW) southwest of Cape St. Vincent to Tunisia, with different characteristics depending on their location, which cause considerable damage and casualties. Seismic activity at this region is associated with the boundary between the lithospheric plates of Eurasia and Africa, which extends from the Azores Islands to Tunisia. The boundary at Cape St. Vincent, which has a clear oceanic nature in the westernmost part, experiences a transition from an oceanic to a continental boundary, with the interaction of the southern border of the Iberian Peninsula, the northern border of Africa, and the Alboran basin between them, corresponding to a wide area of deformation. Further to the east, the plate boundary recovers its oceanic nature following the northern coast of Algeria and Tunisia. The region has been divided into four zones with different seismic characteristics. From west to east, large earthquake occurrence, focal depth, total seismic moment tensor, and average seismic slip velocities for each zone along the region show the differences in seismic release of deformation. This must be taken into account in developing an EEWS for the region.  相似文献