A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dynamic response of a pile considering the interaction of pile variable cross section with the surrounding layered soil          下载免费PDF全文

Liu Gao  Kuihua Wang  Si Xiao  Wenbing Wu 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(9):1196-1214

Assuming that the pile variable cross section interacts with the surrounding soil in the same way as the pile toe does with the bearing stratus, the interaction of pile variable cross section with the surrounding soil is represented by a Voigt model, which consists of a spring and a damper connected in parallel, and the spring constant and damper coefficient are derived. Thus, a more rigid pile–soil interaction model is proposed. The surrounding soil layers are modeled as axisymmetric continuum in which its vertical displacements are taken into account and the pile is assumed to be a Rayleigh–Love rod with material damping. Allowing for soil properties and pile defects, the pile–soil system is divided into several layers. By means of Laplace transform, the governing equations of soil layers are solved in frequency domain, and a new relationship linking the impedance functions at the variable‐section interface between the adjacent pile segments is derived using a Heaviside step function, which is called amended impedance function transfer method. On this basis, the impedance function at pile top is derived by amended impedance function transfer method proposed in this paper. Then, the velocity response at pile top can be obtained by means of inverse Fourier transform and convolution theorem. The effects of pile–soil system parameters are studied, and some conclusions are proposed. Then, an engineering example is given to confirm the rationality of the solution proposed in this paper. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Torsional dynamic response of a large‐diameter pipe pile in viscoelastic saturated soil     

Changjie Zheng  Hanlong Liu  Xuanming Ding  Yaru Lv 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(16):1724-1743

An analytical solution is developed in this paper to investigate the dynamic response of a large‐diameter end‐bearing pipe pile subjected to torsional loading in viscoelastic saturated soil. The wave propagation in saturated soil and pile are simulated by Biot's two‐phased linear theory and one‐dimensional elastic theory, respectively. The dynamic equilibrium equations of the outer soil, inner soil, and pile are established. The solutions for the outer and inner soils in frequency domain are obtained by Laplace transform technique and the separation of variables method. Then, the dynamic response of the pile is obtained on the basis of the perfect contacts between the pile and the outer soil as well as the inner soil. The results in this paper are compared with that of a solid pile in elastic saturated soil to verify the validity of the solution. Furthermore, the solution in this paper is compared with the classic plane strain solution to verify the solution further and check the accuracy of the plane strain solution. Numerical results are presented to analyze the vibration characteristics and illustrate the effect of the soil parameters and the geometry size of the pile on the complex impedance and velocity admittance of the pile head. Finally, the displacement of the soil at different depth and frequency is analyzed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The genetic diversity,individual relatedness and possible mating system of an isolated population of the Cyprinid species Megalobrama pellgrini in upper reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River,China     

Wang  Huanshan  Wang  Teng  Li  Wenjing  Liu  Huanzhang 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2019,37(3):1042-1050

Megalobrama pellegrini is a cyprinid fish endemic to upper reaches of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River, China, which is also an important economic species in the local area. In recent years,resources of this species have decreased sharply and its conservation has drawn great attention. In the present study, we collected 120 individuals from the Longxi River, a tributary isolated from the main channel of the Changjiang River, where M. pellegrini is still relatively abundant. Using two different molecular markers, mitochondrial cytochrome b(cyt b) gene, and nuclear microsatellite(simple sequence repeat,SSR), we analyzed the genetic diversity of this isolated population. The results show that sequence genetic diversity was low(H_d:0.290 and P_i: 0.000 77 for cyt b gene),while the SSR genetic diversity was high(H_o:0.824 4±0.147 2,H_e: 0.823 510.145 1). Analysis indicated that this population had experienced a bottleneck,with inbreeding and small effective population size(around 50). Based on SSR data, relatedness analyzing revealed that the 120 samples were grouped into 10 completely independent clusters. It was inferred that the mating system of M. pellegrini was polygamy. We suggested that the low genetic diversity could be induced by the overfishing and inbreeding depression. Therefore, we suggested that the urgent conservation measures should be taken to control the overfishing and give better conditions for the fish to grow and spawn, then to restore population size.  相似文献   

Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales          下载免费PDF全文

Xixi Wang  Xiaomin Yang  Tingxi Liu  Fengling Li  Ruizhong Gao  Limin Duan  Yanyun Luo 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5547-5560

The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Composition and flux of suspended organic matter in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze River) — impact of the Three Gorges Dam and the role of tributaries and channel erosion          下载免费PDF全文

