The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability     

Gottfried Grünthal  Dietrich Stromeyer  Christian Bosse  Fabrice Cotton  Dino Bindi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4339-4395

The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of \(v_{S30}\) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02–3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.  相似文献   

Can GPS-Derived Surface Loading Bridge a GRACE Mission Gap?     

Roelof Rietbroek  Mathias Fritsche  Christoph Dahle  Sandra-Esther Brunnabend  Madlen Behnisch  Jürgen Kusche  Frank Flechtner  Jens Schröter  Reinhard Dietrich 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(6):1267-1283

We investigated two ‘gap-filler’ methods based on GPS-derived low-degree surface loading variations (GPS-I and GPS-C) and a more simple method (REF-S) which extends a seasonal harmonic variation into the expected Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission gap. We simulated two mission gaps in a reference solution (REF), which is derived from a joint inversion of GRACE (RL05) data, GPS-derived surface loading and simulated ocean bottom pressure. The GPS-I and GPS-C methods both have a new type of constraint applied to mitigate the lack of GPS station network coverage over the ocean. To obtain the GPS-C solution, the GPS-I method is adjusted such that it fits the reference solution better in a 1.5 year overlapping period outside of the gap. As can be expected, the GPS-I and GPS-C solutions contain larger errors compared to the reference solution, which is heavily constrained by GRACE. Within the simulated gaps, the GPS-C solution generally fits the reference solution better compared to the GPS-I method, both in terms of spherical harmonic loading coefficients and in terms of selected basin-averaged hydrological mass variations. Depending on the basin, the RMS-error of the water storage variations (scaled for leakage effects) ranges between 1.6 cm (Yukon) and 15.3 cm (Orinoco). In terms of noise level, the seasonal gap-filler method (REF-S) even outperforms the GPS-I and GPS-C methods, which are still affected by spatial aliasing problems. However, it must be noted that the REF-S method cannot be used beyond the study of simple harmonic seasonal variations.  相似文献   

Relevance of Deterministic Structures for Modeling of Transport: The Lauswiesen Case Study     

Falk Händel  Peter Dietrich 《Ground water》2012,50(6):935-942

Knowledge of site‐specific contaminant transport processes is an essential requirement for performing various tasks concerning the protection and management of groundwater resources. However, prediction of their behavior is often difficult, especially in heterogeneous aquifers because of the lack of information about flow‐ and transport‐governing subsurface structures and parameters. Hence, stochastic approaches have been developed and frequently used. However, extensive modeling studies on sedimentary structures have shown that consideration of hydrogeological subunits and their distribution can be essential for transport modeling. A case study from the intensely investigated Lauswiesen site is used to demonstrate that more accurate predictions are possible with improved knowledge of deterministic structures. Results of this case study using direct‐push injection logging (DPIL) provide a more reliable characterization of hydraulic conductivity than sieve and flow meter data.  相似文献   

Carry-over effects of the membrane interface probe     

Bumberger J  Radny D  Berndsen A  Goblirsch T  Flachowsky J  Dietrich P 《Ground water》2012,50(4):578-584

The membrane interface probe (MIP) is widely used to characterize the subsurface distribution of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). One problem that arises during MIP application is that disproportionately high MIP signals are obtained after passing source zones which contain mobile or residual phases. This serious problem occurs because of a carry-over effect, in particular caused by compound-specific retention times in the conventional unheated transfer line, commonly used during such an investigation. The objective of this study was to perform a qualitative methodical field evaluation of the carry-over effect of a conventional MIP system with a conventional unheated transfer line. This was achieved by coupling a mobile mass spectrometer to the MIP device. Results obtained were then further compared with those achieved using a laser induced fluorescence (LIF) system. Because of this coupling, time- and depth-dependent signals for different substances became known. Field evaluation data obtained showed complex superpositions of compounds with MIP system results. As a result of this superposition, MIP signals from the saturated zone beneath the source zone (zone with free and/or residual phase) are blurred and are therefore not representative of particular depths. However, utilizing multidirectional probing alongside conventional MIP probing (forwards and backwards), it was possible to detect the upper and lower phase boundary of the source zone. These MIP results correlated excellently with the LIF results. An important conclusion that can be drawn from the field investigation is that coupling a mobile mass spectrometer to the MIP system enables advanced MIP signal interpretation to be successfully achieved.  相似文献   

Evaluation of vertical variations in hydraulic conductivity in unconsolidated sediments     

