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Reconstructions of the timing and frequency of past eruptions are important to assess the propensity for future volcanic activity, yet in volcanic areas such as the East African Rift only piecemeal eruption histories exist. Understanding the volcanic history of scoria-cone fields, where eruptions are often infrequent and deposits strongly weathered, is particularly challenging. Here we reconstruct a history of volcanism from scoria cones situated along the eastern shoulders of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift, using a sequence of tephra (volcanic ash) layers preserved in the ~250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro. Seven visible and two non-visible (crypto-) tephra layers in the Lake Chala sequence are attributed to activity from the Mt Kilimanjaro (northern Tanzania) and the Chyulu Hills (southern Kenya) volcanic fields, on the basis of their glass chemistry, textural characteristics and known eruption chronology. The Lake Chala record of eruptions from scoria cones in the Chyulu Hills volcanic field confirms geological and historical evidence of its recent activity, and provides first-order age estimates for seven previously unknown eruptions. Long and well-resolved sedimentary records such as that of Lake Chala have significant potential for resolving regional eruption chronologies spanning hundreds of thousands of years.  相似文献   
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A method that combines calibration and identifiability analysis of a dynamic water quality model to evaluate the relative importance of various processes affecting the dynamic aspects of water composition is illustrated by a study of the response of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients to a flood hydrograph in a rural catchment area in the Netherlands. Since the water quality model simulates the observed concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients reasonably well, the most important processes during the observed flood hydrograph could be determined. These were erosion, exchange between dissolved phase and bed sediments and denitrification. It is concluded that the method is very useful for identifying the most significant model parameters and processes that are essential for water quality modelling. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Using data from glacial geomorphology, tephra–soil stratigraphy and mineralogy, palynology, and radiocarbon dating, a sequence of glacial and bioclimatic stades and interstades has been identified for the last ca. 50000 yr in the Ruiz-Tolima massif, Cordillera Central, Colombia. Six Pleistocene cold stades separated by warmer interstades occurred: before 48000, between 48000 and 33000, between 28000 and 21000, from ≥16000 to ca. 14000, ca. 13000–12400, and ca. 11000–10000 yr BP. Although these radiocarbon ages are minimum-limiting ages obtained from tephra layers on top of tills, the tills are not significantly older because most are bracketed by dated tephra sets in measured stratigraphic sections. Two minor moraine stages likely reflect glacier standstill during cold intervals ca. 7400 yr BP and slightly earlier. Finally, glaciers readvanced between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. In contrast to the ice-clad volcanoes of the massif, ca. 34 km2 in area above an altitude of ca. 4800 m, the ice cover expanded to 1200 km2 during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and was still 800 km2 during Late-glacial time (LGT). Glacier reconstructions based on the moraines suggest depression of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) by ca. 1100 m during the LGM and 500–600 m during LGT relative to the modern ELA, which lies at ca. 5100 m in the Cordillera Central. Glaciers in this region apparently reached their greatest extent when the climate was cold and wet, e.g. during stades corresponding to Oxygen Isotope Stage 3; glaciers were still expanding during the LGM ca. 28000–21000 yr BP, but they shrank considerably after 21000 yr BP because of greatly reduced precipitation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
46.
Fluid‐filled granular soils experience changes in total stress because of earth and oceanic tides, earthquakes, erosion, sedimentation, and changes in atmospheric pressure. The pore volume may deform in response to the changes in stress and this may lead to changes in pore fluid pressure. The transient fluid flow can therefore be induced by the gradient in excess pressure in a fluid‐saturated porous medium. This work demonstrates the use of stochastic methodology in prediction of induced one‐dimensional field‐scale groundwater flow through a heterogeneous aquifer. A closed‐form of mean groundwater flux is developed to quantify the induced field‐scale mean behavior of groundwater flow and analyze the impacts of the spatial correlation length scale of log hydraulic conductivity and the pore compressibility. The findings provided here could be useful for the rational planning and management of groundwater resources in aquifers that contain lenses with large vertical aquifer matrix compressibility values.  相似文献   
47.
The peak floor acceleration (PFA) is a critical parameter influencing the performance of non‐structural elements in buildings. This paper develops a response spectrum analysis method based on the complete quadratic combination (CQC) rule to estimate the PFA. The method accounts for the rigid contribution of truncated higher modes and the cross‐correlations between all pairs of modes. The approximation is introduced in the time domain and then formulated in the frequency domain by CQC. Application of the method to a continuous cantilever beam idealizing a building with shear walls is presented and compared with alternative formulations. The proposed method is able to provide a consistent estimation of the PFA along the entire structure, not only where the PFA is principally influenced by the first few flexible modes but also where the PFA is mainly related to the rigid response of the structure, for example, near its base. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
48.
We report on variations in the mean position angle of the 20 millisecond pulsars being observed as part of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA) project. It is found that the observed variations are dominated by changes in the Faraday rotation occurring in the Earth??s ionosphere. Two ionospheric models are used to correct for the ionospheric contribution and it is found that one based on the International Reference Ionosphere gave the best results. Little or no significant long-term variation in interstellar RM was found with limits typically about 0.1 rad?m?2?yr?1 in absolute value. In a few cases, apparently significant RM variations over timescales of a few 100 days or more were seen. These are unlikely to be due to localised magnetised regions crossing the line of sight since the implied magnetic fields are too high. Most probably they are statistical fluctuations due to random spatial and temporal variations in the interstellar electron density and magnetic field along the line of sight.  相似文献   
49.
A fully nonstationary stochastic model for strong earthquake ground motion is developed. The model employs filtering of a discretized white‐noise process. Nonstationarity is achieved by modulating the intensity and varying the filter properties in time. The formulation has the important advantage of separating the temporal and spectral nonstationary characteristics of the process, thereby allowing flexibility and ease in modeling and parameter estimation. The model is fitted to target ground motions by matching a set of statistical characteristics, including the mean‐square intensity, the cumulative mean number of zero‐level up‐crossings and a measure of the bandwidth, all expressed as functions of time. Post‐processing by a second filter assures zero residual velocity and displacement, and improves the match to response spectral ordinates for long periods. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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