Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Timothy R. Carter 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):415-429

A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Next, it compares projected atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate characteristics for SRES and RCPs. Finally, it uses the new scenarios matrix architecture to match SRES scenarios to combinations of RCPs and SSPs, resulting in four suggestions of suitable combinations, mapping: (i) an A2 world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP3, (ii) a B2 (or A1B) world onto RCP 6.0 and SSP2, (iii) a B1 world onto RCP 4.5 and SSP1, and (iv) an A1FI world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP5. A few other variants are also explored. These mappings, though approximate, may assist analysts in reconciling earlier scenarios with the new scenario framework.  相似文献   

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alexander Popp  Steven K. Rose  Katherine Calvin  Detlef P. Van Vuuren  Jan Phillip Dietrich  Marshall Wise  Elke Stehfest  Florian Humpenöder  Page Kyle  Jasper Van Vliet  Nico Bauer  Hermann Lotze-Campen  David Klein  Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):495-509

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.  相似文献   

The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets     

Jasper van Vliet  Andries F. Hof  Angelica Mendoza Beltran  Maarten van den Berg  Sebastiaan Deetman  Michel G. J. den Elzen  Paul L. Lucas  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):559-569

While most long-term mitigation scenario studies build on a broad portfolio of mitigation technologies, there is quite some uncertainty about the availability and reduction potential of these technologies. This study explores the impacts of technology limitations on greenhouse gas emission reductions using the integrated model IMAGE. It shows that the required short-term emission reductions to achieve long-term radiative forcing targets strongly depend on assumptions on the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Limited availability of mitigation technologies which are relatively important in the long run implies that lower short-term emission levels are required. For instance, limited bio-energy availability reduces the optimal 2020 emission level by more than 4 GtCO₂eq in order to compensate the reduced availability of negative emissions from bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in the long run. On the other hand, reduced mitigation potential of options that are used in 2020 can also lead to a higher optimal level for 2020 emissions. The results also show the critical role of BECCS for achieving low radiative forcing targets in IMAGE. Without these technologies achieving these targets become much more expensive or even infeasible.  相似文献   

Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Marcel T.J. Kok  Bastien Girod  Paul L. Lucas  Bert de Vries 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):884-895

Over the last 10 years a large set of global environmental assessment studies has been published that include scenario projections. Comparison of these studies shows that there is actually a limited set of scenario families that form the basis of many scenarios used in different environmental assessments. Mapping these scenario families allow a simpler comparison across the different assessments. The fact that many assessments can be positioned within these families gives some confidence of their relevance. It is also noticeable that several recent assessments have been focusing on more focussed policy-scenarios as variant to a single baseline. This is partly a response to a different stage in the policy-making process. While there are clear advantages of both categories of scenarios (explorative scenarios and baseline/policy variants), it might be important to test the robustness of scenario outcomes of the policy-scenario approach against the different storyline scenario-families identified in this paper.  相似文献   

The IMO Virtual Meteor Observatory (VMO): Architectural Design     

Detlef Koschny  Jonathan Mc Auliffe  Geert Barentsen 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2008,102(1-4):247-252

This paper describes the progress on the Virtual Meteor Observatory (VMO), a database which is being developed at ESA/RSSD to store video meteor observations and their derived orbits. The VMO was triggered by a discussion which took place at the first Meteor Orbit Determination (MOD) workshop in Roden, The Netherlands, in September 2006. Representatives of 15 groups working on the determination of meteor orbits and working with the resulting orbits discussed the design and implementation of a database which would combine different meteor orbit datasets. From this the concept of the VMO was born, which will, in the long run, allow accessing meteor observations via the internet. In the beginning, it will focus on meteor orbit data obtained with video systems. This paper presents the architectural design of the database as it has been defined in the meantime.  相似文献   

The feasibility of low CO₂ concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)     

Christian Azar  Kristian Lindgren  Michael Obersteiner  Keywan Riahi  Detlef P. van Vuuren  K. Michel G. J. den Elzen  Kenneth M?llersten  Eric D. Larson 《Climatic change》2010,100(1):195-202

