Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France     

Florence Habets  Julien Boé  Michel Déqué  Agnès Ducharne  Simon Gascoin  Ali Hachour  Eric Martin  Christian Pagé  Eric Sauquet  Laurent Terray  Dominique Thiéry  Ludovic Oudin  Pascal Viennot 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):771-785

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.  相似文献   

Present climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model     

Leo Šeparović  Adelina Alexandru  René Laprise  Andrey Martynov  Laxmi Sushama  Katja Winger  Kossivi Tete  Michel Valin 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3167-3201

The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was used to dynamically downscale two Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM) simulations of the transient climate change for the period 1950–2100, over North America, following the CORDEX protocol. The CRCM5 was driven by data from the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR CGCM simulations, based on the historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) RCP4.5 radiative forcing scenario. The results show that the CRCM5 simulations reproduce relatively well the current-climate North American regional climatic features, such as the temperature and precipitation multiannual means, annual cycles and temporal variability at daily scale. A cold bias was noted during the winter season over western and southern portions of the continent. CRCM5-simulated precipitation accumulations at daily temporal scale are much more realistic when compared with its driving CGCM simulations, especially in summer when small-scale driven convective precipitation has a large contribution over land. The CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming over the continent in the 21st century, especially over the northern regions in winter. The winter warming is mostly contributed by the lower percentiles of daily temperatures, implying a reduction in the frequency and intensity of cold waves. A precipitation decrease is projected over Central America and an increase over the rest of the continent. For the average precipitation change in summer however there is little consensus between the simulations. Some of these differences can be attributed to the uncertainties in CGCM-projected changes in the position and strength of the Pacific Ocean subtropical high pressure.  相似文献   

Shaping climate policy in the housing sector in northern Chinese cities     

Michel Colombier 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):453-473

What are relevant urban development investment strategies for improving building energy efficiency (BEE) and decarbonizing the urban district heating supply in rapidly urbanizing China? Different trajectories of BEE and energy supply technologies are compared in the urban context in a northern Chinese city. Vigorous improvement of BEE will significantly enhance the prospective financial capacity to facilitate deployment of backstop technologies (e.g. carbon capture and storage) in order to decarbonize the energy supply and achieve the long-term targets of low-carbon buildings. Carbon finance instruments should be used to facilitate public policy to accompany the necessary transition in the urban development process. The government-run efficiency procurement scheme will overcome the problem of insufficient incentive and high transaction costs associated with individual Clean Development Mechanism projects. Appropriate investment strategies (allocation of financial resources over the time frame) will allow local governments to harness the large potentials of carbon emissions mitigation while minimizing the risk of long-term technical lock-in in the built environment in Chinese cities.  相似文献   

SHRIMP zircon U-Pb age, fitho- and biostratigraphic analyses of the Huaiyu Domain in South China,— Evidence for a Neoproterozoic orogen, not Late Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic collision     

Liangshu Shu Michel Faure Shaoyong Jiang Qun Yang Yujing Wang 《《幕》》2006,29(4):244-252

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Optimal orbits for Mars atmosphere remote sensing   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michel Capderou  François Forget 《Planetary and Space Science》2004,52(9):789-798

Most of the spacecrafts currently around Mars (or planned to reach Mars in the near future) use Sun-synchronous or near-polar orbits. Such orbits offer a very poor sampling of the diurnal cycle. Yet, sampling the diurnal cycle is of key importance to study Mars meteorology and climate. A comprehensive remote sensing data set should have been obtained by the end of the MRO mission, launched in 2005. For later windows, time-varying phenomena should be given the highest priority for remote sensing investigations. We present possible orbits for such missions which provide a rich spatial and temporal sampling with a relatively short repeat cycle (50 sols). After computation and determination of these orbits, said “optimal orbits”, we illustrate our results by tables of sampling and comparison with other orbits.  相似文献   

Discussion of the paper 'High- to ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) ductile shear zones in the Sulu UHP metamorphic belt, China: implications for continental subduction and exhumation' by Zhao et al.     

