Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Diffenbaugh NS  Scherer M 《Climatic change》2011,107(3-4):615-624

Given the severe impacts of extreme heat on natural and human systems, we attempt to quantify the likelihood that rising greenhouse gas concentrations will result in a new, permanent heat regime in which the coolest warm-season of the 21(st) century is hotter than the hottest warm-season of the late 20(th) century. Our analyses of global climate model experiments and observational data reveal that many areas of the globe are likely to permanently move into such a climate space over the next four decades, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. In contrast to the common perception that high-latitude areas face the most accelerated response to global warming, our results demonstrate that in fact tropical areas exhibit the most immediate and robust emergence of unprecedented heat, with many tropical areas exhibiting a 50% likelihood of permanently moving into a novel seasonal heat regime in the next two decades. We also find that global climate models are able to capture the observed intensification of seasonal hot conditions, increasing confidence in the projection of imminent, permanent emergence of unprecedented heat.  相似文献   

Co-management and the co-production of knowledge: Learning to adapt in Canada's Arctic   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Derek Armitage  Fikret BerkesAaron Dale  Erik Kocho-SchellenbergEva Patton 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):995-1004

Co-management institutional arrangements have an important role in creating conditions for social learning and adaptation in a rapidly changing Arctic environment, although how that works in practice has not been clearly articulated. This paper draws on three co-management cases from the Canadian Arctic to examine the role of knowledge co-production as an institutional trigger or mechanism to enable learning and adapting. Experience with knowledge co-production across the three cases is variable but outcomes illustrate how co-management actors are learning to learn through uncertainty and environmental change, or learning to be adaptive. Policy implications of this analysis are highlighted and include the importance of a long-term commitment to institution building, an enabling policy environment to sustain difficult social processes associated with knowledge co-production, and the value of diverse modes of communication, deliberation and social interaction.  相似文献   

Organic micropollutants in marine plastics debris from the open ocean and remote and urban beaches   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hirai H  Takada H  Ogata Y  Yamashita R  Mizukawa K  Saha M  Kwan C  Moore C  Gray H  Laursen D  Zettler ER  Farrington JW  Reddy CM  Peacock EE  Ward MW 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(8):1683-1692

To understand the spatial variation in concentrations and compositions of organic micropollutants in marine plastic debris and their sources, we analyzed plastic fragments (∼10 mm) from the open ocean and from remote and urban beaches. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), alkylphenols and bisphenol A were detected in the fragments at concentrations from 1 to 10,000 ng/g. Concentrations showed large piece-to-piece variability. Hydrophobic organic compounds such as PCBs and PAHs were sorbed from seawater to the plastic fragments. PCBs are most probably derived from legacy pollution. PAHs showed a petrogenic signature, suggesting the sorption of PAHs from oil slicks. Nonylphenol, bisphenol A, and PBDEs came mainly from additives and were detected at high concentrations in some fragments both from remote and urban beaches and the open ocean.  相似文献   

Crystal reaming during the assembly, maturation, and waning of an eleven-million-year crustal magma cycle: thermobarometry of the Aucanquilcha Volcanic Cluster   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Barry A. Walker Jr.  Erik W. Klemetti  Anita L. Grunder  John H. Dilles  Frank J. Tepley  Denise Giles 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,165(4):663-682

Phenocryst assemblages of lavas from the long-lived Aucanquilcha Volcanic Cluster (AVC) have been probed to assess pressure and temperature conditions of pre-eruptive arc magmas. Andesite to dacite lavas of the AVC erupted throughout an 11-million-year, arc magmatic cycle in the central Andes in northern Chile. Phases targeted for thermobarometry include amphibole, plagioclase, pyroxenes, and Fe–Ti oxides. Overall, crystallization is documented over 1–7.5 kbar (~25 km) of pressure and ~680–1,110 °C of temperature. Pressure estimates range from ~1 to 5 kbar for amphiboles and from ~3 to 7.5 kbar for pyroxenes. Pyroxene temperatures are tightly clustered from ~1,000–1,100 °C, Fe–Ti oxide temperatures range from ~750–1,000 °C, and amphibole temperatures range from ~780–1,050 °C. Although slightly higher, these temperatures correspond well with previously published zircon temperatures ranging from ~670–900 °C. Two different Fe–Ti oxide thermometers (Andersen and Lindsley 1985; Ghiorso and Evans 2008) are compared and agree well. We also compare amphibole and amphibole–plagioclase thermobarometers (Ridolfi et al. 2010; Holland and Blundy 1994; Anderson and Smith 1995), the solutions from which do not agree well. In samples where we employ multiple thermometers, pyroxene temperature estimates are always highest, zircon temperature estimates are lowest, and Fe–Ti oxide and amphibole temperature estimates fall in between. Maximum Fe–Ti oxide and zircon temperatures are observed during the middle stage of AVC activity (~5–3 Ma), a time associated with increased eruption rates. Amphibole temperatures during this time are relatively restricted (~850–1,000 °C). The crystal record presented here offers a time-transgressive view of an evolving, multi-tiered subvolcanic reservoir. Some crystals in AVC lavas are likely to be true phenocrysts, but the diversity of crystallization temperatures and pressures recorded by phases in individual AVC lavas suggests erupting magma extensively reams and accumulates crystals from disparate levels of the middle to upper crust.  相似文献   

