Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

Jeffrey T. Payne  Andrew W. Wood  Alan F. Hamlet  Richard N. Palmer  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):233-256

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.  相似文献   

1998 Eruption at Volcán Cerro Azul, Galápagos Islands: I. Syn-Eruptive Petrogenesis     

Rachel Teasdale  Dennis Geist  Mark Kurz  Karen Harpp 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2005,67(2):170-185

The 1998 eruption of Volcán Cerro Azul in the Galápagos Islands produced two intra-caldera vents and a flank vent that erupted more than 1.0×10⁸ m³ of lava. Lava compositions changed notably during the 5-week eruption, and contemporaneous eruptions in the caldera and on the flank produced different compositions. Lavas erupted from the flank vent range from 6.3 to 14.1% MgO, nearly the entire range of MgO contents previously reported from the volcano. On-site monitoring of eruptive activity is linked with petrogenetic processes such that geochemical variations are evaluated in a temporal context. Lavas from the 1998 eruption record two petrogenetic stages characterized by progressively more mafic lavas as the eruption proceeded. Crystal compositions, whole rock major and trace element compositions, and isotope ratios indicate that early lavas are the product of mixing between 1998 magma and remnant magma of the 1979 eruption. Intra-caldera lavas and later lavas have no 1979 signature, but were produced by the 1998 magma incorporating olivine and clinopyroxene xenocrysts. Thus, early magma petrogenesis is characterized by mixing with the 1979 magma, followed by the magma progressively entraining wehrlite cumulate mush.Editorial Responsibility: M.R. Carroll  相似文献   

Metal enrichment and contamination in a karst cave associated with anthropogenic activities in the Witwatersrand Basin,South Africa     

Gerhard du Preez  Victor Wepener  Ingrid Dennis 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(8):653

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Balance of Catchment and Offshore Nutrient Loading and Biogeochemical Response in Four New Zealand Coastal Systems: Implications for Resource Management     

John R. Zeldis  Dennis P. Swaney 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(8):2240-2259

Nutrient mass balance analyses are a way of obtaining ‘whole system’ viewpoints on coastal biogeochemical functions and their forcing. Seasonal mass balances are presented for four large bay systems in New Zealand (NZ), with the aim of showing how they can inform coastal management. Freshwater volumes, and surface and groundwater, wastewater and atmospheric inorganic and organic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) were balanced with levels of salinity, N and P from ocean surveys, used to determine non-conservative N and P fluxes and, via stoichiometry, carbon (C) fluxes. For Golden and Tasman Bays and Hauraki Gulf, exchange with adjacent shelf waters usually dominated total N supply (80–85%). In contrast, for the Firth of Thames, 51% of total N and 85% of dissolved inorganic N supply originated from its agricultural catchment. Net ecosystem metabolism (NEM; balance of autotrophy and heterotrophy) of Golden and Tasman Bays and Hauraki Gulf was usually nearly balanced. In contrast, Firth NEM was highly seasonally variable, often exhibiting strong heterotrophy coincident with expression of respiration-related stressors (low O₂ and high DIC/low pH). Denitrification accounted for about 51% of total N export across the four systems, signifying its importance as a eutrophication-regulating ecosystem service. Budgets made 12 years apart in the Firth showed decreased denitrification efficiency, coincident with large increases in system N and phytoplankton. The findings for land-ocean nutrient balance, NEM and denitrification showed how mass balance budgeting can inform coastal management, including inventories of nutrient inputs, balances of oceanic and terrestrial nutrient loading, and potential for risk associated with biogeochemical responses.  相似文献   

A comparison of frameworks for separating the impacts of human activities and climate change on river flow in existing records and different near-future scenarios     

Soghra Andaryani  Vahid Nourani  James Ball  Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl  Hamidreza Keshtkar  Dennis Trolle 《水文研究》2021,35(7):e14301

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Megacryst-bulk rock isotopic disequilibrium as an indicator of contamination processes: The Edgecumbe Volcanic Field,SE Alaska     

Dennis J. Geist  James D. Myers  Carol D. Frost 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1988,99(1):105-112

Sr and Nd isotopic ratios are reported from mineral separates and bulk rock samples from the Edgecumbe Volcanic Field in southeast Alaska, a suite of lavas that has developed by assimilation. Megacrysts in the basaltic unit and the rhyodacites are in isotopic equilibrium with their matrices. Because the rhyodacites developed as the result of assimilation, the assimilate must have been completely dissolved. In contrast, megacrysts in the two andesitic units are in isotopic disequilibrium with their matrix. These megacrysts must be a mixture of those inherited from the contaminant, crystals in equilibrium with the groundmass, and possibly crystals inherited from a mafic liquid.  相似文献   

