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11.
Niklas Höhne Hanna Fekete Michel G.J. den Elzen Andries F. Hof Takeshi Kuramochi 《Climate Policy》2018,18(4):425-441
One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual assessment approach. We recommend that such a comprehensive ambition assessment framework, employing a large variety of approaches, is used in the future to capture a wide spectrum of perspectives on ambition.
POLICY RELEVANCE
Assessing the ambition of the national climate proposals is particularly important as the Paris Agreement asks for regular reviews of national contributions, keeping in mind that countries raise their ambition over time. Such an assessment will be an important part of the regular global stocktake that will take place every five years, starting with a ‘light’ version in 2018. However, comprehensive methods to assess the proposals are lacking. This article provides such a comprehensive assessment framework. 相似文献
12.
Palma Massimiliano Iacono Roberto Sannino Gianmaria Bargagli Andrea Carillo Adriana Fekete Balazs M. Lombardi Emanuele Napolitano Ernesto Pisacane Giovanna Struglia Maria Vittoria 《Ocean Dynamics》2020,70(7):935-963
Ocean Dynamics - The tides in the Mediterranean Sea are generally weaker than in other regions of the world ocean, but are locally intensified in passages with complex bathymetry, such as the... 相似文献
13.
Michael A. Rawlins Richard B. Lammers Steve Frolking Balzs M. Fekete Charles J. Vorosmarty 《水文研究》2003,17(13):2521-2539
A terrestrial hydrological model, developed to simulate the high‐latitude water cycle, is described, along with comparisons with observed data across the pan‐Arctic drainage basin. Gridded fields of plant rooting depth, soil characteristics (texture, organic content), vegetation, and daily time series of precipitation and air temperature provide the primary inputs used to derive simulated runoff at a grid resolution of 25 km across the pan‐Arctic. The pan‐Arctic water balance model (P/WBM) includes a simple scheme for simulating daily changes in soil frozen and liquid water amounts, with the thaw–freeze model (TFM) driven by air temperature, modelled soil moisture content, and physiographic data. Climate time series (precipitation and air temperature) are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis project for the period 1980–2001. P/WBM‐generated maximum summer active‐layer thickness estimates differ from a set of observed data by an average of 12 cm at 27 sites in Alaska, with many of the differences within the variability (1σ) seen in field samples. Simulated long‐term annual runoffs are in the range 100 to 400 mm year?1. The highest runoffs are found across northeastern Canada, southern Alaska, and Norway, and lower estimates are noted along the highest latitudes of the terrestrial Arctic in North America and Asia. Good agreement exists between simulated and observed long‐term seasonal (winter, spring, summer–fall) runoff to the ten Arctic sea basins (r = 0·84). Model water budgets are most sensitive to changes in precipitation and air temperature, whereas less affect is noted when other model parameters are altered. Increasing daily precipitation by 25% amplifies annual runoff by 50 to 80% for the largest Arctic drainage basins. Ignoring soil ice by eliminating the TFM sub‐model leads to runoffs that are 7 to 27% lower than the control run. The results of these model sensitivity experiments, along with other uncertainties in both observed validation data and model inputs, emphasize the need to develop improved spatial data sets of key geophysical quantities (particularly climate time series) to estimate terrestrial Arctic hydrological budgets better. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
Scales as a challenge for vulnerability assessment 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
The aim of this paper is to introduce scale as a basic tool for improving the conceptual structure of vulnerability assessments.
The terminology useful for vulnerability assessments and the current use of scale issues in theoretical vulnerability frameworks
will be discussed briefly. Two case studies working on sub-national and on local level will demonstrate problems as well as
benefits resulting from scale implications. Both assessments analyse vulnerability in context to river floods in Germany.
In order to develop a spatial comparison and to integrate topics like environment and society, vulnerability assessments need
to be aware of scale implications. The main point is that a scale debate on a broader spectrum than just in technical spatial
terms is missing in vulnerability and risk conceptualisations so far. Vulnerability assessments and scale are highly intertwined,
not only in technical application but also in conceptualisation, which needs more scientific development. 相似文献
15.
