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961.
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963.
Kedong?An Wenke?WangEmail author Zhoufeng?Wang Yaqian?Zhao Zeyuan?Yang Li?Chen Zaiyong?Zhang Lei?Duan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):913-922
Ground soil heat flux, G 0, is a difficult-to-measure but important component of the surface energy budget. Over the past years, many methods were proposed to estimate G 0; however, the application of these methods was seldom validated and assessed under different weather conditions. In this study, three popular models (force-restore, conduction-convection, and harmonic) and one widely used method (plate calorimetric), which had well performance in publications, were investigated using field data to estimate daily G 0 on clear, cloudy, and rainy days, while the gradient calorimetric method was regarded as the reference for assessing the accuracy. The results showed that harmonic model was well reproducing the G 0 curve for clear days, but it yielded large errors on cloudy and rainy days. The force-restore model worked well only under rainfall condition, but it was poor to estimate G 0 under rain-free conditions. On the contrary, the conduction-convection model was acceptable to determine G 0 under rain-free conditions, but it generated large errors on rainfall days. More importantly, the plate calorimetric method was the best to estimate G 0 under different weather conditions compared with the three models, but the performance of this method is affected by the placement depth of the heat flux plate. As a result, the heat flux plate was recommended to be buried as close as possible to the surface under clear condition. But under cloudy and rainy conditions, the plate placed at depth of around 0.075 m yielded G 0 well. Overall, the findings of this paper provide guidelines to acquire more accurate estimation of G 0 under different weather conditions, which could improve the surface energy balance in field. 相似文献
964.
Reducing the prediction uncertainties of high-impact weather and climate events: An overview of studies at LASG 下载免费PDF全文
This paper summarizes recent progress at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences in studies on targeted observations, data assimilation, and ensemble prediction, which are three effective strategies to reduce the prediction uncertainties and improve the forecast skill of weather and climate events. Considering the limitations of traditional targeted observation approaches, LASG researchers have developed a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation-based targeted observation strategy to optimize the design of the observing network. This strategy has been employed to identify sensitive areas for targeted observations of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical cyclones, and has been demonstrated to be effective in improving the forecast skill of these events. To assimilate the targeted observations into the initial state of a numerical model, a dimension-reducedprojection- based four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) approach has been proposed and is used operationally to supply accurate initial conditions in numerical forecasts. The performance of DRP-4DVar is good, and its computational cost is much lower than the standard 4DVar approach. Besides, ensemble prediction, which is a practical approach to generate probabilistic forecasts of the future state of a particular system, can be used to reduce the prediction uncertainties of single forecasts by taking the ensemble mean of forecast members. In this field, LASG researchers have proposed an ensemble forecast method that uses nonlinear local Lyapunov vectors (NLLVs) to yield ensemble initial perturbations. Its application in simple models has shown that NLLVs are more useful than bred vectors and singular vectors in improving the skill of the ensemble forecast. Therefore, NLLVs represent a candidate for possible development as an ensemble method in operational forecasts. Despite the considerable efforts made towards developing these methods to reduce prediction uncertainties, much challenging but highly important work remains in terms of improving the methods to further increase the skill in forecasting such weather and climate events. 相似文献
965.
This paper focuses on the data assimilation methods for sea surface winds, based on the level-2B HY-2A satellite microwave scatterometer wind products. We propose a new feature thinning method, which is herein used to screen scatterometer winds while maintaining the key structure of the wind field in the process of data thinning for highresolution satellite observations. We also accomplish feeding the ambiguous wind solutions directly into the data assimilation system, thus making better use of the retrieved information while simplifying the assimilation process of the scatterometer products. A numerical simulation experiment involving Typhoon Danas shows that our method gives better results than the traditional approach. This method may be a valuable alternative for operational satellite data assimilation. 相似文献
966.
随着城镇化的快速推进,我国农村人口不断减少,土地经营模式正发生着根本性变革。以提高农业土地经营效益为目的,采用文献统计和比较分析等研究方法,通过分析西方资本主义雇佣型大农场的衰落历程及原因,提出在我国当前人均耕地面积较少、就业压力较大的情况下,实施家庭承包经营、雇佣型大农场以及家庭农场并行的土地经营模式,最终实现家庭农场主导经营模式。研究结果表明:耕者有其田的家庭农场模式可以促进更多就业,避免马尔萨斯-李嘉图危机,有利于财富的公平分配和社会稳定。 相似文献
967.
利用ArcGIS对莆田沿海地区的地形、下垫面属性和排水设施及排水运作方式进行预处理,建立台风降水、风暴潮共同影响下的莆田沿海地区内涝模型。应用雷达估算降水及自动雨量站数据计算的热带气旋"南玛都"过程面雨量,以及此次暴雨过程沿岸海区和河口的时变水位作为模型的边界条件,对莆田地区风暴潮灾害风险进行评估试验。针对2011年9月1日热带气旋"南玛都"造成的莆田沿海地区风暴潮及暴雨灾害,利用暴雨内涝模型进行评估试验研究,将模拟结果与实况灾情进行对比,结果表明模型能够较客观地反映"南玛都"过程降水和风暴潮共同作用的灾害情况。 相似文献
968.
969.
河南承接制造业转移的时空格局研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
基于2000~2009年中国大中型企业数据库数据,利用产业转移承接指数、地区专业化和多样化指数、改进的偏离份额分析等方法,从时间、空间以及行业-区位等维度对河南承接制造业产业转移的时空格局进行研究。结果表明:① 时间趋势上,河南承接国内外制造业转移规模持续增大,承接行业类型显著增多;轻工业比重高于重工业,资本密集型行业明显增加。② 空间格局上,基本呈现出以中原城市群为中心的核心-外围模式,豫北地区承接制造业转移规模逐渐降低,而黄淮地区显著增强。各地市在制造业总体、轻工业、重工业以及劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型行业的承接上,呈现出增强型、减弱型、补缺型、抵消型等不同的特征;专业化和多样化承接的组合类型城市之间也明显不同,地市间承接制造业转移的行业存在雷同,但多数转移行业受地理临近性的影响不显著。③ 行业-区位组合上,劳动密集的轻工业和资本密集的重工业的集聚效应非常明显,而技术密集型行业对区位优势的指向性很强。 相似文献
970.
生物标志化合物碳同位素地球化学研究的几个相关问题 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
生物标志化合物稳定碳同位素地球化学是80年代末期新兴的研究领域。单个生物标志化合物碳同位素组成的成因解释是该领域至关重要的问题。本文综合讨论了与此有关的生物合成过程中脂类化合物碳同位素变化、细菌生物合成过程中碳同位素分馏及其脂类化合物碳同位素组成特征,从而为我国的生物标志化合物碳同位素地球化学研究提供了新的理论依据 相似文献