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC 1992) calls for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We use three global energy system models to investigate the technological and economic attainability of meeting CO₂ concentration targets below current levels. Our scenario studies reveal that while energy portfolios from a broad range of energy technologies are needed to attain low concentrations, negative emission technologies—e.g., biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)—significantly enhances the possibility to meet low concentration targets (at around 350 ppm CO₂).  相似文献   

Regional abatement action and costs under allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-equivalent concentrations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michel G. J. den Elzen  Paul L. Lucas  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2008,90(3):243-268

This paper assesses regional abatement action and costs for two scenarios in which atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations stabilise at 450 and 550 ppm CO₂-equivalent. It evaluates two allocation schemes: Multi-Stage and Contraction & Convergence. It was found that abatement costs as percentages of GDP vary significantly by region, with high costs for the Middle East and the former Soviet Union, medium costs for the OECD regions and low costs or even gains for (other) developing regions. In addition to the abatement costs they incur, fossil-fuel-exporting regions are also likely to be affected by losses of coal and oil exports while the former Soviet Union and South America could experience increased bio-energy exports. Especially in the former Soviet Union and Asia, non-CO₂ abatement options are important in the short term in reducing their emissions. Carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, bio-energy use and the use of renewables dominate reductions in the long term in all regions. It was found that the regional costs are influenced more by the assumed stabilisation level and baseline scenario than by the allocation regimes explored or the assumptions for different technologies.  相似文献   

Zur Gefügeregelung von Olivin-Porphyroblasten im Ultramafiti-Komplex von Åheim,Sunnmöre/Westnorwegen     

Prof. Dr. F. Rost  Dr. A. Mihm 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1973,20(4):267-279

Zusammenfassung Die Gefügeregelung von Olivin-Porphyroblasten in dunitischen Ultramafititen des Åheimer Komplexes ist durch eine bevorzugteZ-Orientierung parallel zur Lineation-entsprechend der tektonischen B-Achse-gekennzeichnet.X undY liegen mit diskreten Maxima auf einem ac-Gürtel. Die Orientierung der Porphyroblasten entspricht einem reliktisch erhaltenen, älteren Verformungsplan, dessenPT-Bedingungen aus experimentellen Ergebnissen anderer Autoren und mit genetischer Parallelisierung zur Bildung der Granatultramafitite des Gebietes erklärt werden können.Kleine, rekristallisierte Olivinkorn-Einschlüsse in den Porphyroblasten zeigen einen Trend zu einerX-Orientierung senkrecht auf s;Y rotiert dabei in die Richtung der Gesteinslineation. Diese Orientierung ist in vielen, während einer jüngeren, retrograden Metamorphose rekristallisierten Olivingesteinen beobachtbar, welche unter denPT-Bedingungen einer Chlorit-Hornblende-Peridotitfazies stattfand.

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Fabric orientation of olivine porphyroblasts in the Ultramafitite Complex of Åheim, Sunnmöre, western Norway

Summary The lattice orientation of olivine porphyroblasts in dunites of the Åheim Ultramafic Complex, western Norway, shows a principal -direction parallel to lineation in the host rock, corresponding to the tectonic B-axis. The other optical axes and form a girdle in the tectonic ac-plane with certain maximas. This orientation is caused by an earlier stress pattern. ThePT-conditions of this deformation may be explained by experimental results of other authors.Small recrystallized olivine inclusions in the blasts tend toward an -orientation perpendicular to S; rotates into the direction of lineartion. The same orientation occurs predominatly in the olivine rocks of the complex, which also have recrystallized during a younger retrograde metamorphism under the conditions of the chlorite amphibole peridotite facies.

