A unified framework for earthquake risk assessment of transportation networks and gross regional product     

Federico Carturan  Mariano Angelo Zanini  Carlo Pellegrino  Claudio Modena 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(2):795-806

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have had serious impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 emphasized the importance of preparedness and awareness to reduce social impacts. In addition to that, earthquake damaged businesses dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Generating scenario earthquakes in a proper way is important to suitably assess the risk in bridge networks and social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. Seismic hazard is traditionally assessed by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Although PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location it is not suitable for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes can overcome this problem; they represent the actual distribution of ground shaking for a spatially distributed system while being hazard consistent. In this work a methodology to generate scenario earthquakes has been proposed using a novel approach with the aim of being the basic step for investigating possible earthquake consequences in seismic areas and contributing to reduce losses.  相似文献   

Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

Tommaso Carlà  Emanuele Intrieri  Federico Di Traglia  Teresa Nolesini  Giovanni Gigli  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):517-534

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.  相似文献   

Estimates of effective permeability for non-Newtonian fluid flow in randomly heterogeneous porous media     

Vittorio Di Federico  Marco Pinelli  Rita Ugarelli 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(7):1067-1076

An understanding of the interplay between non-Newtonian effects in porous media flow and field-scale domain heterogeneity is of great importance in several engineering and geological applications. Here we present a simplified approach to the derivation of an effective permeability for flow of a purely viscous power–law fluid with flow behavior index n in a randomly heterogeneous porous domain subject to a uniform pressure gradient. A standard form of the flow law generalizing the Darcy’s law to non-Newtonian fluids is adopted, with the permeability coefficient being the only source of randomness. The natural logarithm of the permeability is considered a spatially homogeneous and correlated Gaussian random field. Under the ergodic hypothesis, an effective permeability is first derived for two limit 1-D flow geometries: flow parallel to permeability variation (serial-type layers), and flow transverse to permeability variation (parallel-type layers). The effective permeability of a 2-D or 3-D isotropic domain is conjectured to be a power average of 1-D results, generalizing results valid for Newtonian fluids under the validity of Darcy’s law; the conjecture is validated comparing our results with previous literature findings. The conjecture is then extended, allowing the exponents of the power averaging to be functions of the flow behavior index. For Newtonian flow, novel expressions for the effective permeability reduce to those derived in the past. The effective permeability is shown to be a function of flow dimensionality, domain heterogeneity, and flow behavior index. The impact of heterogeneity is significant, especially for shear-thinning fluids with a low flow behavior index, which tend to exhibit channeling behavior.  相似文献   

Retrogressive fabric development during exhumation of the Voltri Massif (Ligurian Alps,Italy): arguments for an extensional origin and implications for the Alps–Apennines linkage     

Gianluca Vignaroli  Claudio Faccenna  Federico Rossetti 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2009,98(5):1077-1093

Geological mapping coupled with structural investigations carried out in the Voltri Massif (eastern Ligurian Alps, Italy) provide new data for the interpretation of the tectonic context controlling main fabric development during exhumation of its high-pressure core. The Voltri Massif is here interpreted as a c. 30 km-long eclogite-bearing, asymmetric dome formed by the progressive verticalisation of the regional, second-phase mylonitic foliation developed during retrogressive greenschist metamorphic conditions. In this light, the exhumation history is driven by a ductile-to-brittle extensional process, operating through low-angle, top-to-the-W multiple detachment systems. A Late Eocene–Early Oligocene age for this extensional episode is proposed on the basis of structural correlations, stratigraphic and radiometric constraints. In this scenario, the Voltri Massif is interpreted as an extensional domain developed to accommodate the Late Eocene–Early Oligocene arching of the Western Alps–Northern Apennines orogenic system.  相似文献   

Development of water management strategies in southern Mesopotamia during the fourth and third millennium B.C.E.     