Turbulence in an almond orchard: Spatial variations in spectra and coherence     

Dennis D. Baldocchi  Boyd A. Hutchison 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1988,42(4):293-311

The spatial variability of turbulence in a fully-leafed almond orchard was studied. Two three-dimensional sonic anemometers were used to measure turbulence spectra and coherence at different vertical and lateral separations inside the canopy. Peak frequencies of the horizontal velocity components, normalized by local horizontal wind speed, are greater in the canopy crown than in the trunkspace. Peak-normalized frequencies for the vertical velocity power spectra are similar in the canopy crown and in the subcanopy trunkspace. Spectral slopes in the inertial subrange are more negative than those predicted with Kolmogorov's -2/3 theory. It is thought that the foliage elements act to short-circuit the eddy cascade. Lateral separation of the instruments in the subcanopy trunkspace has little effect on the shape of the velocity spectra. On the other hand, lateral and vertical velocity coherences between spatially separated sensors are low inside the canopy. These low coherences are due to the Eulerian length scales being of the same order of magnitude as the separation distances of the anemometers. Phase angles between velocity components are about zero for small separation distances. When the two instruments are separated by 9 m and one instrument is positioned in a row while the other is between two rows, vertical velocities are about 180 deg out of phase and the streamwise velocities are about 40 to 60 deg out of phase. These data support the contention that preferred differences occur between within- and between-row wind flow regimes.  相似文献   

Comparison Between Pump and Treat, Biorestoration, and Biorestoration/ Pump and Treat Combined: Lessons from Computer Modeling     

Samuel A. Marquis Jr.  Dennis Dineen 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1994,14(2):105-119

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Geochronology and sedimentology of the lower Passaic River,New Jersey     

Steven L. Huntley  Richard J. Wenning  Steave H. Su  Nancy L. Bonnevie  Dennis J. Paustenbach 《Estuaries and Coasts》1995,18(2):351-361

In an attempt to characterize localized rates of sediment accretion, 10 sediment cores were collected from the lower reach of the Passaic River, a major tributary of Newark Bay, New Jersey. Sediments were assayed for ²¹⁰Pb activity at predetermined depths and the rate of sediment accretion (cm yr^?1) was estimated from the least squares regression of the log of unsupported activity versus depth. Sediment accretion rates, derived from ²¹⁰Pb measurements (R_Pb) were used to predict the depth interval within the core containing sediments deposited around 1954; subsequent ¹³⁷Cs analyses were focused on this depth interval. Sediment accretion rates derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements (R_Cs) were extrapolated from the depth of the 1954 horizon. Lead-210 derived sediment accretion rates in cores collected from a sediment bench extending along the inside bend on the southern shore of a meander in the river, ranged from 4.1 cm yr^?1 to 10.2 cm yr^?1 and averaged 6.8 cm yr^?1. The R_Cs estimates for cores from this area ranged from 3.8 cm yr^?1 to 8.9 cm yr^?1 and averaged 6.6 cm yr^?1. The R_Cs for cores collected in a more hydrologically dynamic reach of the river upstream of the sediment bench, were only 0.41 cm yr^?1 and 0.66 cm yr^?1. The results of this investigation indicate that this reach of the lower Passaic River is an area of high sediment accumulation, retaining much of the sediment load deposited from upstream and downstream sources. The rates of sediment accretion in the lower Passaic River are among the highest reported anywhere in the Newark Bay estuary.  相似文献   

Ultra-wideband radar studies of steep crested waves with scanning laser measurements of wave slope profiles     

Dennis B. Trizna  James P. Hansen  Paul Hwang  Jin Wu 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1993,20(1-2)

We report results of ultra wide-band radar sea spike experiments using steep and weakly breaking non-linear water surface features in a wave tank. To generate these features we used a 1 s paddle wave and wind waves for a sequence of wind speeds. A scanning laser was used to measure synchronously the surface slope profile across 12 cm along the wave propagation direction once per radar pulse. A time domain reflectometer (TDR) radar transmitted short horizontally polarized pulses at X-band, several hundred picoseconds long, to give a range resolution of 10 cm. A radar range of 36 cm was digitally sampled so that surface feature echoes could be tracked through the area continuously with 5 ms temporal resolution with each instrument. We report results considering the wave slope component in the propagation direction and the corresponding curvature component. For the conditions studied, two types of features which produce sea spike radar echoes were generated–a non-linear feature near the crest front of the wind wave, caused by extreme steepening as a result of the passage of the paddle wave, and a steepened blocked wind wave in the trough of the paddle wave, caused by the local orbital current of the 1 s wave being nearly equal to and opposite the phase velocity of the wind wave.  相似文献