Volatile loss from melt inclusions in pyroclasts of differing sizes     

Alexander S. Lloyd  Terry Plank  Philipp Ruprecht  Erik H. Hauri  William Rose 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,165(1):129-153

We have investigated the loss of H₂O from olivine-hosted melt inclusions (MIs) by designing an experiment using tephra samples that cooled at different rates owing to their different sizes: ash, lapilli, and bomb samples that were deposited on the same day (10/17/74) of the sub-Plinian eruption of Volcán de Fuego in Guatemala. Ion microprobe, laser ablation-ICPMS, and electron probe analyses show that MIs from ash and lapilli record the highest H₂O contents, up to 4.4 wt%. On the other hand, MIs from bombs indicate up to 30 % lower H₂O contents (loss of ~1 wt% H₂O) and 10 % post-entrapment crystallization of olivine. This evidence is consistent with the longer cooling time available for a bomb-sized clast, up to 10 min for a 3–4-cm radius bomb, assuming conductive cooling and the fastest H diffusivities measured in olivine (D~10^?9 to 10^?10 m²/s). On the other hand, several lines of evidence point to some water loss prior to eruption, during magma ascent and degassing in the conduit. Thus, results point to both slower post-eruptive cooling and slower magma ascent affecting MIs from bombs, leading to H₂O loss over the timescale of minutes to hours. The important implication of this study is that a significant portion of the published data on H₂O concentrations in olivine-hosted MIs may reflect unrecognized H₂O loss via diffusion. This work highlights the importance of reporting clast and MI sizes in order to assess diffusive effects and the potential benefit of using water loss as a chronometer of magma ascent.  相似文献   

Spectral Irradiance, Phytoplankton Community Composition and Primary Productivity in a Salt Marsh Estuary, North Inlet, South Carolina, USA     

Evelyn Lawrenz  Erik M. Smith  Tammi L. Richardson 《Estuaries and Coasts》2013,36(2):347-364

We investigated spatial and temporal changes in spectral irradiance, phytoplankton community composition, and primary productivity in North Inlet Estuary, South Carolina, USA. High concentrations of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were responsible for up to 84 % of the attenuation of photosynthetically available radiation (PAR). Green-yellow wavelengths were the predominant colors of light available at the two sampling sites: Clam Bank Creek and Oyster Landing. Vertical attenuation coefficients of PAR were 0.7–2.1 m^?1 with corresponding euphotic zone depths of 1.5–6.7 m. Phytoplankton biomass (as chlorophyll a [chl a]) varied seasonally with a summer maximum of 16 μg chl a l^?1 and a winter minimum of 1.4 μg chl a l^?1. The phytoplankton community consisted mainly of diatoms, prasinophytes, cryptophytes and haptophytes, with diatoms and prasinophytes accounting for up to 67 % of total chl a. Changes in phytoplankton community composition showed strongest correlations with temperature. Light-saturated chl a-specific rates of photosynthesis and daily primary productivity varied with season and ranged from 1.6 to 14 mg C (mg chl a) ^?1?h^?1 (32–803 mg C m^?3?day^?1). Calculated daily rates added up to an annual carbon fixation rate of 84 g C m^?3?year^?1. Overall, changes in phytoplankton community composition and primary productivity in North Inlet showed a strong dependence on temperature, with PAR and spectral irradiance playing a relatively minor role due to short residence times, strong tidal forcing and vertical mixing.  相似文献   

Introduction to hydromechanical well tests in fractured rock aquifers   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Schweisinger T  Svenson EJ  Murdoch LC 《Ground water》2009,47(1):69-79

This article introduces hydromechanical well tests as a viable field method for characterizing fractured rock aquifers. These tests involve measuring and analyzing small displacements along with pressure transients. Recent developments in equipment and analyses have simplified hydromechanical well tests, and this article describes initial field results and interpretations during slug and constant-rate pumping tests conducted at a site underlain by fractured biotite gneiss in South Carolina. The field data are characterized by displacements of 0.3 μm to more than 10 μm during head changes up to 10 m. Displacements are a hysteretic function of hydraulic head in the wellbore, with displacements late in a well test always exceeding those at similar wellbore pressures early in the test. Displacement measurements show that hydraulic aperture changes during well tests, and both scaling analyses and field data suggest that T changed by a few percent per meter of drawdown during slug and pumping tests at our field site. Preliminary analyses suggest that displacement data can be used to improve estimates of storativity and to reduce nonuniqueness during hydraulic well tests involving single wells.  相似文献   