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Mit 6 Abbildungen

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Herrn Prof. Dr. Dr. h. c.B. Sander zum 90. Geburtstag gewidmet.  相似文献   

Determination of Forty Two Major and Trace Elements in USGS and NIST SRM Glasses by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry   总被引：39，自引：0，他引：39  

Shan Gao  Xiaomin Liu  Honglin Yuan  Bodo Hattendorf  Detlef Günther  Liang Chen  Shenhong Hu 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2002,26(2):181-196

Forty two major (Na, Mg, Ti and Mn) and trace elements covering the mass range from Li to U in three USGS basalt glass reference materials BCR‐2G, BHVO‐2G and BIR‐1G were determined using laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry. Calibration was performed using NIST SRM 610 in conjunction with internal standardisation using Ca. Determinations were also made on NIST SRM 612 and 614 as well as NIST SRM 610 as unknown samples, and included forty five major (Al and Na) and trace elements. Relative standard deviation (RSD) of determinations was below 10% for most elements in all the glasses under investigation. Consistent exceptions were Sn and Sb in BCR‐2G, BHVO‐2G and BIR‐1G. For BCR‐2G, BHVO‐2G and BIR‐1G, clear negative correlations on a logarithmic scale exist between RSD and concentration for elements lower than 1500 μg g^‐1 with logarithmic correlation coefficients between ‐0.75 and ‐0.86. There is also a clear trend of increasing RSD with decreasing concentration from NIST SRM 610 through SRM 612 to SRM 614. These suggest that the difference in the scatter of apparent element concentrations is not due to chemical heterogeneity but reflects analytical uncertainty. It is concluded that all these glasses are, overall, homogeneous on a scale of 60 μm. Our first results on BHVO‐2G and BIR‐1G showed that they generally agreed with BHVO‐2/BHVO‐1 and BIR‐1 within 10% relative. Exceptions were Nb, Ta and Pb in BHVO‐2G, which were 14‐45% lower than reference values for BHVO‐2 and BHVO‐1. Be, Ni, Zn, Y, Zr, Nb, Sn, Sb, Gd, Tb, Er, Pb and U in BIR‐1G were also exceptions. However, of these elements, Be, Nb, Sn, Sb, Gd, Tb, Pb and U gave results that were consistent within an uncertainty of 2s between our data and BIR‐1 reference values. Results on NIST SRM 612 agreed well with published data, except for Mg and Sn. This was also true for elements with m/z 85 (Rb) in the case of NIST SRM 614. The good agreement between measured and reference values for Na and Mg in BCR‐2G, BHVO‐2G and BIR‐1G, and for Al and Na in NIST SRM 610, 612 and 614 up to concentrations of at least several weight percent (which were possible to analyse due to the dynamic range of 10⁸) indicates the suitability of this technique for major, minor and trace element determinations.  相似文献   

Tracing the history of submarine hydrothermal inputs and the significance of hydrothermal hafnium for the seawater budget—a combined Pb-Hf-Nd isotope approach     

Tina van de Flierdt  Martin Frank  James R Hein  Detlef Günther 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2004,222(1):259-273

Secular variations in the Pb isotopic composition of a mixed hydrogenous-hydrothermal ferromanganese crust from the Bauer Basin in the eastern Equatorial Pacific provide clear evidence for changes in hydrothermal contributions during the past 7 Myr. The nearby Galapagos Rise spreading center provided a strong hydrothermal flux prior to 6.5 Ma. After 6.5 Ma, the Pb became stepwise more radiogenic and more similar to Equatorial Pacific seawater, reflecting the westward shift of spreading to the presently active East Pacific Rise (EPR). A second, previously unrecognized enhanced hydrothermal period occurred between 4.4 and 2.9 Ma, which reflects either off-axis hydrothermal activity in the Bauer Basin or a late-stage pulse of hydrothermal Pb from the then active, but waning Galapagos Rise spreading center.Hafnium isotope time-series of the same mixed hydrogenous-hydrothermal crust show invariant values over the past 7 Myr. Hafnium isotope ratios, as well as Nd isotope ratios obtained for this crust, are identical to that of hydrogenous Equatorial Pacific deep water crusts and clearly indicate that hydrothermal Hf, similar to Nd, does not travel far from submarine vents. Therefore, we suggest that hydrothermal Hf fluxes do not contribute significantly to the global marine Hf budget.  相似文献