Tsunami awareness: a comparative assessment between Japan and the USA     

Miguel Esteban  Jeremy Bricker  Ricardo San Carlos Arce  Hiroshi Takagi  NamYi Yun  Warathida Chaiyapa  Alexander Sjoegren  Tomoya Shibayama 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(3):1507-1528

Awareness about the threats posed by different types of coastal disasters has increased throughout the world, as people are exposed to the nature of these hazards through media reports on events in distant countries. This has resulted in coastal residents being aware about the destructive power of tsunamis, despite no such events having taken place in their country in recent times. Regardless of this increased awareness, it has been hypothesized that there is still need for local governments to enact adequate policies to raise the awareness of local residents, for example, by holding regular evacuation drills. The present research presents a comparative assessment of tsunami awareness in two tourist destinations in Japan and the USA, which was derived through structured questionnaire surveys of beach users in the city of Kamakura and various coastal cities in Florida. The results show how despite relatively high level of awareness tsunamis still pose a considerable risk to each of the communities, for example, due to shortcoming in evacuation knowledge and infrastructure.  相似文献   

Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator     

Esteban Fernández-Vázquez  Blanca Moreno 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2017,19(4):349-370

Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165–193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.  相似文献   

Speleothems in a north Cuban cave register sea‐level changes and Pleistocene uplift rates          下载免费PDF全文

Jo De Waele  Ilenia M. D'Angeli  Tomaso Bontognali  Paola Tuccimei  Denis Scholz  Klaus Peter Jochum  Andrea Columbu  Stefano M. Bernasconi  Joan J. Fornós  Esteban R. Grau González  Nicola Tisato 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(11):2313-2326

A flight of marine terraces along the Cuban coast records Quaternary sea‐level highstands and a general slowly uplifting trend during the Pleistocene. U/Th dating of these limestone terraces is difficult because fossil reef corals have been affected by open system conditions. Terrace ages are thus often based on geological and geomorphological observations. In contrast, the minimum age of the terraces can be constrained by dating speleothems from coastal mixing (flank margin) caves formed during past sea‐level highstands and carving the marine limestones. Speleothems in Santa Catalina Cave have ages >360 ka and show various cycles of subaerial–subaqueous corrosion and speleothem growth. This suggests that the cave was carved during the MIS 11 sea‐level highstand or earlier. Some stalagmites grew during MIS 11 through MIS 8 and were submerged twice, once at the end of MIS 11 and then during MIS 9. Phreatic overgrowths (POS) covering the speleothems suggest anchialine conditions in the cave during MIS 5e. Their altitude at 16 m above present sea level indicates a late Pleistocene uplift rate of <0.1 mm/ka, but modelling also shows uplift to have been insignificant over a long timespan during the middle Pleistocene since the cave was carved. Our study shows that some flank margin caves in the region of Matanzas are older than commonly believed (i.e. MIS 11 rather than MIS 5). These caves not only can be preserved but are good markers of interglacial sea‐level highstands, more reliable than marine abrasion surfaces. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical modeling of cracking pattern’s influence on the dynamic response of thickened tailings disposals: a periodic approach     

Gabriel Ferrer  Esteban Sáez  Christian Ledezma 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2018,17(1):179-190

Copper production is an essential component of the Chilean economy. During the extraction process of copper, large quantities of waste materials (tailings) are produced, which are typically stored in large tailing ponds. Thickened Tailings Disposal (TTD) is an alternative to conventional tailings ponds. In TTD, a considerable amount of water is extracted from the tailings before their deposition. Once a thickened tailings layer is deposited, it loses water and it shrinks, forming a relatively regular structure of tailings blocks with vertical cracks in between, which are then filled up with “fresh” tailings once the new upper layer is deposited. The dynamic response of a representative column of this complex structure made out of tailings blocks with softer material in between was analyzed using a periodic half-space finite element model. The tailings’ behavior was modeled using an elasto-plastic multi-yielding constitutive model, and Chilean earthquake records were used for the seismic analyses. Special attention was given to the liquefaction potential evaluation of TTD.  相似文献   

Fourier amplitude sensitivity test applied to dynamic combined finite-discrete element methods–based simulations     

Humberto C. Godinez  Esteban Rougier  Dave Osthus  Zhou Lei  Earl Knight  Gowri Srinivasan 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(1):30-44