Balzs M. Fekete John J. Gibson Pradeep Aggarwal Charles J. Vrsmarty 《Journal of Hydrology》2006,330(3-4):444-456
Isotope tracers are widely used to study hydrological processes in small catchments, but their use in continental-scale hydrological modeling has been limited. This paper describes the development of an isotope-enabled global water balance and transport model (iWBM/WTM) capable of simulating key hydrological processes and associated isotopic responses at the large scale. Simulations and comparisons of isotopic signals in precipitation and river discharge from available datasets, particularly the IAEA GNIP global precipitation climatology and the USGS river isotope dataset spanning the contiguous United States, as well as selected predictions of isotopic response in yet unmonitored areas illustrate the potential for isotopes to be applied as a diagnostic tool in water cycle model development. Various realistic and synthetic forcings of the global hydrologic and isotopic signals are discussed. The test runs demonstrate that the primary control on isotope composition of river discharge is the isotope composition of precipitation, with land surface characteristics and precipitation-amount having less impact. Despite limited availability of river isotope data at present, the application of realistic climatic and isotopic inputs in the model also provides a better understanding of the global distribution of isotopic variations in evapotranspiration and runoff, and reveals a plausible approach for constraining the partitioning of surface and subsurface runoff and the size and variability of the effective groundwater pool at the macro-scale. 相似文献
16.
Emily Fekete 《Geographical review》2015,105(4):472-491
Due to the hybrid nature of material and digital spaces, more decisions are being made online that have a direct effect on offline actions. This is increasingly true for the locations where people are choosing to consume goods and services such as restaurants or retail outlets. The growth of the GeoWeb—personal data uploaded to certain Internet sites such as social media platforms—has established large databases showing the locations where people go during their daily lives for the purposes of consumption. One such repository is the social network, Foursquare, which people use to display their physical location to their friends, digitally. In looking more closely at datasets from Foursquare overlaid with information on racial characteristics in census tracts, a pattern emerges: predominantly African‐American tracts are increasingly left out of this type of online participation. This paper will compare Foursquare data from several U.S. cities to discuss the implications of being left off of social media platforms tied to economic activity. It is likely that these virtually invisible areas will have a direct impact on the economic vitality of their physical counterparts 相似文献
17.
Nima Ehsani Balazs M. Fekete Charles J. Vörösmarty Zachary D. Tessler 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(4):1151-1166
Construction of dams and the resulting water impoundments are one of the most common engineering procedures implemented on river systems globally; yet simulating reservoir operation at the regional and global scales remains a challenge in human–earth system interactions studies. Developing a general reservoir operating scheme suitable for use in large-scale hydrological models can improve our understanding of the broad impacts of dams operation. Here we present a novel use of artificial neural networks to map the general input/output relationships in actual operating rules of real world dams. We developed a new general reservoir operation scheme (GROS) which may be added to daily hydrologic routing models for simulating the releases from dams, in regional and global-scale studies. We show the advantage of our model in distinguishing between dams with various storage capacities by demonstrating how it modifies the reservoir operation in respond to changes in capacity of dams. Embedding GROS in a water balance model, we analyze the hydrological impact of dam size as well as their distribution pattern within a drainage basin and conclude that for large-scale studies it is generally acceptable to aggregate the capacity of smaller dams and instead model a hypothetical larger dam with the same total storage capacity; however we suggest limiting the aggregation area to HUC 8 sub-basins (approximately equal to the area of a 60 km or a 30 arc minute grid cell) to avoid exaggerated results. 相似文献
18.
