Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda,northern Italy   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Byron Quan Luna  Jan Blahut  Corrado Camera  Cees van Westen  Tiziana Apuani  Victor Jetten  Simone Sterlacchini 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(3):645-661

Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used.  相似文献   

Ethnic migration between area groups in England and Wales     

James Raymer  Corrado Giulietti 《Area》2009,41(4):435-451

Minority ethnic populations in England and Wales have been increasing steadily as a share of the total population since the 1991 Census. In this paper, we are interested in how internal migration has changed as a possible consequence. Our analysis focuses on the movements between 12 area groups, as defined by the Office for National Statistics, and addresses the following three research questions: (1) how has internal migration in England and Wales evolved from 1991 to 2004; (2) what are the main differences in the movements between the White (majority) population and the ethnic minority population; and (3) how do migration patterns differ when ethnicity, education and employment statuses are considered together? The data come from the 1991 to 2004 National Health Service Central Registers, the 1999–2004 patient registers and the 2001 Census. We find strong stability in the migration patterns of the total population over time. However, large differences appear when the flows are disaggregated by ethnicity and further by education and employment. Education level is an important factor influencing the migration patterns for the White population, whereas employment status is a much more important factor for the ethnic minority population.  相似文献   

Massive antigravity field and incomplete black hole evaporation     

Corrado Massa 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,314(1-3):23-24

If gravity is a mixture of the ordinary attractive force carried by the massless graviton, and of a repulsive force carried by a particle with nonzero mass, an evaporating black hole might leave a stable remnant.  相似文献   

A new limit on time dependence of the gravitational constant from gravity modified quantum electrodynamics     

Corrado Massa 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1993,209(2):307-308

The time variation of the gravitational constantG is discussed in the light of the gravity modified form of quantum electrodynamics. From the experimental upper limit |a/| < 5 × 10^–15 yr^–1 on the time variation of the electromagnetic fine structure constant one finds |/G| < 5 × 10^–13 yr^–1.  相似文献   

Copper complexing capacity of phytoplanktonic cell exudates     

Alfredo Seritti  David Pellegrini  Elisabetta Morelli  Corrado Barghigiani  Romano Ferrara 《Marine Chemistry》1986,18(2-4)

Copper complexing capacity of cell exudates of Dunaliella salina in natural seawater culture medium was investigated in order to evaluate the influence of this organism on speciation of trace metals in seawater.Seawater samples were collected at 200 m and 2 miles off the coast and immediately filtered. Copper complexing capacity (CC_Cu) and stability constants (K′) of related cupric complexes were then measured. They were, respectively, 27.1 × 10⁻⁸ mol l⁻¹ and 0.56 × 10⁷ l mol⁻¹ for the samples collected at 200 m and 12.8 × 10⁻⁸ mol l⁻¹ and 6.10 × 10⁷ l mol⁻¹ for those collected 2 miles off the coast. A stock culture (20 ml, 10⁶ cells ml⁻¹) in log-phase was inoculated in 2 l of each sample of filtered natural seawater. The trend of cell influence was estimated on filtered culture medium by measuring CC_Cu and K′ after 1 h, 3 and 7 days. From the results it appears that CC_Cu increased with respect to time and this was related to the growth rate, indicating a certain relationship with cell metabolic activity.It can be concluded that a comparison between the culture referring to 200 m and 2 miles, respectively, shows that the former presents a CC_Cu two times higher than the latter while the K′ is ten times higher at 2 miles than that at 200 m.  相似文献   

Polyphase metamorphism in the eastern Carnic Alps (N Italy–S Austria): clay minerals and conodont Colour Alteration Index evidence     

Covadonga Brime  Maria Cristina Perri  Monica Pondrelli  Claudia Spalletta  Corrado Venturini 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2008,97(6):1213-1229

Thermal evolution of the Palaeozoic–Triassic sequences of the Carnic Alps has been characterized by b cell dimension and Kübler Index (illite “crystallinity”) of K-white micas (KI), árkai Index (AI) of chlorites, clay mineral assemblages and conodont Colour Alteration Index (CAI). Data indicate at least two metamorphic events, Variscan and Alpine. In the older event high anchizonal conditions predominated although epizonal conditions were reached over wide areas. It was characterized by low-intermediate pressure facies. The thermal peak was mainly due to an extensional regime during the Bashkirian. A younger thermal overprint generated by Alpine orogeny was of lower grade, reaching high diagenetic–anchizonal conditions characterized by high-pressure facies. Inverted metamorphic patterns are associated with middle to late Miocene thrusting. Hydrothermal alteration in the northern part of the region can be linked with emplacement of Oligocene plutons and high heat flow along the Periadratic lineament. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

Inheritance of Jurassic rifted margin architecture into the Apennines Neogene mountain building: a case history from the Lucretili Mts. (Latium, Central Italy)     

Andrea Bollati  Sveva Corrado  Maurizio Marino 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(4):1011-1031

