Stepwise selection of functional covariates in forecasting peak levels of olive pollen     

Manuel Escabias  Mariano J. Valderrama  Ana M. Aguilera  M. Elena Santofimia  M. Carmen Aguilera-Morillo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(2):367-376

High levels of airborne olive pollen represent a problem for a large proportion of the population because of the many allergies it causes. Many attempts have been made to forecast the concentration of airborne olive pollen, using methods such as time series, linear regression, neural networks, a combination of fuzzy systems and neural networks, and functional models. This paper presents a functional logistic regression model used to study the relationship between olive pollen concentration and different climatic factors, and on this basis to predict the probability of high (and possibly extreme) levels of airborne pollen, selecting the best subset of functional climatic variables by means of a stepwise method based on the conditional likelihood ratio test.  相似文献   

Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay, New Zealand, with deep-ocean gauges     

William Power  Elena Tolkova 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(11-12):1213-1232

The response/transfer function of a coastal site to a remote open-ocean point is introduced, with the intent to directly convert open-ocean measurements into the wave time history at the site. We show that the tsunami wave at the site can be predicted as the wave is measured in the open ocean as far as 1,000+ km away from the site, with a straightforward computation which can be performed almost instantaneously. The suggested formalism is demonstrated for the purpose of tsunami forecasting in Poverty Bay, in the Gisborne region of New Zealand. Directional sensitivity of the site response due to different conditions for the excitation of the shelf and the bay’s normal modes is investigated and used to explain tsunami observations. The suggested response function formalism is validated with available records of the 2010 Chilean tsunami at Gisborne tide gauge and at the nearby deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART) station 54401. The suggested technique is also demonstrated by hindcasting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami at Monterey Bay, CA, using an offshore record of each tsunami at DART station 46411.  相似文献   

Study of Local Seismic Events in Lithuania and Adjacent Areas Using Data from the PASSEQ Experiment     

Ilma Janutyte  Elena Kozlovskaya  Gediminas Motuza 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(5):797-814

The territory of Lithuania and adjacent areas of the East European Craton have always been considered a region of low seismicity. Two recent earthquakes with magnitudes of more than 5 in the Kaliningrad District (Russian Federation) on 21 September 2004 motivated re-evaluation of the seismic hazard in Lithuania and adjacent territories. A new opportunity to study seismicity in the region is provided by the PASSEQ (Pasive Seismic Experiment) project that aimed to study the lithosphere–asthenosphere structure around the Trans-European Suture Zone. Twenty-six seismic stations of the PASSEQ temporary seismic array were installed in the territory of Lithuania. The stations recorded a number of local and regional seismic events originating from Lithuania and adjacent areas. This data can be used to answer the question of whether there exist seismically active tectonic zones in Lithuania that could be potentially hazardous for critical industrial facilities. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to find any natural tectonic seismic events in Lithuania and to obtain more general view of seismicity in the region. In order to do this, we make a manual review of the continuous data recorded by the PASSEQ seismic stations in Lithuania. From the good quality data, we select and relocate 45 local seismic events using the well-known LocSAT and VELEST location algortithms. In order to discriminate between possible natural events, underwater explosions and on-shore blasts, we analyse spatial distribution of epicenters and temporal distribution of origin times and perform both visual analysis of waveforms and spectral analysis of recordings. We show that the relocated seismic events can be grouped into five clusters (groups) according to their epicenter coordinates and origin and that several seismic events might be of tectonic origin. We also show that several events from the off-shore region in the Baltic Sea (at the coasts of the Kaliningrad District of the Russian Federation) are non-volcanic tremors, although the origin of these tremor-type events is not clear.  相似文献   

Predictive modeling of the permafrost thermal regime in Russian railroad subgrade support systems     

Sergei Kudriavtcev  Tatiana Valtsev  Alexei Kazharskyi  Elena Goncharov  Iurii Berestianyi 《寒旱区科学》2013,5(4):0404-0407

The goal of a predictive thermotechnical calculation is to model the behavior of the top permafrost boundary under current operational conditions as well as increasing average annual air temperatures that results in degradation of the permafrost layer. Numerical modeling was used to assess the efficient application of construction measures to create sustainable operation of the railroad. The numerical modeling was carried out in the programming complex FEM-models developed by geotechnical engineers of St. Petersburg, Russia under Prof. V. M. Ulitsky’s guidance. The Termoground Program as a part of the FEM-models enables the research of freezing, heaving and thawing in different design solutions. Research was carried out in space resolution for a year cycle. The performed model has shown that the designing measures accepted for permafrost protection from retreat in the subgrade support were generally effective.  相似文献   

Total mercury in terrestrial systems (air-soil-plant-water) at the mining region of San Joaquín,Queretaro, Mexico     

Sergio Martínez-Trinidad  Gilberto Hernández Silva  Juventino Martínez Reyes  Gregorio Solorio Munguía  Sara Solís Valdez  Martha Elena Ramírez Islas  Rocío García Martínez 《Geofísica Internacional》2013,52(1):43-58

