关于ENSO及其统计预测方法评估     

丁裕国  程正泉 《山东气象》2002,22(3):6-9

结合近年来“九五”国家重中之重项目有关ENSO业务预报系统研究工作的体会和见解 ,简要综述了近年来ENSO的预报问题 ,尤其是ENSO统计预测方法的研究成果 ,并对各种预报方法的效果进行评价。  相似文献   

塔里木盆地中新生代海侵和海相地层研究的新进展   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17       下载免费PDF全文

郭宪璞  丁孝忠等 《地质学报》2002,76(3):299-307

中新生代海侵是塔里木盆地地质发展史上的重要事件之一。通过对新近发现的古生物化石和海相地层资料研究，本文提出了早白垩世、晚白垩世、古近纪的海侵范围的新认识。同时，依据露头和钻井资料提出了中新世海水分布的新范围。这些新成果对厘定塔里木盆地中新生代地层时代，建立整个盆地中新生代地层格架和油气远景分析具有重要意义。  相似文献   

青藏高原各拉丹冬地区冰川变化的遥感监测   总被引：49，自引：20，他引：49  

鲁安新  姚檀栋  刘时银  丁良福  李刚 《冰川冻土》2002,24(5):559-562

以位于青藏高原长江源头的各拉丹冬地区冰川为例, 利用2000年的TM数字遥感影像资料、 1969年的航空相片遥感资料、地形图及数字地形模型, 通过遥感图像处理和分析提取研究区小冰期最盛期(LIA)、 1969年和2000年的冰川范围, 并在地理信息系统技术支持下分析该地区冰川的进退情况. 研究结果表明, 该地区1969年冰川面积比小冰期最盛期的冰川面积减少了5.2%, 2000年的冰川面积比1969年的冰川面积减少了1.7%. 从1969年到2000年最大冰川退缩速度为-41.5 m*a-1, 最大冰川前进速度为+21.9 m*a-1. 本区的冰川基本处于稳定状态, 冰川退缩的速度不是太大, 并有前进的冰川存在.  相似文献   

沙漠化:从圈层耦合到全球变化   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

段怡春  陈建平  厉青  丁火平  黄定华 《地学前缘》2002,9(2):277-285

从沙漠化概念提出伊始 ,沙漠化成因机理的研究就一直成为学术界关注的焦点。沙漠化过程究竟有多少是由自然因素所致 ,多少是由人类活动所为 ,诸因素与沙漠化之间有何内在关系 ,沙尘天气发生发展过程及其诱因等 ,当属地球系统科学应解决的难题。文章从全球变化的角度 ,将沙漠系统视作一种类生命的非线性动力系统 ,指出沙漠化源于地球表层系统各圈层之间复杂的相关与耦合作用 :气候变化是控制沙漠进退的首要因素 ;陆表水持续亏损则是导致干旱、半干旱地区沙漠化发展的直接原因 ;岩石圈构造运动塑造了不同的地形地貌单元 ,奠定了沙漠分布的地理格局 ;人类的不当活动和气候变化引起的生物生产力的衰退及土地覆盖的破坏 ,造成了现代沙漠化的快速扩张。  相似文献   

海拉尔盆地含油气系统   总被引：41，自引：5，他引：41  

陈守田  刘招君  崔凤林  丁玲  丁淑霞 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2002,32(2):151-154

海拉尔盆地为中－新生代的断陷－坳陷型盆地，其发育演化主要经历了地壳隆起、断陷、坳陷、萎缩四个阶段。根据对成藏要素分析，确定出以凹陷为单元的三类含油气系统，各含油气系统都有各自的形成和分布规律。按其空间展布，又可划分为同期并列式、同期交叉式、异期叠合式三种组合形式。这些形式的有效组合，构成了海拉尔盆地内有利的油气聚集带。  相似文献   

机械研磨对平鲁煤系高岭石热行为的影响     

丁述理  彭苏萍  刘钦甫  许红亮 《煤田地质与勘探》2002,30(6):16-18

对煤系高岭石进行0-2h的研磨之后，再在900℃、1000℃、1400℃的温度条件下分别对其加热1h，然后利用X射线衍射（XRD）、差热分析（DTA）、红外光谱（IR）等手段，研究机械研磨对于煤系高岭石晶体结构的破坏作用以及对其热行为的影响。结果显示，煤系高岭石被研磨1h之后，高岭石的晶体结构几乎全部跨塌。把研磨1h的煤系高岭石加热到1000℃（加热1h），便能形成结晶良好的莫来石。  相似文献   

