Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Leonard A. Smith  Emma B. Suckling  Erica L. Thompson  Trevor Maynard  Hailiang Du 《Climatic change》2015,132(1):31-45

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Pediment response to drainage basin evolution in south-central Arizona     

Phillip H. Larson  Ronald I. Dorn  R. Evan Palmer  Zack Bowles  Emma Harrison  Scott Kelley 《自然地理学》2014,35(5):369-389

The Sonoran Desert portion of the Basin and Range physiographic province contains a number of streams that now flow across once-closed basins. We explore here the research questions of if and how granitic rock pediments respond to the transition from rimming endorheic basins to bordering through-flowing streams. Granitic rock pediments of the northern Usery and eastern McDowell Mountains once graded to the closed Miocene–Pliocene Pemberton basin that occupied the present-day location of the confluence of the Salt and Verde Rivers. The process of lake overflow, which integrated these rivers, first aggraded fill terraces that, in turn, caused aggradation of a mantle of transported grus on bedrock pediments. Subsequent episodic incision of the Salt and Verde rivers lowered the base level; this led to the development of erosional features such as rolling topography of a degrading pediment mantle; exposure of the former piedmont angle and its associated zones of enhanced bedrock decay and regolith carbonate; and exposure of spheroidally weathered bedrock and emerging tors, some of which experienced 20^th century erosion. The granitic pediments of the former Pemberton Basin, which now transport grus to the Salt and Verde rivers, have actively adjusted to aggradational and degradational events associated with drainage integration and do not appear to be inherited from an ancient wet climatic interval.  相似文献   

Water Flows Toward Power: Socioecological Degradation of Lake Urmia,Iran   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Azad Henareh Khalyani  Audrey L. Mayer  Emma S. Norman 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(7):759-767

Water is an invaluable resource, and equitable access to it is a fundamental human right. Disenfranchised groups often lose access to water resources because their interests are not well represented by decision makers. Excluding these groups from resource management policy often results in myopic decisions that contribute to further ecosystem damage. We describe the ecological degradation of Lake Urmia in Iran, which has recently experienced increased salinity and declining water quantity. The lake is a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and Ramsar site, and supports unique biodiversity in the region. The lake's decline is driven by the destruction of Zagros forests and the government's water policies, which diverted water to more politically connected agricultural land users, increasing social inequity and prompting more deforestation. The most straightforward restoration solution is to discontinue the diversions and allow critical inflows to recharge Lake Urmia, preserving the lake and wetlands for migratory birds, tourists, and local communities.  相似文献   

A conceptual hydrogeological model of ophiolitic aquifers (serpentinised peridotite): The test example of Mt. Prinzera (Northern Italy)          下载免费PDF全文

Stefano Segadelli  Paolo Vescovi  Kei Ogata  Alessandro Chelli  Andrea Zanini  Tiziano Boschetti  Emma Petrella  Lorenzo Toscani  Alessandro Gargini  Fulvio Celico 《水文研究》2017,31(5):1058-1073

The main aim of this study is the experimental analysis of the hydrogeological behaviour of the Mt. Prinzera ultramafic massif in the northern Apennines, Italy. The analysed multidisciplinary database has been acquired through (a) geologic and structural survey; (b) geomorphologic survey; (c) hydrogeological monitoring; (d) physico‐chemical analyses; and (e) isotopic analyses. The ultramafic medium is made of several lithological units, tectonically overlapped. Between them, a low‐permeability, discontinuous unit has been identified. This unit behaves as an aquitard and causes a perched groundwater to temporary flow within the upper medium, close to the surface. This perched groundwater flows out along several structurally controlled depressions, and then several high‐altitude temporary springs can be observed during recharge, together with several perennial basal (i.e., low altitude) springs, caused by the compartmentalisation of the system because of high‐angle tectonic discontinuities.  相似文献   

The effect of drawdown on suspended solids and phosphorus export from Columbia Lake,Waterloo, Canada     

Mike Shantz  Elizabeth Dowsett  Emma Canham  Guillaume Tavernier  Mike Stone  Jonathan Price 《水文研究》2004,18(5):865-878

This study examines the effect of drawdown on the timing and magnitude of suspended solids and associated phosphorus export from a 12 ha reservoir located in an urbanized watershed in southern Ontario, Canada. Water level in Columbia Lake was lowered by 1·15 m over a 2‐week period in November 2001. The total phosphorus (TP) concentrations ranged from 63 to 486 µg L^?1 in Columbia Lake and 71 to 373 µg L^?1 at its outflow. All samples exceeded the Provincial Water Quality Objective of 30 µg TP L^?1. Outflow concentrations of suspended solids and TP increased significantly with decreasing lake level and were attributed to the resuspension of cohesive bottom sediments that occurred at a critical threshold lake level (0·65 m below summer level). Suspended solids at the outflow consisted of flocculated cohesive materials with a median diameter (D₅₀) of c. 5 µm. Particulate organic carbon accounted for 8·5% of the suspended solids export by mass. A total mass of 18·5 t of suspended solids and 62·6 kg TP was exported from Columbia Lake, which represents a significant pulse of sediment‐associated P to downstream environments each autumn during drawdown. The downstream impacts of this release can be minimized if the water level in Columbia Lake is lowered no more than 0·5 m below summer levels. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Amplification of primordial magnetic fields by anisotropic gravitational collapse     

Emma J. King  Peter Coles 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,365(4):1288-1294