Dietze M  Dietrich P 《Ground water》2012,50(3):450-456

Detailed information on vertical variations in hydraulic conductivity (K) is essential to describe the dynamics of groundwater movement at contaminated sites or as input data used for modeling. K values in high vertical resolution should be determined because K tends to be more continuous in the horizontal than in the vertical direction. To determine K in shallow unconsolidated sediments and in the vertical direction, the recently developed direct-push injection logger can be used. The information obtained by this method serves as a proxy for K and has to be calibrated to obtain quantitative K values of measured vertical profiles. In this study, we performed direct-push soil sampling, sieve analyses and direct-push slug tests to obtain K values in vertical high resolution. Using the results of direct-push slug tests, quantitative K values obtained by the direct-push injection logger could be determined successfully. The results of sieve analyses provided lower accordance with the logs due to the inherent limitations of the sieving method.  相似文献   

From outwash to coastal systems in the Portneuf–Forestville deltaic complex (Québec North Shore): Anatomy of a forced regressive deglacial sequence          下载免费PDF全文

Pierre Dietrich  Jean‐François Ghienne  Mathieu Schuster  Patrick Lajeunesse  Alexis Nutz  Rémy Deschamps  Claude Roquin  Philippe Duringer 《Sedimentology》2017,64(4):1044-1078

Deglacial sequences typically include backstepping grounding zone wedges and prevailing glaciomarine depositional facies. However, in coastal domains, deglacial sequences are dominated by depositional systems ranging from turbiditic to fluvial facies. Such deglacial sequences are strongly impacted by glacio‐isostatic rebound, the rate and amplitude of which commonly outpaces those of post‐glacial eustatic sea‐level rise. This results in a sustained relative sea‐level fall covering the entire depositional time interval. This paper examines a Late Quaternary, forced regressive, deglacial sequence located on the North Shore of the St. Lawrence Estuary (Portneuf Peninsula, Québec, Canada) and aims to decipher the main controls that governed its stratigraphic architecture. The forced regressive deglacial sequence forms a thick (>100 m) and extensive (>100 km²) multiphased deltaic complex emplaced after the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet margin from the study area ca 12 500 years ago. The sedimentary succession is composed of ice‐contact, glaciomarine, turbiditic, deltaic, fluvial and coastal depositional units. A four‐stage development is recognized: (i) an early ice‐contact stage (esker, glaciomarine mud and outwash fan); (ii) an in‐valley progradational stage (fjord head or moraine‐dammed lacustrine deltas) fed by glacigenics; (iii) an open‐coast deltaic progradation, when proglacial depositional systems expanded beyond the valley outlets and merged together; and (iv) a final stage of river entrenchment and shallow marine reworking that affected the previously emplaced deltaic complex. Most of the sedimentary volume (10 to 15 km³) was emplaced during the three‐first stages over a ca 2 kyr interval. In spite of sustained high rates of relative sea‐level fall (50 to 30 mm·year^?1), delta plain accretion occurred up to the end of the proglacial open‐coast progradational stage. River entrenchment only occurred later, after a significant decrease in the relative sea‐level fall rates (<30 mm·year^?1), and was concurrent with the formation and preservation of extensive coastal deposits (raised beaches, spit platform and barrier sands). The turnaround from delta plain accretion to river entrenchment and coastal erosion is interpreted to be a consequence of the retreat of the ice margin from the river drainage basins that led to the drastic drop of sediment supply and the abrupt decrease in progradation rates. The main internal stratigraphic discontinuity within the forced regressive deglacial sequence does not reflect changes in relative sea‐level variations.  相似文献   

Rapid crustal uplift in Patagonia due to enhanced ice loss     

R. Dietrich  E.R. Ivins  G. Casassa  H. Lange  J. Wendt  M. Fritsche 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2010,289(1-2):22-29

A vertical crustal uplift rate of 39 mm yr^? 1 is measured between 2003 and 2006 using Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at the northeastern edge of the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI). This is the largest present-day glacial isostatic rate ever recorded. The combination of SPI's rapid melting and the unique regional slab-window tectonics that promotes a relatively low viscosity, is central to our interpretation of the observations. The two effects lead to a strong interaction of short relaxation times with ice loads that change on a comparable time scale. The profile of GPS observations link ice loss to the soft viscoelastic isostatic flow response over the time scale of the Little Ice Age (LIA), including ice loss in the period of observation. The agreement of the results with our model predictions strongly suggests the large crustal uplift in Patagonia is due an accelerated glacier wasting since the termination of the LIA and that the effective regional mantle viscosity is near 4.0–8.0 × 10¹⁸ Pa s. A century-long diminution of the icefields, at rates that are about 1/4 – 1/2 the contemporary loss rates, is consistent with multidecadal-scale temperature trends estimated for the past 50–100 years and is, in fact, a key feature in any model capable of explaining the uplift data.  相似文献   

Geology of the epithermal Ag–Au Huevos Verdes vein system and San José district, Deseado massif, Patagonia, Argentina     

Andreas Dietrich  Ronald Gutierrez  Eric P. Nelson  Paul W. Layer 《Mineralium Deposita》2012,47(3):233-249