Fracture propagation plays a key role for a number of applications of interest to the scientific community, from dynamic fracture processes like spallation and fragmentation in metals to failure of ceramics, airplane wings, etc. Simulations of material deformation and fracture propagation rely on accurate knowledge of material characteristics such as material strength and the amount of energy being dissipated during the fracture process. Within the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM) framework material fracture behavior is typically described through a parametrized softening curve, which defines a stress-strain relationship unique to each material. We apply the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test to explore how each of these parameters influences the simulated damage processes and to determine the key input parameters that have the most impact on the model response. We present several sensitivity numerical experiments for the simulation of a split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) test for weathered granite samples using different combinations of model parameters. We validate the obtained results against SHPB experimental data. The experiments show that the model is mostly sensitive to parameters related to tensile and shear strengths, even in the presence of other parameter perturbations. The results suggest that the specification of tensile and shear strengths at the interfaces dominate the stress-time history of the FDEM simulation of SHPB test.  相似文献   

‘Palaeolago Fueguino’, a Late Pleistocene lacustrine basin located in the central sector of Tierra del Fuego: a seismostratigraphic study     

Jorge G. Lozano  Donaldo M. Bran  Federica Donda  Emanuele Lodolo  Federico D. Esteban  Alejandro Tassone 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(2):273-287

At ~20 ka bp , lakes Yehuin, Chepelmut and Fagnano constituted a single, large water body in the central part of Isla Grande de Tierra del Fuego (southernmost Patagonia). The evolutionary history of this lake, known as ‘Palaeolago Fueguino’, was probably controlled by the advances, stillstands and retreats of the ‘Fagnano Palaeoglacier’, an outlet glacier that flowed eastward from the Darwin Cordillera ice sheet. A detailed analysis of high-resolution seismic reflection profiles acquired within the three lakes has allowed the identification and correlation of seven unconformities within the lacustrine sedimentary infill, three seismostratigraphic sequences in Lago Fagnano and four in Lago Yehuin. A seismic stratigraphic correlation between these sequences suggests that these basins formerly constituted a single, large lacustrine body. A lake-level curve of the evolutionary stages of each lake, derived from the seismostratigraphic analysis of the sedimentary infill is proposed here, representing a 17.5 ka-long record. It was further integrated with the glacial record of the advances and retreats of the Fagnano Palaeoglacier. This study has implications for interpreting the sedimentary history of lake basins in glaciated mountain ranges.  相似文献   

Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan     

Miguel Esteban  Christian Webersik  Tomoya Shibayama 《Climatic change》2010,102(3-4):555-578

The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios.  相似文献   

Spatial modelling of air temperature and precipitation for Andorra (Pyrenees) from daily circulation patterns   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

P. Esteban  M. Ninyerola  M. Prohom 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,96(1-2):43-56

Based on the daily sea level pressure (SLP) circulation catalogue obtained by Esteban, Martin-Vide and Mases, Int J Climatol 26:1501–1515, (2006) for Western Europe, high-resolution maps of daily maximum and minimum temperature, mean daily precipitation and daily precipitation probability have been obtained for Andorra (Pyrenees). The 20 daily-circulation patterns cover the period 1960–2001 and were generated using new approaches based on the rotated principal component analysis (PCA) and clustering technique. The final maps of Andorra associated with each circulation pattern have been constructed using altitude, latitude, continentality and solar radiation as multiple regression predictors (Ninyerola, Pons and Roure, Int J Climatol 20:1823–1841, 2000). The daily temperature and rainfall series used from Andorran, French and Catalan/Spanish weather stations have been checked for data quality. The results confirm the complexity of the spatial distribution of meteorological phenomena over mountainous areas such as in Andorra, and show the importance of the Mediterranean and Atlantic influence upon the climate of this country of the Pyrenees. On the other hand, different tests have been made showing that the classification results could improve the resulting interpolated climate maps by the use of the circulation-pattern frequencies.  相似文献   

Interactions and star-formation activity in Wolf–Rayet galaxies     

Ángel R. López-Sánchez  César Esteban 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,324(2-4):355-359

We present the main results of the Ph.D. thesis carried out by López-Sánchez (Ph.D. thesis, 2006), in which a detailed morphological, photometric and spectroscopic analysis of a sample of 20 Wolf–Rayet (WR) galaxies was performed. The main aims are the study of the star formation and O and WR stellar populations in these galaxies, and the role that interactions between low surface brightness companion objects have in the triggering of the bursts. We analyze the morphology, stellar populations, physical conditions, chemical abundances and kinematics of the ionized gas, as well as the star-formation activity of each system.  相似文献   

Estimation of increase in storm surge damage due to climate change and sea level rise in the Greater Tokyo area     

Sayaka Hoshino  Miguel Esteban  Takahito Mikami  Hiroshi Takagi  Tomoya Shibayama 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(1):539-565

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