The western Lucretili Mts. in the central Apennines (Latium, Italy) have been recently re-mapped in great detail and are the subject of combined stratigraphic, sedimentological and structural investigations. In this paper, we present a new stratigraphic interpretation of the Jurassic paleogeography of western Lucretili Mts., where a rift-derived intrabasinal paleo-high of the Alpine Tethys has been identified for the first time by means of facies analysis and biostratigraphic dating. Recognised facies associations, combined with dated stratigraphic sections, allow to define the morphology of the structural paleo-high and to identify the associated gravity-driven deposits (olistoliths) accumulated in the surrounding basin. Furthermore, we investigated the modes of interaction between Jurassic extensional structures and the subsequent contractional patterns developed during the Tertiary mountain building. In detail, the role played during Apennines tectonics by the paleo-escarpments bounding the paleo-high and by the surrounding olistoliths has been analysed. The paleo-escarpments either acted as focussing features for ENE-directed frontal thrust ramp localisation and were offset with small shortening amounts or reactivated as NNE striking high angle transpressional faults or preserved the original geometries as a result of variable orientation of paleo-escarpments with respect to the Neogene compressive stress field (with ENE oriented sigma1). Newly formed ENE striking tear faults connect these either inherited or neo-formed discontinuities. This complex stratigraphic and structural pattern is substantially different from the previous interpretations of this portion of the central Apennines based on a hypothesised layer-cake stratigraphy deformed by neo-formed Neogene thrusts. This contribution strengthens the importance of integrating facies analyses and structural investigations to detect the influence of pre-orogenic structures on compressive structural patterns, in an area where commercial seismic lines are not available and cannot help in reconstructing the subsurface geometries.  相似文献   

A field‐scale infiltration model accounting for spatial heterogeneity of rainfall and soil saturated hydraulic conductivity     

Renato Morbidelli  Corrado Corradini  Rao S. Govindaraju 《水文研究》2006,20(7):1465-1481

This study first explores the role of spatial heterogeneity, in both the saturated hydraulic conductivity K_s and rainfall intensity r, on the integrated hydrological response of a natural slope. On this basis, a mathematical model for estimating the expected areal‐average infiltration is then formulated. Both K_s and r are considered as random variables with assessed probability density functions. The model relies upon a semi‐analytical component, which describes the directly infiltrated rainfall, and an empirical component, which accounts further for the infiltration of surface water running downslope into pervious soils (the run‐on effect). Monte Carlo simulations over a clay loam soil and a sandy loam soil were performed for constructing the ensemble averages of field‐scale infiltration used for model validation. The model produced very accurate estimates of the expected field‐scale infiltration rate, as well as of the outflow generated by significant rainfall events. Furthermore, the two model components were found to interact appropriately for different weights of the two infiltration mechanisms involved. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Relativistic Cosmology with Zero Deceleration Parameter     

Corrado Massa 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,253(2):285-289

The possibility that the deceleration parameter q might be a null constant is discussed; such possibilitiy is interesting because solves the horizon problem and the flatness problem with no need of inflation. A simple way to get q = const = 0 is explored: the way assumes Einstein's field equations without cosmological term and introduces a massless scalar field V with negative energy density. Both in the early and in the present universe one finds the Whitrow-Randall relation Gut² = const 1 G gravitational coupling, u mass-energy density, t cosmic time). The interaction between the V-field and the ordinary matter is briefly discussed; as possible consequence of this interaction the true value of the Hubble parameter might be one half the observed value. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

The dynamics of a double-cell hydrothermal system in triggering seismicity at Somma-Vesuvius: results from a high-resolution radon survey (revisited)     

Corrado Cigolini 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(6):693-704

Data collected at Somma-Vesuvius during the 1998–1999 radon surveys have been revisited and reinterpreted in light of recent geophysical and geochemical information. The duration of selected radon anomalies, together with the decay properties of radon, have been used to estimate the permeability and porosity of rocks of the deep hydrothermal system. The current local cyclic seismicity is explained by means of a double convective-cell model. Convective cells are separated by a low-permeability horizon located at about 2–2.5 km below sea level. Fluids convecting within the upper cells show temperatures ranging 300–350°C. Rock permeabilities in this sector are estimated on the order of 10⁻¹² m², for porosities (ϕ) of about 10⁻⁵ typical of a brittle environment where fluid velocities may reach ∼800 m/day. Fluid temperatures within the lower cells may be as high as 400–450°C, consistent with supercritical regimes. The hydrodynamic parameters for these cells are lower, with permeability k ∼ 10⁻¹⁵ m², and porosity ranging from 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻⁷. Here, fluid motion toward the surface is controlled by the fracture network within a porous medium approaching brittle–ductile behaviour, and fluid velocities may reach ∼1,800 m/day. The low-permeability horizon is a layer where upper and lower convecting cells converge. In this region, fluids (convecting both at upper and lower levels) percolate through the wallrock and release their brines. Due to self-sealing processes, permeability within this horizon reaches critical values to keep the fluid pressure near lithostatic pressure (for k ∼ 10⁻¹⁸ m²). Deep fluid pressure buildups precede the onset of hydrothermally induced earthquakes. Permeability distribution and rock strength do not exclude that the next eruption at Somma-Vesuvius could be preceded by a seismic crisis, eventually leading to a precursory phreatic explosion. The coupling of these mechanisms has the potential of inducing pervasive failure within rocks of the hydrothermal shell, and may be a prelude to a magmatic eruption. It is finally emphasised that the integrated analysis of seismic and geochemical data, including radon emissions, could be successfully used in testing temperature distributions and variations of porosity and permeability in active geothermal reservoirs.  相似文献