If a magnetic field is frozen into a plasma that undergoes spherical compression, then the magnetic field B varies with the plasma density ρ according to   B ∝ρ^2/3  . In the gravitational collapse of cosmological density perturbations, however, quasi-spherical evolution is very unlikely. In anisotropic collapses the magnetic field can be a much steeper function of gas density than in the isotropic case. We investigate the distribution of amplifications in realistic gravitational collapses from Gaussian initial fluctuations using the Zel'dovich approximation. Representing our results using a relation of the form   B ∝ρ^α  , we show that the median value of α can be much larger than the value  α= 2/3  resulting from spherical collapse, even if there is no initial correlation between magnetic field and principal collapse directions. These analytic arguments go some way towards understanding the results of numerical simulations.  相似文献   

SEARCHING METHODS FOR RAPID GRID INTERPOLATION*     

Michael E. Hodgson 《The Professional geographer》1989,41(1):51-61

A widely used method for grid interpretation from a set of discrete sample points is based on the inverse distanceweighted model. This method requires the identification of k-nearest sample points for each grid point, probably the most time-consuming portion of the grid interpolation process. Three searching methods for identifying the k-nearest sample points are discussed and compared. Two of these methods were consistenty faster without sacrificing accuracy than the brute-force searching method, and one method was from one to over 90 times faster than the brute-force searching method.  相似文献   

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: V. Palynological evidence for deforestation and increased erosion     

Emma?S.?Msaky  Daniel?Livingstone  Owen?K.?DavisEmail author 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2005,34(1):73-83

Pollen spectra from seven short cores taken from deltaic sites in the central and northern parts of Lake Tanganyika provide information about vegetation changes around the lake during the last 5000 years. Pollen analysis was undertaken to understand the history and timing of catchment deforestation and its causal linkage to excess sedimentation and ecosystem change in Lake Tanganyika. The spectra are dominated by grass pollen at all levels in every core. Grass pollen percentage values range between 40 and 80%. Low values of arboreal pollen taxa (1–20%) were documented from most cores except core LT-98-2M. Core LT-98-2M represents the longest duration vegetation record of this study (close to 5000 years BP), and records the onset of increasingly arid conditions in the Late Holocene, especially after 500 A.D., with the probable replacement of forest by open grassland in the Mahale Mountains region. The pollen/spore content for other cores showed a consistent trend of a decrease in grass pollen and an increase in pteridophyte and forest indicator pollen taxa during the last few centuries, contemporaneous with other indications of increased watershed disturbance from forest clearing (especially isotopes and lake faunal change). The timing or strength of this trend is not tied to specific levels of watershed disturbance. However, increasing fern spore abundance does occur progressively later towards the south, where modern human population densities are lower. Although increasing fern spore abundance is consistent with a land-clearing hypothesis, the rising arboreal pollen percentages are seemingly counterintuitive. One possible explanation is that increasing arboreal pollen proportions reflects the recycling of abundant pollen of this type from rapidly eroding soils. Another likely explanation for this finding is that land clearing involved the replacement of miombo woodland, with its mixture of trees producing little pollen and understory grasses producing large amounts of pollen, by the present day cassava, banana, and legume agricultural systems, all of which are poor pollen producers. This shift in catchment vegetation would increase the relative contribution of Afromontane pollen transported long distances from the surrounding highland regions. This hypothesis is consistent with both the lack of correlation of palynological history with specific watershed deforestation attributes, as well as the broader historical record of human habitation in the Lake Tanganyika region. This study also highlights the need for both modern pollen transect data from the region and comparative cores from low elevation swamps or ponds (wetlands) in the region with smaller catchment areas.  相似文献   

Late Holocene changes in ultraviolet radiation penetration recorded in an East Antarctic lake     

Elie?VerleyenEmail author  Dominic?A.?Hodgson  Koen?Sabbe  Wim?Vyverman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2005,34(2):191-202

Late Holocene changes in the ultraviolet radiation (UVR) penetration in a lake in the Larsemann Hills (East Antarctica) were reconstructed using sediment core proxies based on fossil pigments (scytonemins and its derivatives) and siliceous microfossils. The influence of changes in lake depth on the UVR proxy was excluded by applying a correction, based on the non-linear relation between modern scytonemin concentrations and lake depth in a regional reference data set, and the record of past lake depths inferred using a diatom based transfer function in the sediment core. Results showed four well-defined maxima in the UVR proxy during the last 1600–1800 years, centred around 1820–1780, 1580–1490, 790–580 and 680–440 AD. Several mechanisms may account for these observed changes in UVR penetration, including past variability in cloud cover, atmospheric turbidity, ozone column depth, snow cover on the lake ice, DOM concentrations and lake-ice thickness and transparency resulting from temperature fluctuations. Although some gaps remain in our knowledge of scytonemin production in relation to the limnology of Antarctic lakes, the results highlight the importance and potential of the sediments in these highly transparent water bodies as archives of changes in past UVR receipt at the Earth’s surface.  相似文献   

Managing private and public adaptation to climate change     

Emma L. Tompkins  Hallie Eakin 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):3-11

Adaptation to climate change is already being delivered by public and private actors, yet there has been little analysis of the relationships between the providers and beneficiaries of adaptation. This paper reviews the type of actors that are supplying adaptation services and their motivations. We then focus on a specific, under-explored case of adaptation: that of privately provided adaptation public goods and services, the realization of which is contingent on the individual management of private goods and private risks. Following the work of Olson (1965) we find that the benefits of the privately provided adaptation public good do not necessarily accrue back to the (same) individuals who are the providers. The characteristics of this particular form of public good pose specific institutional challenges. In this paper we: 1) explore the characteristics and defining features of these privately provided adaptation public goods; 2) argue that this form of adaptation provisioning is increasingly recognised as a feature in climate change adaptation (and/or social transformation) problems; 3) review existing cases of effective/ineffective management of these public goods; and 4) outline the institutions that may be required to facilitate the management of these public goods for adaptation.  相似文献