East Asian monsoon instability at the stage 5a/4 transition   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

SHANGFA XIONG  ZHONGLI DING  TUNGSHENG LIU  JINGZHAO ZHANG 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2002,31(2):126-132

The physics involved in the abrupt climate changes of the late Quaternary have eluded paleoclimatologists for many years. More paleoclimatic records characteristic of different elements of the global climate system are needed for better understanding of the cause-feedback relationships in the system. The East Asian monsoon is an important part of the global climate system and the mechanical links between the East Asian monsoon and other climatic elements around the world may hold a key to our knowledge of abrupt climate changes in East Asia and probably over a larger part of the globe. Previous studies have detected millennial-scale winter monsoon oscillations during the last glaciation and probably also during the last interglaciation in loess sequences across China. However, less attention has been paid to the abrupt summer monsoon changes and the stage 5a/ 4 transition, an important period for the evolution of the East Asian monsoon when the global climate shifted towards the last glaciation. Here we report on two loess sections from eastern China which were dated using a thermoluminescence (TL) technique. The pedogenic and other sediment parameters suggest that the summer monsoon experienced a two-step abrupt retreat at the stage 5a/4 transition. The variations in the proxies for the winter monsoon are synchronized with the summer monsoon proxies during this brief interval, implying a direct and immediate link between high latitude and low latitude mechanisms. These changes may be correlated with similar climatic oscillations observed in the North Atlantic, Europe and Antarctica, raising the possibility that the forcing factors that induced these changes are global in extent.  相似文献   

MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART Ⅰ:MASS FLUX SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION OF THE 1991 FLOOD EVENT^*          下载免费PDF全文

LIU Yiming  DING Yihui 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2002,16(1):37-49

Based on the existing cumulus convective parameterization schemes,a mass flux scheme (MFS) for cumulus convective parameterization has been successfully developed by reference to the work of Chen et al. (1996).The MFS is a comprehensive scheme.In MFS,not only the importance of the large-scale moisture convergence is taken into account,but also it includes the cumulus updrafts and downdrafts,cumulus-induced subsidence in the environmental air.entrainment,detrainment and evaporation.The interaction between the cumulus and the environment is described by using a one-dimensional bulk model.At the same time the scheme includes the penetrative and shallow convections.The MFS has been successfully incorporated into the regional climate model RegCM2 developed by NCAR.The new model has been applied to simulate summer monsoon characteristics and their variations of heavy rainfall process in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basins for three months from May to July 1991.The results show that the new model can successfully simulate this rainfall prolonged process.By comparising the model outputs of RegCM2.using the Kuo scheme and the MFS.it is found that the MFS is better in simulating the surface temperature,rainfall position and amount,and rainfall duration.  相似文献   

数字化射线照相技术对轻物质的判断     

韩裕生  罗娅  丁厚本  邵立康  廖南  朱平安 《CT理论与应用研究》2002,11(1):10-12

本文介绍了数字化射线照相技术对轻物质进行判断的方法。经实践证明，该方法是合理和有效的，可大大增强对轻物质的识别能力，是一种非常可行的识别技术。  相似文献   

SIMULATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SUMMER OF 1998 OVER CHINA WITH REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

刘一鸣  丁一汇 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2002,(3)

The heavy rainfall in the summer of 1998 over China has been simulated with the NCCRegional Climate Model(RegCM_NCC).It was successful for RegCM_NCC to reproduce thelocation and seasonal shift of the seasonal rain belt in the summer of 1998 over China.The rainyseason in the summer of 1998 over China can be divided into 7 episodes,including the pre-summerrainy season in South China.the Meiyu onset over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin,shortappearance of North China rain season and the retreat of seasonal rain belt,the second Meiyuseason over the Yangtze River Valley,the rainy period over the Yellow and Huaihe River Valleyand the seasonal retreat of rain belt over North China.The shortcoming of the RegCM_NCC isover-estimation of precipitation amounts.The regions with large latent heat flux,upper soilmoisture and total runoff are located in the rainy area and move with the simulated rain belt duringthe different episodes.On the contrary,the regions with small sensible heat flux are located in thesimulated rainy area and move with the simulated rain belt during the different episodes.  相似文献