A local model for analysis of pump and treat systems with vertical barrier walls     

Elizabeth Mesa  Erik I. Anderson 《Advances in water resources》2008

We present a mathematical model of local, steady groundwater flow near a vertical barrier wall. Flow features represented in the model include an impermeable arc-shaped barrier wall and multiple wells; distant boundary conditions are not included explicitly, but their effects on the local flow field are modelled by specifying a uniform flow at infinity and a constant areal recharge within a local domain. We develop an explicit closed-form solution to the boundary-value problem using the analytic element method. The solution is an extension of a harmonic solution presented by Anderson and Mesa [Anderson EI, Mesa E. The effects of vertical barrier walls on the hydraulic control of contaminated groundwater. Adv Water Resourc 2006;29(1):89–98] which does not include the effects of recharge. We demonstrate that the general solution with recharge consists of the harmonic solution superposed on a special case of the harmonic solution along with two elementary one-dimensional flow solutions. The results are used to investigate the effects of areal recharge on the capture zone envelopes of the pumping wells and on the reduction in discharge that can be achieved by including a barrier wall in a pump and treat design. We find that the benefits of including an open barrier wall in a design, measured as a reduction in the pumping rate required to contain a plume, increase for higher recharge rates. Dimensionless plots of capture zone envelopes are presented for a practical well and barrier wall configuration.  相似文献   

Wave-induced steady streaming,mass transport and net sediment transport in rough turbulent ocean bottom boundary layers   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lars Erik Holmedal  Dag Myrhaug 《Continental Shelf Research》2009

The interaction between two important mechanisms which causes streaming has been investigated by numerical simulations of the seabed boundary layer beneath both sinusoidal waves and Stokes second order waves, as well as horizontally uniform bottom boundary layers with asymmetric forcing. These two mechanisms are streaming caused by turbulence asymmetry in successive wave half-cycles (beneath asymmetric forcing), and streaming caused by the presence of a vertical wave velocity within the seabed boundary layer as earlier explained by Longuet-Higgins. The effect of wave asymmetry, wave length to water depth ratio, and bottom roughness have been investigated for realistic physical situations. The streaming induced sediment dynamics near the ocean bottom has been investigated; both the resulting suspended load and bedload are presented. Finally, the mass transport (wave-averaged Lagrangian velocity) has been studied for a range of wave conditions. The streaming velocities beneath sinusoidal waves (Longuet-Higgins streaming) is always in the direction of wave propagation, while the streaming velocities in horizontally uniform boundary layers with asymmetric forcing are always negative. Thus the effect of asymmetry in second order Stokes waves is either to reduce the streaming velocity in the direction of wave propagation, or, for long waves relative to the water depth, to induce a streaming velocity against the direction of wave propagation. It appears that the Longuet-Higgins streaming decreases as the wave length increases for a given water depth, and the effect of wave asymmetry can dominate, leading to a steady streaming against the wave propagation. Furthermore, the asymmetry of second order Stokes waves reduces the mass transport (wave-averaged Lagrangian velocity) as compared with sinusoidal waves. The boundary layer streaming leads to a wave-averaged transport of suspended sediments and bedload in the direction of wave propagation.  相似文献   

International co-operation on Rhine water quality 1945-2008: An example to follow?     

Erik Mostert 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2009,34(3):142-149

The management of the Rhine is often seen as an exemplary case of international river basin management. In the Rhine basin, countries that went to war with each other twice in the last century have managed to reach agreements on many issues and water quality has improved considerably. The improvement in water quality is often attributed to the activities of the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine and in particular to its Rhine Action Plan. In order to test this assertion, this paper describes and analyzes the development of international co-operation on the water quality of the Rhine since 1945. It concludes that water quality improvement cannot be attributed to any single factor. Instead, a whole array of interrelated factors are at play, including the European Union, other international fora such as the North Sea Ministerial Conferences, domestic legislation, the activities of environmental NGOs and waterworks, growing environmental awareness, and the changing structure of the industry in the basin. Because of the importance of contextual factors, the Rhine experiences cannot simply be applied to basins with a different context. In many cases, international river basin management may be promoted most effectively by promoting co-operation at the river basin level. In many other cases, however, it may be more effective to identify and then work on the contextual factors that (1) have the biggest leverage effect in the specific case and (2) can be influenced most effectively.  相似文献