Uncertainty Analysis of Strong-Motion and Seismic Hazard’ by R. Sigbjörnsson and N.N. Ambraseys     

Julian J. Bommer  Frank Scherbaum  Fabrice Cotton  Hilmar Bungum  Fabio Sabetta 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2004,2(2):261-267

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Towards fully data driven ground-motion prediction models for Europe   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Boumédiène Derras  Pierre Yves Bard  Fabrice Cotton 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(1):495-516

We have used the Artificial Neural Network method (ANN) for the derivation of physically sound, easy-to-handle, predictive ground-motion models from a subset of the Reference database for Seismic ground-motion prediction in Europe (RESORCE). Only shallow earthquakes (depth smaller than 25 km) and recordings corresponding to stations with measured $V_{s30}$ properties have been selected. Five input parameters were selected: the moment magnitude $M_{W}$ , the Joyner–Boore distance $R_{JB}$ , the focal mechanism, the hypocentral depth, and the site proxy $V_{S30}$ . A feed-forward ANN type is used, with one 5-neuron hidden layer, and an output layer grouping all the considered ground motion parameters, i.e., peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and 5 %-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at 62 periods from 0.01 to 4 s. A procedure similar to the random-effects approach was developed to provide between and within event standard deviations. The total standard deviation ( $\sigma $ ) varies between 0.298 and 0.378 (log $_{10}$ unit) depending on the period, with between-event and within-event variabilities in the range 0.149–0.190 and 0.258–0.327, respectively. Those values prove comparable to those of conventional GMPEs. Despite the absence of any a priori assumption on the functional dependence, our results exhibit a number of physically sound features: magnitude scaling of the distance dependency, near-fault saturation distance increasing with magnitude, amplification on soft soils and even indications for nonlinear effects in softer soils.  相似文献   

Toward a High-Resolution Monitoring of Continental Surface Water Extent and Dynamics,at Global Scale: from GIEMS (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites) to SWOT (Surface Water Ocean Topography)     

Catherine Prigent  Dennis P. Lettenmaier  Filipe Aires  Fabrice Papa 《Surveys in Geophysics》2016,37(2):339-355

Up to now, high-resolution mapping of surface water extent from satellites has only been available for a few regions, over limited time periods. The extension of the temporal and spatial coverage was difficult, due to the limitation of the remote sensing technique [e.g., the interaction of the radiation with vegetation or cloud for visible observations or the temporal sampling with the synthetic aperture radar (SAR)]. The advantages and the limitations of the various satellite techniques are reviewed. The need to have a global and consistent estimate of the water surfaces over long time periods triggered the development of a multi-satellite methodology to obtain consistent surface water all over the globe, regardless of the environments. The Global Inundation Extent from Multi-satellites (GIEMS) combines the complementary strengths of satellite observations from the visible to the microwave, to produce a low-resolution monthly dataset (\(0.25^\circ \,\times \,0.25^\circ\)) of surface water extent and dynamics. Downscaling algorithms are now developed and applied to GIEMS, using high-spatial-resolution information from visible, near-infrared, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images, or from digital elevation models. Preliminary products are available down to 500-m spatial resolution. This work bridges the gaps and prepares for the future NASA/CNES Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission to be launched in 2020. SWOT will delineate surface water extent estimates and their water storage with an unprecedented spatial resolution and accuracy, thanks to a SAR in an interferometry mode. When available, the SWOT data will be adopted to downscale GIEMS, to produce a long time series of water surfaces at global scale, consistent with the SWOT observations.  相似文献   

The Kozai resonance in the outer solar system and the dynamics of long-period comets     

Fabrice Thomas  Alessandro Morbidelli 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1996,64(3):209-229

We consider the secular evolution of the orbits of bodies in the Outer Solar System under the perturbations of the jovian planets assumed on coplanar and circular orbits. Through the approach used for asteroidal belt by Yoshihide Kozai in 1962, we obtain that the Kozai resonance do not affect the behavior of bodies belonging to the Kuiper belt but concerns the long-timescale evolution of long-period comets. In particular this resonance appears as a process contributing to produce Sun-grazer comets.  相似文献   