Pál Sümegi Sándor Gulyás Dávid Molnár Gábor Bozsó István Fekete László Makó Péter Cseh Mihály Molnár Balázs P. Sümegi Peter Almond Christian Zeeden Tünde Törőcsik Janina J. Nett András Markó Frank Lehmkuhl 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(8):1364-1381
The 10 m thick Madaras loess–palaeosol profile is one of the Hungarian outcrops that yielded Upper Palaeolithic artefacts in 1966. To clarify the nature of the deposits and establish a reliable litho- and chronostratigraphy, a profile was opened and sampled at 25 cm intervals on the northern side of the brickyard in 1975. Analyses focused on grain size, carbonate content and the mollusc fauna. The chronology was based on the mollusc composition and a single date from the archaeological layer at the depth of ca 7 m below the surface. The 1975 profile was destroyed by mining but the reposited samples allowed an extended analysis of this important Marine Isotope Stage 2 record to which archaeological features were directly assigned. A new absolute chronology was built based on 11 14C dates. Environmental magnetic, geochemical and palaeoecological investigations allowed a refined view of site evolution with reliable chronology for the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results corroborated those of previous investigations done on other coeval loess–palaeosol sequences of the Southern Carpathian Basin. This also allowed for a temporal correlation to another local record with the published high-resolution chronology of the same brickyard and enabled modelling of local-scale heterogeneity of the environment in the long run. 相似文献
19.
Catherine Pierre Marie-Madeleine Blanc-Valleron Jér?me Demange Omar Boudouma Jean-Paul Foucher Thomas Pape Tobias Himmler Noemi Fekete Volkhard Spiess 《Geo-Marine Letters》2012,32(5-6):501-513
The southwest African continental margin is well known for occurrences of active methane-rich fluid seeps associated with seafloor pockmarks at water depths ranging broadly from the shelf to the deep basins, as well as with high gas flares in the water column, gas hydrate accumulations, diagenetic carbonate crusts and highly diverse benthic faunal communities. During the M76/3a expedition of R/V METEOR in 2008, gravity cores recovered abundant authigenic carbonate concretions from three known pockmark sites—Hydrate Hole, Worm Hole, the Regab pockmark—and two sites newly discovered during that cruise, the so-called Deep Hole and Baboon Cluster. The carbonate concretions were commonly associated with seep-benthic macrofauna and occurred within sediments bearing shallow gas hydrates. This study presents selected results from a comprehensive analysis of the mineralogy and isotope geochemistry of diagenetic carbonates sampled at these five pockmark sites. The oxygen isotope stratigraphy obtained from three cores of 2–5?m length indicates a maximum age of about 60,000–80,000?years for these sediments. The authigenic carbonates comprise mostly magnesian calcite and aragonite, associated occasionally with dolomite. Their very low carbon isotopic compositions (–61.0?<?δ13C ‰ V-PDB?<?–40.1) suggest anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) as the main process controlling carbonate precipitation. The oxygen isotopic signatures (+2.4?<?δ18O ‰ V-PDB?<?+6.2) lie within the range in equilibrium under present-day/interglacial to glacial conditions of bottom seawater; alternatively, the most positive δ18O values might reflect the contribution of 18O-rich water from gas hydrate decomposition. The frequent occurrence of diagenetic gypsum crystals suggests that reduced sulphur (hydrogen sulphide, pyrite) from sub-seafloor sediments has been oxidized by oxygenated bottom water. The acidity released during this process can potentially induce the dissolution of carbonate, thereby providing enough Ca2+ ions for pore solutions to reach gypsum saturation; this is thought to be promoted by the bio-irrigation and burrowing activity of benthic fauna. The δ18O–δ13C patterns identified in the authigenic carbonates are interpreted to reflect variations in the rate of AOM during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, in turn controlled by variably strong methane fluxes through the pockmarks. These results complement the conclusions of Kasten et al. in this special issue, based on authigenic barite trends at the Hydrate Hole and Worm Hole pockmarks which were interpreted to reflect spatiotemporal variations in AOM related to subsurface gas hydrate formation–decomposition. 相似文献
20.
Natural Hazards - Social vulnerability assessments of disaster risks related to natural or man-made hazards have become state of the art, while not undisputed. One critique—that most... 相似文献