Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France     

Christophe Martin  Gabriele Ameri  David Baumont  David Carbon  Gloria Senfaute  Jean-Michel Thiry  Ezio Faccioli  Jean Savy 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2477-2511

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.  相似文献   

Equilibrium modeling of the beach profile on a macrotidal embayed low tide terrace beach     

Clara Lemos  France Floc’h  Marissa Yates  Nicolas Le Dantec  Vincent Marieu  Klervi Hamon  Véronique Cuq  Serge Suanez  Christophe Delacourt 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(9):1207-1220

Eleven-year long time series of monthly beach profile surveys and hourly incident wave conditions are analyzed for a macrotidal Low Tide Terrace beach. The lower intertidal zone of the beach has a pluriannual cycle, whereas the upper beach profile has a predominantly seasonal cycle. An equilibrium model is applied to study the variation of the contour elevation positions in the intertidal zone as a function of the wave energy, wave power, and water level. When forcing the model with wave energy, the predictive ability of the equilibrium model is around 60% in the upper intertidal zone but decreases to 40% in the lower intertidal zone. Using wave power increases the predictive ability up to 70% in both the upper and lower intertidal zones. However, changes around the inflection point are not well predicted. The equilibrium model is then extended to take into account the effects of the tide level. The initial results do not show an increase in the predictive capacity of the model, but do allow the model free parameters to represent more accurately the values expected in a macrotidal environment. This allows comparing the empirical model calibration in different tidal environment. The interpretation of the model free parameter variation across the intertidal zone highlights the behavior of the different zones along the intertidal beach profile. This contributes to a global interpretation of the four model parameters for beaches with different tidal ranges, and therefore to a global model applicable at a wide variety sites.  相似文献   

Climatic and structural controls on Late-glacial and Holocene rockfall occurrence in high-elevated rock walls of the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps)     

Xavi Gallach  Julien Carcaillet  Ludovic Ravanel  Philip Deline  Christophe Ogier  Magali Rossi  Emmanuel Malet  David Garcia-Sellés 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(13):3071-3091

In the Mont Blanc massif (European Western Alps), rockfalls are one of the main natural hazards for alpinists and infrastructure. Rockfall activity after the Little Ice Age is well documented. An increase in frequency during the last three decades is related to permafrost degradation caused by rising air temperatures. In order to understand whether climate exerts a long-term control on rockfall occurrence, a selection of paleo-rockfall scars was dated in the Glacier du Géant basin [>3200 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides. Rockfall occurrence was compared to different climatic and glacial proxies. This study presents 55 new samples (including replicates) and 25 previously-published ages from nine sampling sites. In total, 62 dated rockfall events display ages ranging from 0.03 ± 0.02 ka to 88.40 ± 7.60 ka. Holocene ages and their uncertainties were used to perform a Kernel density function into a continuous dataset displaying rockfall probability per 100 years. Results highlight four Holocene periods of enhanced rockfall occurrence: (i) c. 7–5.7 ka, related to the Holocene Warm Periods; (ii) c. 4.5–4 ka, related to the Sub-boreal Warm Period; (iii) c. 2.3–1.6 ka, related to the Roman Warm Period; and (iv) c. 0.9–0.3 ka, related to the Medieval Warm Period and beginning of the Little Ice Age. Laser and photogrammetric three-dimensional (3D) models of the rock walls were produced to reconstruct the detached volumes from the best-preserved rockfall scars (≤0.91 ± 0.12 ka). A structural study was carried out at the scale of the Glacier du Géant basin using aerial photographs, and at the scale of four selected rock walls using the 3D models. Two main vertical and one horizontal fracture sets were identified. They correspond respectively to alpine shear zones and veins opened-up during long-term exhumation of the Mont Blanc massif. Our study confirms that climate primarily controls rockfall occurrence, and that structural settings, coincident at both the massif and the rock wall scales, control the rock-wall shapes as well as the geometry and volume of the rockfall events. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Cooling history of nested plutons from the Variscan Tichka plutonic complex (Morocco)     

Lécuyer  Christophe  Gasquet  Dominique  Allemand  Pascal  Martineau  François  Martinez  Isabelle 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2017,106(8):2855-2872

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Four imbricated mafic to felsic plutons of Variscan age from Morocco have been investigated for their cooling history and geochemical interactions with...  相似文献   

Erosion rates and sediment budgets in vineyards at 1-m resolution based on stock unearthing (Burgundy, France)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jrme Brenot  Amlie Quiquerez  Christophe Petit  Jean-Pierre Garcia 《Geomorphology》2008,100(3-4):345-355

