Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Switzerland: best estimates and uncertainties     

Stefan Wiemer  Domenico Giardini  Donat Fäh  Nicholas Deichmann  Souad Sellami 《Journal of Seismology》2009,13(4):449-478

We present the results of a new genera tion of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Switzerland. This study replaces the previous intensity-based generation of national hazard maps of 1978. Based on a revised moment-magnitude earthquake catalog for Switzerland and the surrounding regions, covering the period 1300–2003, sets of recurrence parameters (a and b values, M _max ) are estimated. Information on active faulting in Switzerland is too sparse to be used as source model. We develop instead two models of areal sources. The first oriented towards capturing historical and instrumental seismicity, the second guided largely by tectonic principles and express ing the alterative view that seismicity is less stationary and thus future activity may occur in previously quiet regions. To estimate three alterna tive a and b value sets and their relative weighting, we introduce a novel approach based on the modified Akaike information criterion, which allows us to decide when the data in a zone deserves to be fitted with a zone-specific b value. From these input parameters, we simulate synthetic earthquake catalogs of one-million-year duration down to magnitude 4.0, which also reflect the difference in depth distribution between the Alpine Foreland and the Alps. Using a specific predictive spectral ground motion model for Switzerland, we estimate expected ground motions in units of the 5% damped acceleration response spectrum at frequencies of 0.5–10 Hz for all of Switzerland, referenced to rock sites with an estimated shear wave velocity of 1,500 m/s² in the upper 30 m. The highest hazard is found in the Wallis, in the Basel region, in Graubünden and along the Alpine front, with maximum spectral accelerations at 5 Hz frequency reaching 150 cm/s² for a return period of 475 years and 720 cm/s² for 10,000 years. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

Reliability of Building Inventories in Seismic Prone Regions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sibylle?SteimenEmail author  Donat?F?h  Domenico?Giardini  Martin?Bertogg  Silvio?Tschudi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2004,2(3):361-388

A study on uncertainties in building inventory and vulnerability assessment for the city of Basel, Switzerland a moderate hazard but high-risk area is presented. Emphasis is put on the special conditions and demands on the data assessment procedure in such an environment. The building information was assessed from the sidewalk using a method similar to that proposed in FEMA-154. With only three persons working for two weeks, about 10% of the citys building stock was assessed. The quality of the dataset was tested by using pre-existing reference data. These tests revealed patterns of misinterpreted structural information; important features like the floor type in URM buildings were difficult to identify.Six methods are proposed to derive building vulnerability from the collected structural information using the definitions of EMS98. The variation between the individual results was investigated in detail. A sample earthquake scenario with intensity IX in the city of Basel is used to demonstrate the influence of uncertainty in the inventory on the scenario results. The range of variation in the results is huge. Overall damage in the six scenarios differed by up to 27%. The amount of collapsed buildings in the historical part of the city comprised between 28% in the worst case and 3% in the best. There is a distinct influence of the inspectors opinion visible in the scenario results, which introduces a remarkable uncertainty. This emphasizes the importance of reliable inventory assessments and makes uncertainty analysis in earthquake scenarios indispensable – especially in areas of moderate seismicity where observational data from earthquake damage is missing.  相似文献   

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2003     

Nicolas Deichmann  Manfred Baer  Jochen Braunmiller  Cécile Cornou  Donat Fäh  Domenico Giardini  Monika Gisler  Sarah Huber  Stephan Husen  Philipp Kästli  Urs Kradolfer  Martin Mai  Silvio Maraini  Ivo Oprsal  Thomas Schler  Danijel Schorlemmer  Stefan Wiemer  Jochen Wössner  Adrian Wyss 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2004,97(3):447-458

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Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2004   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Manfred Baer  Nicolas Deichmann  Jochen Braunmiller  Stephan Husen  Donat F?h  Domenico Giardini  Philipp K?stli  Urs KRadolfer  Stefan Wiemer 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2005,98(3):407-418

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2004. During this period, 677 earthquakes and 96 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With 22 events with M_L≥2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2004 was close to the average over the last 30 years. As in previous years, most of the activity was concentrated in the Valais and in Graubünden. In addition, several moderate earthquakes occurred in the lower crust below the northern Alpine foreland. Unusual was that five earthquakes were sufficiently strong to cause ground shaking of intensity IV over large portions of the territory. Two were located in Switzerland (Liestal, M_L 3.8, and Brugg, M_L 4.0). The epicenters of the other three strong events were located outside Switzerland (Besan?on in the French Jura, M_L 4.8, Waldkirch in southern Germany, M_L 5.1, and Lago di Garda in northern Italy, M_L 5.3).  相似文献   

Temperature and precipitation responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a hierarchy of datasets with different levels of observational constraints     

Garcia-Villada  Laurence P.  Donat  Markus G.  Angélil  Oliver  Taschetto  Andréa S. 《Climate Dynamics》2020,55(9-10):2351-2376

Climate Dynamics - El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability, affecting climate conditions over large areas of the globe. There are, however, substantial...  相似文献