Deficient management of cinnabar mining left the San Joaquín region with high concentrations of mercury in its soils (2.4 – 4164 mg kg^-1). Numerous cinnabar mines have contributed to the dispersion of mercury into agricultural (0.5 –314 mg kg^-1) and forest (0.2 – 69 mg kg^-1) soils. Sediments are a natural means of transportation for mercury, causing its spreading, especially in areas near mine entrances (0.6 – 687 mg kg^-1). The nearness of maize crops to mines favors mercury accumulation in the different plant structures, such as roots, stems, leaves, and grain (0.04 – 8.2 mg kg^-1); these being related to mercury volatilization and accumulation in soils. Mercury vapor present in the settlements could indicate a constant volatilization from lands and soils (22 – 153 ng m^-3). The mercury levels found in the soils, in maize grain, and in the air resulted greater than the standards reported by the Official Mexican Norm (NOM) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Mercury in rainwater is due mainly to the presence of suspended atmospheric particles, later deposited on the surface (1.5 – 339 μg |^-1). Mercury dissolution was found in the drinking water (10 – 170 ng |^-1), with concentrations below those established by the NOM and the WHO. The contamination existing in the San Joaquín region does not reach the levels of the world’s greatest mercury producers: Almaden (Spain) and Idrija (Slovenia). It is, however, like that found in other important second degree world producers such as Guizhou (China). The population of San Joaquín, as well as its surrounding environment, are constantly exposed to mercury contamination, thus making a long term monitoring necessary to determine its effects, especially to people.  相似文献   

Uranium-series isotopes transport in surface,vadose and ground waters at San Marcos uranium bearing basin,Chihuahua, Mexico     

Juan Carlos Burillo Montúfar  Manuel Reyes Cortés  Ignacio Alfonso Reyes Cortés  Ma. Socorro Espino Valdez  Octavio Raúl Hinojosa de la Garza  Diana Pamela Nevárez Ronquillo  Eduardo Herrera Peraza  Marusia Rentería Villalobos  María Elena Montero Cabrera 《Applied Geochemistry》2012

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Identification and isotopic studies of early Cambrian magmatism (El Carancho Igneous Complex) at the boundary between Pampia terrane and the Río de la Plata craton,La Pampa province,Argentina     

Carlos J. Chernicoff  Eduardo O. Zappettini  João O.S. Santos  Marta C. Godeas  E. Belousova  Neal J. McNaughton 《Gondwana Research》2012,21(2-3):378-393

We have identified late Early Cambrian metaigneous rocks very poorly exposed at the Estancia El Carancho, in central La Pampa province, Argentina. They comprise calc–alkaline metadiorite and metagranite, and tholeiitic metapyroxenite and metagabbro. They are jointly referred to as the El Carancho Igneous Complex, and regarded to pertain to the Pampean magmatic arc and backarc, respectively. Titanite U–Pb SHRIMP dating of the metapyroxenite yielded 528 ± 5 Ma, and zircon U–Pb SHRIMP dating of the metadiorite yielded 520 ± 1.4 Ma. Hafnium isotope determinations on the dated zircons show ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios corresponding to positive εHf values from + 7.18 to + 9.37; Hf model ages of the Cambrian zircons yielded 884 Ma. It is interpreted that the metadiorites of the Complex crystallized from an Early Neoproterozoic (Tonian) juvenile source. We argue that the inferred occurrence of juvenile Tonian magmatic rocks in the (otherwise, mostly Paleo-Mesoproterozoic) substratum of the southern Pampia terrane could indicate a zone of thinned basement possibly associated with the early stage of Rodinia's breakup. In addition, the studied segment of the Pampean magmatic arc is contaminated by also juvenile, Late Mesoproterozoic crust, as evidenced by the presence of xenocrystic cores of 1140–1194 Ma – T_DM-Hf 1720 Ma and εHf values of + 3.24 to + 4.85 – in the Cambrian zircons, hence suggesting that the studied segment of the Pampean magmatic arc was intruded into juvenile Late Mesoproterozoic magmatic arc rocks. The El Carancho Igneous Complex would be located at the tectonic boundary between the Pampia terrane and the Río de la Plata craton. This boundary stands out in the aeromagnetic data as a change in the structural orientation about a roughly N-S line located approximately at 65° W and representing the suture zone between the Pampia terrane and the Río de la Plata craton. Our geotectonic model envisages westward dipping subduction of oceanic crust beneath the Pampia terrane; the El Carancho Igneous Complex would, therefore, have been originated on the Pampia side (upper plate) of the suture. Slivers of the arc- and backarc-type rocks would have been tectonically imbricated in the suture zone during the Pampean orogeny.  相似文献   

Retrowedge-related Carboniferous units and coeval magmatism in the northwestern Neuquén province, Argentina     

Eduardo O. Zappettini  Carlos J. Chernicoff  Joao O. S. Santos  Marcelo Dalponte  Elena Belousova  Neal McNaughton 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(8):2083-2104