Wei Lin  Michel Faure  Patrick Monié  Nicole Le Breton 《地学学报》2005,17(1):86-88

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Monte Carlo simulation of GCR neutron capture production of cosmogenic nuclides in stony meteorites and lunar surface     

D. Kollr  R. Michel  J. Masarik 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2006,41(3):375-389

Abstract— A purely physical model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) particle interaction with meteoroids is used to investigate neutron interactions down to thermal energies. Experimental and/or evaluated excitation functions are used to calculate neutron capture production rates as a function of the size of the meteoroid and the depth below its surface. Presented are the depth profiles of cosmogenic radionuclides ³⁶Cl, ⁴¹Ca, ⁶⁰Co, ⁵⁹Ni, and ¹²⁹I for meteoroid radii from 10 cm up to 500 cm and a 2π irradiation. Effects of bulk chemical composition on n‐capture processes are studied and discussed for various chondritic and lunar compositions. The mean GCR particle flux over the last 300 ka was determined from the comparison of simulations with measured ⁴¹Ca activities in the Apollo 15 drill core. The determined value significantly differs from that obtained using equivalent models of spallation residue production.  相似文献   

Production of krypton and xenon isotopes in thick stony and iron targets isotropically irradiated with 1600 MeV protons     

E. Gilabert  B. Lavielle  R. Michel  I. Leya  S. Neumann  U. Herpers 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2002,37(7):951-976

Abstract— Two spherical targets made of gabbro with a radius of 25 cm and of steel with a radius of 10 cm were irradiated isotropically with 1600 MeV protons at the SATURNE synchrotron at Laboratoire National Saturne (LNS)/CEN Saclay, in order to simulate the production of nuclides in meteorites induced by galactic cosmic‐ray protons in space. These experiments supply depth‐dependent production rate data for a wide range of radioactive and stable isotopes in up to 28 target elements. In this paper, we report results for ⁷⁸Kr, ^80–86Kr isotopes in Rb, Sr, Y and Zr and for ¹²⁴Xe, ¹²⁶Xe, ^128–132Xe, ¹³⁴Xe, ¹³⁶Xe isotopes in Ba and La. Krypton and xenon concentrations have been measured at different depths in the spheres by using conventional mass spectrometry. Based on Monte‐Carlo techniques, theoretical production rates are calculated by folding depth‐dependent spectra of primary and secondary protons and secondary neutrons with the excitation functions of the relevant nuclear reactions. The comparison of the model calculation results with experimental data in the thick target experiments performed at LNS and previously at CERN have allowed adjustments of the poorly known excitation functions of neutron‐induced reactions. Thus, for the two experiments at SATURNE, excellent agreement is obtained between experimental and calculated production rates for most Kr and Xe isotopes in all investigated target elements. Only Xe production in Ba in the gabbro is underestimated by the calculations by ?25%. This work validates the approach of the thin‐target model calculations of cosmogenic nuclide production rates in the attempt of modeling the interaction of galactic cosmic‐ray protons with stony and iron meteorites in space as well as with lunar samples.  相似文献   

Characteristics of VLF emissions manifested by their cross-spectral phase information     

Dyfrig Jones  Francois Lefeuvre  Michel Parrot 《Planetary and Space Science》1983,31(10):1083-1097

Natural VLF emissions received by a single antenna can be characterised at each point in the emissions' frequency-time domain by a power and a phase. Emissions received at a single point by two antennae with a fixed relative orientation in space can be similarly described by the cross-spectral power and relative phase. It is shown that the cross-spectral phase contains information on the propagation characteristics of the waves which is better utilised in wave analysis than the power. In fact, the phase information allows weak signals to be identified more readily than is possible from a power spectrogram. It also allows the recognition of waves propagating with different wave normal directions. Data from the Geos-1 electric and magnetic antennae, pre-processed by the on-board correlator, are used to study the cross-spectral characteristics of VLF hiss and chorus in the Earth's magnetosphere.  相似文献   

Comparaison de catalogues de crateres lunaires     

Michel M. Froeschle 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1974,11(1-2):101-111

Résumé La partie systématique des différences entre les positions des cratères de plusieurs catalogues est développée en harmoniques sphériques. L'application du test en ² détermine l'ordre du développement. La méthode a été appliquée pour comparer le système de référence de Arthur avec les catalogues de Schrutka-Rechtenstamm et Gavrilov. On obtient les surfacesf (l, b) des différences systématiques de ces catalogues. La zone centrale de la face visible de la lune (± 40° en latitude et longitude) est bien déterminée, mais la zone marginale présente des différences systématiques qui peuvent atteindre le kilomètre.

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The systematic part of the differences between positions in crater catalogues is expanded into spherical harmonics. The application of the ² test determines the highest order of the expansion. The method was applied to compare the Arthur System with the Schrutka-Rechtenstamm and Gavrilov catalogues. The surfacesf (l, b) of systematic differences from these catalogues were obtained. The central zone of the near side of the Moon (± 40° in latitude and longitude) is well determined but the marginal zone presents systematic differences that can be as large as one kilometer.

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