Hongyan Bao  Ying Wu  Jing Zhang  Bing Deng  Qing He 《水文研究》2014,28(3):1137-1147

To investigate the sources of particulate organic matter (POM) and the impact of Three Gorges Dam (TGD), two large lakes and erosion processes on determining the composition and flux of POM in low water discharge periods along the middle and lower Changjiang, suspended particulate samples were collected along the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze River) in January 2008. Organic geochemistry of bulk sediment (particulate organic carbon, organic carbon to nitrogen molar ratio (C/N), stable carbon isotope (δ¹³C) and grain size) and biomarker of bulk sediment (lignin phenols) were measured to trace the sources of POM. The range of C/N ratios (6.4–8.9), δ¹³C (?24.3‰ – ?26.2‰) and lignin phenols concentration Λ8 (0.45 mg/100 mg OC‐2.00 mg/100 mg OC) of POM suggested that POM originated from the mixture of soil, plant tissue and autochthonous organic matter (OM) during the dry season. POM from lakes contained a higher portion of terrestrial OM than the mainstream, which was related to sand mining and hydropower erosion processes. A three end‐member model based on δ¹³C and Λ8 was performed. The results indicated that soil contributed approximately 50% of OM to the POM, which is the dominant OM source in most stations. POM composition was affected by total suspended matter (TSM) and grain size composition, and the direct OM input from two lakes and channel erosion induced OM. The lower TSM concentration in January 2008 was mainly caused by seasonal variations; the impact from the TGD in the dry season was relatively small. A box model indicated that more than 90% of the terrestrial OM transported by the Changjiang in January 2008 was from the middle and lower drainage basins. Channel erosion induced OM, and contributions from Poyang Lake were the major terrestrial OM sources in the dry season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

不同气候模态下西北太平洋秋刀鱼资源丰度预测模型建立   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘祝楠  陈新军 《海洋学报》2018,40(6):74-82

秋刀鱼（Cololabis saira）资源对海洋环境因素极为敏感，不同气候模态可能对秋刀鱼资源丰度产生不同的影响。根据1990-2014年西北太平洋日本的秋刀鱼渔业中单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE，以此作为资源丰度），以及相应产卵场、索饵场的海表温（SST）遥感数据，探讨太平洋年际震荡（PDO）指数冷、暖年下，秋刀鱼资源丰度CPUE变化与产卵场、索饵场SST的关系，并分别建立资源丰度的预测模型。研究表明，PDO冷年索饵场4月SST与年CPUE显著相关（P<0.05），PDO暖年索饵场11月的SST与年标准化CPUE显著相关（P<0.05）。PDO冷、暖年的秋刀鱼资源丰度的预测模型中，CPUE均与索饵场11月的SST、索饵场4月SST呈现正相关的关系，统计学上为显著相关（P<0.05）。PDO冷年（2012年）和PDO暖年（2014年）的CPUE预测值与实际值相对误差分别为14.03%、-16.26%，具有较好的拟合效果。研究认为，不同气候模态下，可用于秋刀鱼资源丰度预测的环境因子不同，上述建立资源丰度模型可用于业务化运行。  相似文献   

Global Statistical Assessment and Cross-Calibration with Jason-2 for Reprocessed HY-2 A Altimeter Data     

Maofei Jiang  Ke Xu  Yalong Liu 《Marine Geodesy》2018,41(3):289-312

HY-2 A (Haiyang-2 A) satellite was launched on August 16, 2011 and radar altimeter is one of its main payloads. We reprocessed two years of HY-2 A altimeter sensor geophysical dataset records (SGDR) data. This paper presents the main results in terms of reprocessed HY-2 A altimeter data quality: verification of data availability and validity, monitoring several relevant altimeter parameters, and assessment of the HY-2 A altimeter system performances. A cross-calibration analysis of reprocessed HY-2 A altimeter data with Jason-2 was conducted. The reprocessed HY-2 A altimeter data show good quality and have a low level of noise with respect to Jason-2. The same geophysical correction methods were used to calculate the sea surface height (SSH) for the two missions. The mean standard deviations of the crossover differences for HY-2 A and Jason-2 are 5.24 cm and 5.34 cm, respectively. The mean standard deviation of the crossover differences between HY-2 A and Jason-2 is 5.37 cm. These show that HY-2 A can provide SSH measurements at almost the same level of accuracy as Jason-2. The relative SSH bias between HY-2 A and Jason-2 due to the Ultra Stable Oscillator (USO) drift is obviously observed, and it can affect the calculation of mean sea level and should be further studied and corrected.  相似文献   

Local Oceanic Vertical Deflection Determination with Gravity Data Along a Profile     

Jianbo Wang  Xin Liu  Yi Shen  Qiaoli Kong 《Marine Geodesy》2018,41(1):24-43

Deflections of the vertical (DOVs) over oceans cannot be directly measured, which restricts their applications. A local covariance function of anomalous potential is put forward in this paper in conjunction with the least-squares collocation (LSC) method to compute the oceanic DOVs utilization of oceanic gravity data along a profile. The covariance functions of gravity field quantities have been derived directly as functions of x, y and z without the need to introduce coordinate transformations corresponding to along- or cross-profile components. In the proposed methodology, gravity data along a profile were used to calculate the residual gravity anomaly using the remove-compute-restore technique. The residual gravity anomaly was used to calculate the parameters of the proposed covariance function of the local anomalous gravity field, which was used in the LSC to compute the residual DOVs along the profile. The residual DOVs added model DOVs to recover the DOVs along the profile. The results of a simulation experiment prove that the proposed methodology is feasible and effective.  相似文献