The San José district is located in the northwest part of the Deseado massif and hosts a number of epithermal Ag–Au quartz veins of intermediate sulfidation style, including the Huevos Verdes vein system. Veins are hosted by andesitic rocks of the Bajo Pobre Formation and locally by rhyodacitic pyroclastic rocks of the Chon Aike Formation. New ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar constraints on the age of host rocks and mineralization define Late Jurassic ages of 151.3 ± 0.7 Ma to 144.7 ± 0.1 Ma for volcanic rocks of the Bajo Pobre Formation and of 147.6 ± 1.1 Ma for the Chon Aike Formation. Illite ages of the Huevos Verdes vein system of 140.8 ± 0.2 and 140.5 ± 0.3 Ma are 4 m.y. younger than the volcanic host rock unit. These age dates are among the youngest reported for Jurassic volcanism in the Deseado massif and correlate well with the regional context of magmatic and hydrothermal activity. The Huevos Verdes vein system has a strike length of 2,000 m, with several ore shoots along strike. The vein consists of a pre-ore stage and three main ore stages. Early barren quartz and chalcedony are followed by a mottled quartz stage of coarse saccharoidal quartz with irregular streaks and discontinuous bands of sulfide-rich material. The banded quartz–sulfide stage consists of sulfide-rich bands alternating with bands of quartz and bands of chlorite ± illite. Late-stage sulfide-rich veinlets are associated with kaolinite gangue. Ore minerals are argentite and electrum, together with pyrite, sphalerite, galena, chalcopyrite, minor bornite, covellite, and ruby silver. Wall rock alteration is characterized by narrow (< 3 m) halos of illite and illite/smectite next to veins, grading outward into propylitic alteration. Gangue minerals are dominantly massive quartz intergrown with minor to accessory adularia. Epidote, illite, illite/smectite, and, preferentially at deeper levels, Fe-chlorite gangue indicate near-neutral pH hydrothermal fluids at temperatures of >220°C. Kaolinite occurring with the late sulfide-rich veinlet stage indicates pH < 4 and a temperature of <200°C. The Huevos Verdes system has an overall strike of 325°, dipping on average 65° NE. The orientations of individual ore shoots are controlled by vein strike and intersecting north-northwest-striking faults. We propose a structural model for the time of mineralization of the San José district, consisting of a conjugate shear pair of sinistral north-northwest- and dextral west-northwest-striking faults that correspond to R and R′ in the Riedel shear model and that are related to master faults (M) of north-northeast-strike. Veins of 315° strike can be interpreted as nearly pure extensional fractures (T). Variations in vein strike predict an induced sinistral shear component for strike directions of >315°, whereas strike directions of <315° are predicted with an induced dextral strike–slip movement. The components of the structural model appear to be present on a regional scale and are not restricted to the San José district.  相似文献   

Integrated Water Resources Management under different hydrological,climatic and socio-economic conditions   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Edda Kalbus  Thomas Kalbacher  Olaf Kolditz  Elisabeth Krüger  Jörg Seegert  Gunda Röstel  Georg Teutsch  Dietrich Borchardt  Peter Krebs 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(5):1363-1366

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Feasibility of geoelectrical monitoring and multiphase modeling for process understanding of gaseous CO2 injection into a shallow aquifer     

Hendrik Lamert  H. Geistlinger  U. Werban  C. Schütze  A. Peter  G. Hornbruch  A. Schulz  M. Pohlert  S. Kalia  M. Beyer  J. Gro?mann  A. Dahmke  P. Dietrich 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,67(2):447-462

Potential pathways in the subsurface may allow upwardly migrating gaseous CO₂ from deep geological storage formations to be released into near surface aquifers. Consequently, the availability of adequate methods for monitoring potential CO₂ releases in both deep geological formations and the shallow subsurface is a prerequisite for the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage technology. Geoelectrical surveys are carried out for monitoring a small-scale and temporally limited CO₂ injection experiment in a pristine shallow aquifer system. Additionally, the feasibility of multiphase modeling was tested in order to describe both complex non-linear multiphase flow processes and the electrical behavior of partially saturated heterogeneous porous media. The suitability of geoelectrical methods for monitoring injected CO₂ and geochemically altered groundwater was proven. At the test site, geoelectrical measurements reveal significant variations in electrical conductivity in the order of 15?C30?%. However, site-specific conditions (e.g., geological settings, groundwater composition) significantly influence variations in subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently, the feasibility of geoelectrical monitoring. The monitoring results provided initial information concerning gaseous CO₂ migration and accumulation processes. Geoelectrical monitoring, in combination with multiphase modeling, was identified as a useful tool for understanding gas phase migration and mass transfer processes that occur due to CO₂ intrusions in shallow aquifer systems.  相似文献