Calpionellid zonation of the Jurassic–Cretaceous transition in North-Atlasic Tunisia. Updated Upper Jurassic stratigraphy of the ‘Tunisian trough’ and regional correlations     

Mabrouk Boughdiri  Houaïda Sallouhi  Kamel Malaoui  Mohamed Soussi  Fabrice Cordey 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(16):1250-1259

The analysis of calpionellid associations from jebels Amar and Jédidi sections in North-Atlasic Tunisia provides, for the first time, a precise biozonation of the Jurassic–Cretaceous transition succession. In the light of the new data obtained and considering recently published results, the age of Upper Jurassic formations is clarified, allowing correlations with the Tunisian ‘Dorsale’ and the North–South Axis successions. Within the Maghrebides' range, sections from the external zones correlated to the Tunisian successions are quite distinctive from their equivalent in the internal zones. Both have evolved in different palaeogeographic domains related to the early structuration of the northwestern and southwestern Tethys margins. To cite this article: M. Boughdiri et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

Limestone assimilation and the origin of CO₂ emissions at the Alban Hills (Central Italy): Constraints from experimental petrology     

Giada Iacono Marziano  Fabrice Gaillard  Michel Pichavant 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2007

The Alban Hills volcanic region (20 km south of Rome, in the Roman Province) emitted a large volume of potassic magmas (> 280 km³) during the Quaternary. Chemical interactions between ascending magmas and the ∼ 7000–8000-m-thick sedimentary carbonate basement are documented by abundant high temperature skarn xenoliths in the eruptive products and have been frequently corroborated by geochemical surveys. In this paper we characterize the effect of carbonate assimilation on phase relationships at 200 MPa and 1150–1050 °C by experimental petrology. Calcite and dolomite addition promotes the crystallization of Ca-rich pyroxene and Mg-rich olivine respectively, and addition of both carbonates results in the desilication of the melt. Furthermore, carbonate assimilation liberates a large quantity of CO₂-rich fluid. A comparison of experimental versus natural mineral, glass and bulk rock compositions suggests large variations in the degree of carbonate assimilation for the different Alban Hills eruptions. A maximum of 15 wt.% assimilation is suggested by some melt inclusion and clinopyroxene compositions; however, most of the natural data indicate assimilation of between 3 and 12 wt.% carbonate. Current high CO₂ emissions in this area most likely indicate that such an assimilation process still occurs at depth. We calculate that a magma intruding into the carbonate basement with a rate of ∼ 1 – 2 · 10⁶ m³/year, estimated by geophysical studies, and assimilating 3–12 wt.% of host rocks would release an amount of CO₂ matching the current yearly emissions at the Alban Hills. Our results strongly suggest that current CO₂ emissions in this region are the shallow manifestation of hot mafic magma intrusion in the carbonate-hosted reservoir at 5–6 km depth, with important consequences for the present-day volcanic hazard evaluation in this densely populated and historical area.  相似文献   

Towards a better understanding of changes in wintertime cold extremes over Europe: a pilot study with CNRM and IPSL atmospheric models     

Julien Cattiaux  Hervé Douville  Aurélien Ribes  Fabrice Chauvin  Chloé Plante 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(9-10):2433-2445

Recent winter seasons have evidenced that global warming does not exclude the occurrence of exceptionally cold and/or snowy episodes in the Northern mid-latitudes. The expected rarefaction of such events is likely to exacerbate both their societal and environmental impacts. This paper therefore aims to evaluate model uncertainties underlying the fate of wintertime cold extremes over Europe. Understanding why climate models (1) still show deficiencies in simulating present-day features and (2) differ in their responses under future scenarios for the twentyfirst century indeed constitutes a crucial challenge. Here we propose a weather-regime approach in order to separate the contributions of large-scale circulation and non-dynamical processes to biases or changes in the simulated mean and extreme temperatures. We illustrate our methodology from the wintertime occurrence of extremely cold days in idealized atmosphere-only experiments performed with two of the CMIP5 climate models (CNRM-CM5 and IPSL-CM5A-LR). First we find that most of the present-day temperature biases are due to systematic errors in non-dynamical processes, while the main features of the large-scale dynamics are well captured in such experiments driven by observed sea-surface temperatures, with the exception of a generalized underestimation of blocking episodes. Then we show that uncertainties associated with changes in large-scale circulation modulate the depletion in cold extremes under an idealized scenario for the late twentyfirst century. These preliminary results suggest that the original methodology proposed in this paper can be helpful for understanding spreads of larger model-ensembles when simulating the response of temperature extremes to climate change.  相似文献   