A new and simple method is developed to efficiently quantify erosion and deposition rates based on stock unearthing measurements. This is applicable to spatial scales ranging from plot to hillslopes, and to time scales ranging from single hydrologic events to centennial scales. The method is applied to a plot area on vineyard hillslopes in Burgundy (Monthélie, France), with measurement of 4328 vine plants. A sediment budget established at the plot scale shows a mean soil lowering of 3.44 ± 1 cm over 20 years, involving a minimal erosion rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm yr^− 1. Locally, erosion rates can reach up to 8.2 ± 0.5 mm yr^− 1.This approach allows the sediment redistribution to be mapped and analyzed at 1-m resolution. It provides novel insights into the characterization of erosion patterns on pluri-decennial scales and into the analysis of spatial distribution of erosion processes on cultivated hillslopes.  相似文献   

Metal Concentrations in Plants from Mining Areas in South Morocco: Health Risks Assessment of Consumption of Edible and Aromatic Plants          下载免费PDF全文

Ouafae El Hamiani  Hicham El Khalil  Catherine Sirguey  Ahmed Ouhammou  Gabriel Bitton  Christophe Schwartz  Ali Boularbah 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2015,43(3):399-407

  相似文献   

Building frequency fluctuations from continuous monitoring of ambient vibrations and their relationship to temperature variations     

Bertrand?GuillierEmail author  Jean-Luc?Chatelain  Hugo?Perfettini  El?Hadi?Oubaiche  Christophe?Voisin  Rabah?Bensalem  Djamel?Machane  Mustapha?Hellel 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(8):2213-2227

Building frequencies (fundamental and higher modes) are a critical parameter especially in the field of structural health monitoring mainly based on the stability of the structural dynamic parameters of individual building (frequencies, damping and modes shape). One of the most used methods to find out these parameters is based on the use on ambient vibration analysis. In this work, we study the fluctuations over a month period of the fundamental frequencies (transverse and longitudinal) of a 3.5-story RC-building made of 2 identical units connected by a structural joint. Time independent building frequencies is a strong assumption; as illustrated by our experiment showing that over an observation period of a month, building frequencies fluctuate of about 3.5 %. A clear correlation is found between the building frequency fluctuations and temperature variations, with a phase-shift interpreted as the characteristic time of heat diffusion within the walls. This allows: (1) determining the thermal diffusivity of the structure, (2) inferring its relative stiffness variations, and (3) showing that its Young modulus varies linearly with temperature.  相似文献   

A spatial cross‐correlation model of spectral accelerations at multiple periods     

Christophe Loth  Jack W. Baker 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(3):397-417

Many seismic loss problems (such as disruption of distributed infrastructure and losses to portfolios of structures) are dependent upon the regional distribution of ground‐motion intensity, rather than intensity at only a single site. Quantifying ground‐motion over a spatially‐distributed region therefore requires information on the correlation between the ground‐motion intensities at different sites during a single event. The focus of the present study is to assess the spatial correlation between ground‐motion spectral accelerations at different periods. Ground motions from eight well‐recorded earthquakes were used to study the spatial correlations. On the basis of obtained empirical correlation estimates, we propose a geostatistics‐based method to formulate a predictive model that is suitable for simulation of spectral accelerations at multiple sites and multiple periods, in the case of crustal earthquakes in active seismic regions. While the calibration of this model and investigation of its implications were somewhat complex, the model itself is very simple to use for making correlation predictions. A user only needs to evaluate a simple equation relying on three sets of coefficients provided here to compute a correlation coefficient for spectral values at two periods and at a specified separation distance. These results may then be used in evaluating the seismic risk of portfolios of structures with differing fundamental periods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Panta Rhei 2013–2015: global perspectives on hydrology,society and change     

Hilary McMillan  Alberto Montanari  Christophe Cudennec  Hubert Savenije  Heidi Kreibich  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1174-1191

ABSTRACT

In 2013, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) launched the hydrological decade 2013–2022 with the theme “Panta Rhei: Change in Hydrology and Society”. The decade recognizes the urgency of hydrological research to understand and predict the interactions of society and water, to support sustainable water resource use under changing climatic and environmental conditions. This paper reports on the first Panta Rhei biennium 2013–2015, providing a comprehensive resource that describes the scope and direction of Panta Rhei. We bring together the knowledge of all the Panta Rhei working groups, to summarize the most pressing research questions and how the hydrological community is progressing towards those goals. We draw out interconnections between different strands of research, and reflect on the need to take a global view on hydrology in the current era of human impacts and environmental change. Finally, we look back to the six driving science questions identified at the outset of Panta Rhei, to quantify progress towards those aims.