The studied Carboniferous units comprise metasedimentary (Guaraco Norte Formation), pyroclastic (Arroyo del Torreón Formation), and sedimentary (Huaraco Formation) rocks that crop out in the northwestern Neuquén province, Argentina. They form part of the basement of the Neuquén Basin and are mostly coeval with the Late Paleozoic accretionary prism complex of the Coastal Cordillera, south-central Chile. U–Pb SHRIMP dating of detrital zircon yielded a maximum depositional age of 374?Ma (Upper Devonian) for the Guaraco Norte Formation and 389?Ma for the Arroyo del Torreón Formation. Detrital magmatic zircon from the Guaraco Norte Formation are grouped into two main populations of Devonian and Ordovician (Famatinian) ages. In the Arroyo del Torreón Formation, zircon populations are also of Devonian and Ordovician (Famatinian), as well as of Late Neoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic ages. In both units, there is a conspicuous population of Devonian magmatic zircon grains (from 406?±?4?Ma to 369?±?5?Ma), indicative of active magmatism at that time range. The ε_Hf values of this population range between ?2.84 and ?0.7, and the TDM-(Hf) are mostly Mesoproterozoic, suggesting that the primary sources of the Devonian magmatism contained small amounts of Mesoproterozoic recycled crustal components. The chemical composition of the Guaraco Norte Formation corresponds to recycled, mature polycyclic sediment of mature continental provenance, pointing to a passive margin with minor inputs from continental margin magmatic rocks. The chemical signature of the Huaraco Formation indicates that a magmatic arc was the main provenance for sediments of this unit, which is consistent with the occurrence of tuff—mostly in the Arroyo del Torreón Formation and very scarcely in the Huaraco Formation—with a volcanic-arc signature, jointly indicating the occurrence of a Carboniferous active arc magmatism during the deposition of the two units. The Guaraco Norte Formation is interpreted to represent passive margin deposits of mostly Lower Carboniferous age (younger than 374?Ma and older than 326?Ma) that precede the onset of the accretionary prism in Chile and extend into the earliest stage of the accretion, in a retrowedge position. The Arroyo del Torreón and Huaraco formations are considered to be retrowedge basin deposits to the early frontal accretionary prism (Eastern Series) of Chile. The presence of volcanism with arc signature in the units provides evidence of a Mississippian magmatic arc that can be correlated with limited exposures of the same age in the Frontal Cordillera (Argentina). The arc would have migrated to the West (Coastal Batholith) during Pennsylvanian–Permian times (coevally with the later basal accretionary prism/Western Series). The source of a conspicuous population of Devonian detrital zircon interpreted to be of magmatic origin in the studied units is discussed in various possible geotectonic scenarios, the preferred model being a magmatic arc developed in the Chilenia block, related to a west-dipping subduction beneath Chilenia before and shortly after its collision against Cuyania/Gondwana, at around 390?Ma and not linked to the independent, Devonian–Mississippian arc, developed to the south, in Patagonia.  相似文献   

Combined Effects of Tectonic and Landslide-Generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska During the M W 9.2 1964 Earthquake     

Elena Suleimani  Dmitry J. Nicolsky  Peter J. Haeussler  Roger Hansen 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(6-7):1053-1074

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the $M_{\rm W}$ 9.2 1964 megathrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in landsliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5?min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211?million m³ (Haeussler et?al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269?C278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30?min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local landslide-generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et?al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131?C152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559?C572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides.  相似文献   

Testing potential bias in marine plankton respiration rates by dark bottle incubations in the NW Iberian shelf: incubation time and bottle volume     

Enma Elena García-Martín  Pablo SerretMaría Pérez-Lorenzo 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(5):496-506

The accurate determination of the balance between plankton production and respiration in the ocean is important for C budgets and global change predictions. Disagreements on the measurement of such a balance at different scales (from microbiological to biogeochemical) have produced a controversy over the trophic status of the ocean. This is especially striking in the oligotrophic open ocean, where plankton community O₂ consumption rates in 24 h incubations have frequently produced a net heterotrophic balance, but similar difficulties emerge in coastal systems. These results have been criticised due to the possibility that the standard 24 h in vitro incubations are biased because of the long incubation time needed and the so-called “bottle effect”.To study the influence of the incubation time and bottle volume on the measurement of plankton net metabolism, we carried out several time series experiments in the NW Iberian coastal system. Here we present measurements of plankton community respiration rates concurrently obtained through (1) standard in vitro changes in dissolved oxygen concentration after different incubation times ranging from 2 to 48 h, and with bottle volumes of 50, 125 and 570 mL, and (2) the decrease in the oxygen concentration measured every 20 s with oxygen microsensors, during 48 h. Our results refute the contention that 24 h dark 125 mL bottle incubations are systematically biased, and highlight the validity of oxygen microsensors to study the dynamics of natural marine plankton respiration.  相似文献