Multifold borehole radar acquisition and processing     

Fabrice Hollender  Sylvie Tillard  & Laurent Corin 《Geophysical Prospecting》1999,47(6):1077-1090

The multifold acquisition principle was applied to a borehole radar survey, performed in a granitic site (Grimsel Test Site, Switzerland). Two multifold coverage acquisitions (40-fold and 20-fold) were carried out in a subhorizontal borehole. Instrumental drifts (transmission time and sampling frequency fluctuations) were corrected in order to remove shifts observed on CMP gathers and to optimize velocity analysis and trace stacking. Computation of velocity spectra was adapted in order to take into account the features of the medium investigated (homogeneous velocity, various reflector orientations). The NMO velocities were then interpreted as angles between reflectors and the survey line. The processing, based on the computation of several constant velocity stacked sections performed with different NMO velocities, leads to better results than the standard DMO + NMO processing. The signal-to-noise ratio of the stacked profile is improved in comparison with the single-fold section, which results from a standard acquisition. From a practical point of view, the implementation of a multifold radar survey within a borehole is difficult but a greater investigation range is obtained, more reflectors are detected and the mapping of geological discontinuities is improved.  相似文献   

Selecting time windows of seismic phases and noise for engineering seismology applications: a versatile methodology and algorithm     

Vincent Perron  Aurore Laurendeau  Fabrice Hollender  Pierre-Yves Bard  Céline Gélis  Paola Traversa  Stéphane Drouet 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2211-2225

Seismic signal windowing is the preliminary step for many analysis procedures in engineering seismology (standard spectral ratio, quality factor, general inversion techniques, etc.). Moreover a noise window is often necessary for the data quality control through the signal-to-noise verification. Selecting the noise window can be challenging when large heterogeneous datasets are considered, especially when they include short pre-event noise signals. This study proposes a fully automatic and configurable (i.e., with default parameters that can also be user-defined) algorithm to windowing the noise and the P, S, coda and full signal once the P-wave (T _P ) and S-wave (T _S ) first arrivals are known. An application example is given on a KiK-net dataset. A Matlab language implementation of this algorithm is proposed as an online resource.  相似文献   

Key structural parameters affecting earthquake ground motion in 2D and 3D sedimentary structures     

Peter Moczo  Jozef Kristek  Pierre-Yves Bard  Svetlana Stripajová  Fabrice Hollender  Zuzana Chovanová  Miriam Kristeková  Deborah Sicilia 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2421-2450

Alluvial valleys generate strong effects on earthquake ground motion (EGM). These effects are rarely accounted for even in site-specific studies because of (a) the cost of the required geophysical surveys to constrain the site model, (b) lack of data for empirical prediction, and (c) poor knowledge of the key controlling parameters. We performed 3D, 2D and 1D simulations for six typical sedimentary valleys of various width and depth, and for a variety of modifications of these 6 “nominal models” to investigate sensitivity of EGM characteristics to impedance contrast, attenuation, velocity gradient and geometry. We calculated amplification factors, and 2D/1D and 3D/2D aggravation factors for 10 EGM characteristics, using a representative set of recorded accelerograms to account for input motion variability. The largest values of the amplification and aggravation factors are found for the Arias intensity and cumulative absolute velocity, the lowest for the root-mean-square acceleration. The aggravation factors are largest for the vertical component. For each model, at least one EGM characteristic exhibits a significant 2D/1D aggravation factor, while all EGM characteristics exhibit significant 2D/1D aggravation factor on the vertical component. For all investigated sites, there is always an area in the valley for which 1D estimates are not sufficient. 2D estimates are insufficient at several sites. The key structural parameters are the shape ratio and overall geometry of the sediment-bedrock interface, impedance contrast at the sediment-bedrock interface, and attenuation in sediments. The amplification factors may largely exceed the values that are usually considered in GMPEs between soft soils and rock sites.  相似文献