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Kumar Naresh Jaswal A. K. Mohapatra M. Kore P. A. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1227-1239
Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969–2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (−0.93, −0.47, and −0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter.
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India Meteorological Department has the responsibility of monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) including tropical cyclone (TC) and depression, collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to CDs and preparation of best track data over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). The process of post-season analysis of CDs to determine the best estimate of a CD??s position and intensity along with other characteristics during its lifetime is described as ??best tracking??. The best tracking procedure has undergone several changes world-over including NIO due to change in definition and classification of TCs, monitoring and analysis tools and procedure and physical understanding of TCs. There have been a few attempts to document the temporal changes in the best track procedure including changes in observational network, monitoring technique, area of responsibility for monitoring, terminology and classification of the TCs over the NIO. Hence, a study has been undertaken to review the temporal variations in all the above aspects of best tracking procedure and its impact on quality of best track parameters over the NIO. The problems and prospective with the best track data over the (NIO) have been presented and discussed. Based on quality and availability, the whole period of best track information may be broadly classified into four phases, viz. (i) pre-1877, (ii) 1877?C1890, (iii) 1891?C1960 and (iv) 1961?C2010. The period of 1961?C2010 may be further classified into (a) 1961?C1973, (b) 1974?C1990 and (c) 1991?C2010. As optimum observational network including satellite leading to better estimation of location and intensity without missing of CDs was available since 1961, the climatology of genesis, location, intensity, movement (track) and landfall can be best represented based on the data set of 1961?C2010. The best track parameters need to be reanalysed since 1891, based on the present criteria/classification of CDs to develop a digital data set of every six hourly position, intensity and other characteristics throughout the life period of each recorded CD over the NIO to meet the world standard. At least attempt should be made from 1974 when all types of major data including satellite, radar, surface and upper air observations are available for best track analysis. The reanalysis of best track parameters can help in better understanding and prediction of CDs and address the issues related to climate change aspects over the NIO region. 相似文献
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Krishna K. Osuri U. C. Mohanty A. Routray Makarand A. Kulkarni M. Mohapatra 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(3):1337-1359
The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13?hPa in CSLP and 11?m?s?1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125?mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155?km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66?km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24?h (116?km error) and 72?h (166?km) but superior in 48-h (119?km) track forecast. 相似文献
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Enriched finite element procedures for analyzing decoupled bolts installed in rock mass 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Numerical procedures are developed to analyze interaction between fully grouted bolts and rock mass using ‘enriched finite element method (EFEM)’. A solid element intersected by a rock bolt along any arbitrary direction is termed as ‘enriched’ element. The nodes of an enriched element have additional degrees of freedom for determining displacements, stresses developed in the bolt rod. The stiffness of the enriched element is formulated based on properties of rock mass, bolt rod and grout, orientation of the bolt and borehole diameter. Decoupling at grout–bolt interface and elasto‐plastic behavior of rock mass have also been incorporated into the EFEM procedures. The results of this method are compared with analytical pull‐out test results presented by Li and Stillborg (Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 1999; 36 :1013–1029). In addition, a numerical example of a bolted tunnel is provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method for practical applications. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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B. K. Mohapatra P. P. Singh P. Mishra K. Mahant 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(8):1139-1152
Detrital iron deposits (DID) are located adjacent to the Precambrian bedded iron deposit (BID) of Joda near the eastern limb of the horseshoe-shaped synclinorium, in the Bonai–Keonjhar belt of Orissa. The detrital ores overlie the Dhanjori Group sandstone as two isolated orebodies (Chamakpur and Inganjharan) near the eastern and western banks of the Baitarani River, respectively. The DID occur as pebble/cobble conglomerates containing iron-rich clasts cemented by goethite. Mineralogy, chemistry and lamination of these clasts are similar to that found in the nearby BID ores. Enrichment of trace and rare-earth elements in the DID relative to the BID is attributed to their concentration during the precipitation of cementing material. The detrital iron orebodies formed when Proterozoic weathering processes eroded pre-existing BID outcrops located on the Joda Ranges, and the resulting detritus accumulated in the paleochannels. In situ dissolution in association with abundant organic material produced Fe-saturated groundwater, which re-precipitated as goethite within the aggraded channel to cement the detritals. Growth of microplaty hematite in the goethite matrix suggests some level of subsequent burial metamorphism. 相似文献
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A three-dimensional kinematic limit analysis approach based on the radial point interpolation method (RPIM) has been used to compute collapse loads for rectangular foundations. The analysis is based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion and the associated flow rule. It is understood that the internal plastic power dissipation function and flow rule constraints can be expressed entirely in terms of plastic strain rates without involving stresses. The optimization problem has been solved on basis of the semidefinite programming (SDP) by using highly efficient primal-dual interior point solver MOSEK in MATLAB. The results have been presented in terms of the variation of the shape factors with changes in the aspect ratio (L/B) of the footing for different values of soil internal friction angle (ϕ). Computations have revealed that the shape factors, sc and sq, due to effects of cohesion and surcharge increase continuously with (1) decrease in L/B and (2) increase in ϕ. On the other hand, the shape factor sγ, due to the effect of soil unit weight, increases very marginally with an increase in L/B up to (1) ϕ = 25° for a rough footing and (2) ϕ = 35° for a smooth footing. Thereafter, for greater values of ϕ, the variation of sγ with L/B has been found to be quite similar to that of the factors sc and sq. The variations of (1) nodal velocity patterns, (2) plastic power dissipation, and (3) maximum plastic shear strain rates have also been examined to interpret the associated failure mechanism. 相似文献
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We perform a realistic evaluation of the potential of IceCube, a kilometer-scale neutrino detector under construction at the South Pole, to detect neutrinos in the direction of the potential accelerators of the Galactic cosmic rays. We take fully account of the fact that the measurement of the energy of the secondary muons at the detector can be used to further discriminate between the signal and the background of atmospheric neutrinos. A PeVatron is defined as the accelerator of cosmic rays with energies of several PeV, the knee in the spectrum; it has a hard energy spectrum and produces secondary photons of hundreds of GeV on the interstellar medium. Assuming that the Milagro sources are PeVatrons, an IceCube analysis combining the information from the different sources can reveal them as such at the 3σ level in one year and at the 5σ level in three years. We discuss the dependence of these expectations on the considerable ambiguities associated with the source spectra. 相似文献