Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept          下载免费PDF全文

James O. Knighton  M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3788-3803

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stress Analysis in Boreholes Drag Bh and Leknes Bh,Nordland, North Norway     

Maria V. S. Ask  Daniel Ask  Harald Elvebakk  Odleiv Olesen 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(4):1475-1484

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Does stress transmission in forelands depend on structural style? Distinctive stress magnitudes during Sevier thin‐skinned and Laramide thick‐skinned layer‐parallel shortening in the Bighorn Basin (USA) revealed by stylolite and calcite twinning paleopiezometry     

Nicolas Beaudoin  Olivier Lacombe  Marie‐Elonore David  Daniel Koehn 《地学学报》2020,32(3):225-233

The Sheep Mountain‐Little Sheep Mountain Anticlines, Bighorn Basin (USA) formed as basement‐cored Laramide structures in the formerly undeformed foreland of the thin‐skinned Sevier orogen. We take advantage of the well‐constrained microstructural network there to reconstruct differential stress magnitudes that prevailed during both Sevier and Laramide layer‐parallel shortening (LPS), before the onset of large‐scale folding. Differential stress magnitudes determined from tectonic stylolites are compared and combined to previous stress estimates from calcite twinning paleopiezometry in the same formations. During stress loading related to LPS, differential stress magnitudes transmitted from the distant Sevier thin‐skinned orogen into the sedimentary cover of the Bighorn basin (11–43 MPa) are higher than the differential stress magnitudes accompanying the early stage of LPS related to the thick‐skinned Laramide deformation (2–19 MPa). This study illustrates that the tectonic style of an orogen affects the transmission of early orogenic stress into the stable continental interior.  相似文献   

Estimation of daily stream water temperatures with a Bayesian regression approach          下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad M. Sohrabi  Rohan Benjankar  Daniele Tonina  Seth J. Wenger  Daniel J. Isaak 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1719-1733

Stream water temperature plays a significant role in aquatic ecosystems where it controls many important biological and physical processes. Reliable estimates of water temperature at the daily time step are critical in managing water resources. We developed a parsimonious piecewise Bayesian model for estimating daily stream water temperatures that account for temporal autocorrelation and both linear and nonlinear relationships with air temperature and discharge. The model was tested at 8 climatically different basins of the USA and at 34 sites within the mountainous Boise River Basin (Idaho, USA). The results show that the proposed model is robust with an average root mean square error of 1.25 °C and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.92 over a 2‐year period. Our approach can be used to predict historic daily stream water temperatures in any location using observed daily stream temperature and regional air temperature data.  相似文献   

Landscape controls on long‐term runoff in subhumid heterogeneous Boreal Plains catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Kevin J. Devito  Kelly J. Hokanson  Paul Adrian Moore  Nicholas Kettridge  Axel E. Anderson  Laura Chasmer  Chris Hopkinson  Maxwell C. Lukenbach  Carl A. Mendoza  Julienne Morissette  Daniel L. Peters  Richard Michael Petrone  Uldis Silins  Brian Smerdon  James Michael Waddington 《水文研究》2017,31(15):2737-2751

We compared median runoff (R) and precipitation (P) relationships over 25 years from 20 mesoscale (50 to 5,000 km²) catchments on the Boreal Plains, Alberta, Canada, to understand controls on water sink and source dynamics in water‐limited, low‐relief northern environments. Long‐term catchment R and runoff efficiency (RP^?1) were low and varied spatially by over an order of magnitude (3 to 119 mm/year, 1 to 27%). Intercatchment differences were not associated with small variations in climate. The partitioning of P into evapotranspiration (ET) and R instead reflected the interplay between underlying glacial deposit texture, overlying soil‐vegetation land cover, and regional slope. Correlation and principal component analyses results show that peatland‐swamp wetlands were the major source areas of water. The lowest estimates of median annual catchment ET (321 to 395 mm) and greatest R (60 to 119 mm, 13 to 27% of P) were observed in low‐relief, peatland‐swamp dominated catchments, within both fine‐textured clay‐plain and coarse‐textured glacial deposits. In contrast, open‐water wetlands and deciduous‐mixedwood forest land covers acted as water sinks, and less catchment R was observed with increases in proportional coverage of these land covers. In catchments dominated by hummocky moraines, long‐term runoff was restricted to 10 mm/year, or 2% of P. This reflects the poor surface‐drainage networks and slightly greater regional slope of the fine‐textured glacial deposit, coupled with the large soil‐water and depression storage and higher actual ET of associated shallow open‐water marsh wetland and deciduous‐forest land covers. This intercatchment study enhances current conceptual frameworks for predicting water yield in the Boreal Plains based on the sink and source functions of glacial landforms and soil‐vegetation land covers. It offers the capability within this hydro‐geoclimatic region to design reclaimed catchments with desired hydrological functionality and associated tolerances to climate or land‐use changes and inform land management decisions based on effective catchment‐scale conceptual understanding.  相似文献   

Alongshore correspondence of beach users and rip channels at Pensacola Beach,Florida     

Chris Houser  Trey Murphy  Daniel Labude 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(3):2175-2183

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Late Quaternary sea‐level change and evolution of Belfast Lough,Northern Ireland: new offshore evidence and implications for sea‐level reconstruction     