Simone Mantellini  Vincenzo Picotti  Abbas Al-Hussainy  Nicolò Marchetti  Federico Zaina 《Geoarchaeology》2024,39(3):268-299

The last two decades witnessed increasing scholarly interest in the history of water management in southern Mesopotamia. Thanks to many geoarchaeological research projects conducted throughout the central and southern Iraqi floodplains, a general understanding of the macrophases of anthropogenic manipulation of this vast hydraulic landscape has been achieved. However, current narratives mostly rely on studies at a regional scale and are based on excessively long chronological phases (often spanning a whole millennium). A finer-tuned analysis at a submillennial scale is needed to better appreciate the dynamics that led to the development of artificial canals and irrigation systems and the creation of harbours in cities and other navigation-related facilities. The Iraqi-Italian QADIS project is addressing this issue through a systematic geoarchaeological investigation in the south-eastern area of the Qadisiyah province. We aim to update the current narrative by analysing case studies involving specific periods of occupation. We performed 17 boreholes to propose a date on the functioning period of the hydraulic works in five selected archaeological sites of this region. This approach allowed us to understand changes in water management strategies in both the short and the medium term (i.e., on a scale of centuries). In this paper, we present the results for the fourth and third millennia B.C.E. This period witnessed a crucial passage from the basic exploitation of natural watercourses for irrigation and occasional navigation to the emergence of the first system of artificial canals and intraurban harbours.  相似文献   

Surface-wave analysis for static corrections in mineral exploration: A case study from central Sweden     

Myrto Papadopoulou  Federico Da Col  Binbin Mi  Emma Bäckström  Paul Marsden  Bojan Brodic  Alireza Malehmir  Laura Valentina Socco 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(1):214-231

In mineral exploration, increased interest towards deeper mineralizations makes seismic methods attractive. One of the critical steps in seismic processing workflows is the static correction, which is applied to correct the effect of the shallow, highly heterogeneous subsurface layers, and improve the imaging of deeper targets. We showed an effective approach to estimate the statics, based on the analysis of surface waves (groundroll) contained in the seismic reflection data, and we applied it to a legacy seismic line acquired at the iron-oxide mining site of Ludvika in Sweden. We applied surface-wave methods that were originally developed for hydrocarbon exploration, modified as a step-by-step workflow to suit the different geologic context of hard-rock sites. The workflow starts with the detection of sharp lateral variations in the subsurface, the existence of which is common at hard-rock sites. Their location is subsequently used, to ensure that the dispersion curves extracted from the data are not affected by strong lateral variations of the subsurface properties. The dispersion curves are picked automatically, windowing the data and applying a wavefield transform. A pseudo-2D time-average S-wave velocity and time-average P-wave velocity profile are obtained directly from the dispersion curves, after inverting only a reference curve. The time-average P-wave velocity profile is then used for the direct estimation of the one-way traveltime, which provides the static corrections. The resulting P-wave statics from the field data were compared with statics computed through conventional P-wave tomography. Their difference was mostly negligible with more than 91% of the estimations being in agreement with the conventional statics, proving the effectiveness of the proposed workflow. The application of the statics obtained from surface waves provided a stacked section comparable with that obtained by applying tomostatics.  相似文献   

NanoSr – A New Carbonate Microanalytical Reference Material for In Situ Strontium Isotope Analysis     

Michael Weber  Federico Lugli  Bodo Hattendorf  Denis Scholz  Regina Mertz‐Kraus  Damien Guinoiseau  Klaus Peter Jochum 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2020,44(1):69-83

The in situ measurement of Sr isotopes in carbonates by MC‐ICP‐MS is limited by the availability of suitable microanalytical reference materials (RMs), which match the samples of interest. Whereas several well‐characterised carbonate reference materials for Sr mass fractions > 1000 µg g^?1 are available, there is a lack of well‐characterised carbonate microanalytical RMs with lower Sr mass fractions. Here, we present a new synthetic carbonate nanopowder RM with a Sr mass fraction of ca. 500 µg g^?1 suitable for microanalytical Sr isotope research (‘NanoSr’). NanoSr was analysed by both solution‐based and in situ techniques. Element mass fractions were determined using EPMA (Ca mass fraction), as well as laser ablation and solution ICP‐MS in different laboratories. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio was determined by well‐established bulk methods for Sr isotope measurements and is 0.70756 ± 0.00003 (2s). The Sr isotope microhomogeneity of the material was determined by LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS, which resulted in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.70753 ± 0.00007 (2s) and 0.70757 ± 0.00006 (2s), respectively, in agreement with the solution data within uncertainties. Thus, this new reference material is well suited to monitor and correct microanalytical Sr isotope measurements of low‐Sr, low‐REE carbonate samples. NanoSr is available from the corresponding author.  相似文献   