Ruth M. K. Plets  S. Louise Callard  J. Andrew G. Cooper  Joseph T. Kelley  Daniel F. Belknap  Robin J. Edwards  Antony J. Long  Rory J. Quinn  Derek W. T. Jackson 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(4-5):285-298

The interplay of eustatic and isostatic factors causes complex relative sea‐level (RSL) histories, particularly in paraglacial settings. In this context the past record of RSL is important in understanding ice‐sheet history, earth rheology and resulting glacio‐isostatic adjustment. Field data to develop sea‐level reconstructions are often limited to shallow depths and uncertainty exists as to the veracity of modelled sea‐level curves. We use seismic stratigraphy, 39 vibrocores and 26 radiocarbon dates to investigate the deglacial history of Belfast Lough, Northern Ireland, and reconstruct past RSL. A typical sequence of till, glacimarine and Holocene sediments is preserved. Two sea‐level lowstands (both max. ?40 m) are recorded at c. 13.5 and 11.5k cal a bp . Each is followed by a rapid transgression and subsequent periods of RSL stability. The first transgression coincides temporally with a late stage of Meltwater Pulse 1a and the RSL stability occurred between c. 13.0 and c. 12.2k cal a bp (Younger Dryas). The second still/slowstand occurred between c. 10.3 and c. 11.5k cal a bp . Our data provide constraints on the direction and timing of RSL change during deglaciation. Application of the Depth of Closure concept adds an error term to sea‐level reconstructions based on seismic stratigraphic reconstructions.  相似文献   

Segmentation and kinematics of the North America‐Caribbean plate boundary offshore Hispaniola          下载免费PDF全文

Sylvie Leroy  Nadine Ellouz‐Zimmermann  Jordane Corbeau  Frédérique Rolandone  Bernard Mercier de Lépinay  Bertrand Meyer  Roberte Momplaisir  José‐Luis Granja Bruña  Anne Battani  Céline Baurion  Evgueni Burov  Valérie Clouard  Rémy Deschamps  Christian Gorini  Youri Hamon  Manfred Lafosse  Jottin Leonel  Laetitia Le Pourhiet  Pilar Llanes Estrada  Nicolas Loget  Francis Lucazeau  Daniel Pillot  Jeffrey Poort  Kevin R. Tankoo  José‐Luis Cuevas  José‐Fernando Alcaide  Claude Jean Poix  Alfonso Muñoz‐Martin  Serge Mitton  Yamil Rodriguez  Julien Schmitz  Leonardo Seeber  Andres Carbo‐Gorosabel  Santiago Muñoz 《地学学报》2015,27(6):467-478

We explored the submarine portions of the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden Fault zone (EPGFZ) and the Septentrional–Oriente Fault zone (SOFZ) along the Northern Caribbean plate boundary using high‐resolution multibeam echo‐sounding and shallow seismic reflection. The bathymetric data shed light on poorly documented or previously unknown submarine fault zones running over 200 km between Haiti and Jamaica (EPGFZ) and 300 km between the Dominican Republic and Cuba (SOFZ). The primary plate‐boundary structures are a series of strike‐slip fault segments associated with pressure ridges, restraining bends, step overs and dogleg offsets indicating very active tectonics. Several distinct segments 50–100 km long cut across pre‐existing structures inherited from former tectonic regimes or bypass recent morphologies formed under the current strike‐slip regime. Along the most recent trace of the SOFZ, we measured a strike‐slip offset of 16.5 km, which indicates steady activity for the past ~1.8 Ma if its current GPS‐derived motion of 9.8 ± 2 mm a^?1 has remained stable during the entire Quaternary.  相似文献   

Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones     

Daniel B. Wright  Thomas R. Knutson  James A. Smith 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(11-12):3365-3379

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Hammond Hill Research Catchment: Supporting hydrologic investigations of rooting zone and vegetation water dynamics under climate change     

James Knighton  Kanishka Singh  Valessa Souter-Kline  M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2020,34(24):4755-4758

The Hammond Hill Research Catchment (HH) is a small (120 ha), temperate, second order tributary to Six Mile Creek, Cayuga Lake, and the Great Lakes (42.42°, −76.32°). The HH has been monitored since January 2017 for the purpose of understanding how recent infiltration mixes with antecedent soil water on hillslope forest floors and the spatial and temporal patterns of Root Water Uptake (RWU) by temperate northeastern US tree species (eastern hemlock [Tsuga canadensis], American beech [Fagus grandifolia], and sugar maple [Acer saccharum]). These data are informing us about the hydrologic consequences of anticipated tree species composition change and supporting the development of more refined ecohydrological models. The glaciated catchment is underlain by a shallow confining siltstone layer (1–1.5 m depth) and densely covered with an approximately 60 year old regrowth mixed species forest of hemlock, beech, and other deciduous tree species common to the northeastern US. Current datasets from the HH include precipitation snow water equivalent, discharge, and associated isotopic water compositions, δ²H & δ¹⁸O. Measurements of (top 10 cm) soil water content, as well as bulk soil water and hemlock and beech xylem isotopic compositions are made at several locations across a topographic wetness gradient. The near-term role of the HH is to support an understanding of the environmental and ecological drivers of plant RWU competition. All data from the HH are publicly available.  相似文献