An individual-based population dynamic model for estimating biomass yield and nutrient fluxes through an off-shore mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) farm     

Daniele Brigolin  Gabriele Dal Maschio  Federico Rampazzo  Michele Giani  Roberto Pastres 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

The fluxes of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus through an off-shore long-line Mytilus galloprovincialis farm during a typical rearing cycle were estimated by combining a simple population dynamic model, based on a new individual model, and a set of field data, concerning the composition of the seston, as well as that of mussel meat and faeces. The individual model, based on an energy budget, was validated against a set of original field data, which were purposely collected from July 2006 to May 2007 in the North-Western Adriatic Sea (Italy) and was further tested using historical data. The model was upscaled to the population level by means of a set of Monte Carlo simulations, which were used for estimating the size structure of the population. The daily fluxes of C, N and P associated with mussel filtration, excretion and faeces and pseudo-faeces production were integrated over the 10-month-long rearing cycle and compared with the total amount of C, N and P removed by harvesting. The results indicate that the individual model compares well with an existing literature model and provides reliable estimations of the growth of mussel specimen over a range of trophic conditions which are typical of the Northern Adriatic Sea coastal area. The results of the budget calculation indicate that, even though the harvest represents a net removal of phosphorus and nitrogen from the ecosystem, the mussel farm increases the retention time of both nutrients in the coastal area, via the deposition of faeces and pseudo-faeces on the sea-bed. In fact, the amount of nitrogen associated with deposition is approximately twice the harvested one and the amount of phosphorus is approximately five times higher. These findings are in qualitative agreement with the results of literature budget and model calculations carried out in a temperate coastal embayment. This agreement suggests that the proper assessment of the overall effect of long-line mussel farming on both the benthic and pelagic ecosystem asks for an integrated modelling approach, which should include the dynamic of early diagenesis processes, as well as of that of nutrients released from the surface sediment.  相似文献   

Subantarctic macrotidal flats, cheniers and beaches in San Sebastian Bay, Tierra Del Fuego, Argentina   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Federico Vilas  Alfredo Arche  Marcelo Ferrero  Federico Isla 《Marine Geology》1999,160(3-4):301-326

San Sebastian Bay is a large, semicircular coastal embayment situated on the Atlantic coast of Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. It is a high-energy, subantarctic environment with a tidal range of 10.4 m, influenced by large waves of Atlantic and local origin and swept by constant, strong westerly winds. A 17 km long gravel spit protects the Northern part of the Bay giving rise to a gradient in sedimentary processes. From south to north, are seven distinct sedimentary environments. Coastal sedimentation started at least 5200 years before present (BP) and a rapid progradation related to a relative sea-level drop has infilled about 6 kilometres of the Bay with a sedimentary sequence 10–11 m thick. 14-C dating of unabraded shells in the Chenier ridges of the relict part of the complex allows for a precise reconstruction of the stages of the progradation, that has slowed from 2.35 m/year at 5000 years BP to 0.6 m/year at present. The possible causes of the sea-level drop are discussed.  相似文献   

Application of conditional geostatistical simulation to calculate the probability of occurrence of earthquakes belonging to a seismic series     

Federico Torcal  Antonio M. Posadas  Mario Chica  & Inmaculada Serrano 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,139(3):703-725

Geostatistics offers various techniques of estimation and simulation that have been satisfactorily applied in solving geological problems. In this sense, conditional geostatistical simulation is applied to calculate the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with a lower than or equal magnitude to one determined during a seismic series. It is possible to calculate the energy of the next most probable earthquake from a specific time, given knowledge of the structure existing among earthquakes occurring prior to a specific moment.  相似文献