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21.
The main purpose of this study is to develop a new type of artificial neural network based model for constructing a debris flow warning system. The Chen‐Eu‐Lan river basin, which is located in Central Taiwan, is assigned as the study area. The creek is one of the most well‐known debris flow areas where several damaging debris flows have been reported in the last two decades. The hydrological and geological data, which might have great influence on the occurrence of debris flows, are first collected and analysed, then, the shared near neighbours neural network (SNN + NN) is presented to construct the debris flow warning system for the watershed. SNN is an unsupervised learning method that has the advantage of dealing with non‐globular clusters, besides presenting computational efficiency. By using SNN, the compiled hydro‐geological data set can easily and meaningfully be clustered into several categories. These categories can then be identified as ‘occurrence’ or ‘no‐occurrence’ of debris flows. To improve the effectiveness of the debris flow warning system, a neural network framework is designed to connect all the clusters produced by the SNN method, whereas the connected weights of the network are adjusted through a supervised learning method. This framework is used and its applicability and practicability for debris flow warning are investigated. The results demonstrate that the proposed SNN + NN model is an efficient and accurate tool for the development of a debris flow warning system. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
22.
Debris flows have caused enormous losses of property and human life in Taiwan during the last two decades. An efficient and reliable method for predicting the occurrence of debris flows is required. The major goal of this study is to explore the impact of the Chi‐Chi earthquake on the occurrence of debris flows by applying the artificial neural network (ANN) that takes both hydrological and geomorphologic influences into account. The Chen‐Yu‐Lan River watershed, which is located in central Taiwan, is chosen for evaluating the critical rainfall triggering debris flows. A total of 1151 data sets were collected for calibrating model parameters with two training strategies. Significant differences before and after the earthquake have been found: (1) The size of landslide area is proportioned to the occurrence of debris flows; (2) the amount of critical rainfall required for triggering debris flows has reduced significantly, about half of the original critical rainfall in the study case; and (3) the frequency of the occurrence of debris flows is largely increased. The overall accuracy of model prediction in testing phase has reached 96·5%; moreover, the accuracy of occurrence prediction is largely increased from 24 to 80% as the network trained with data from before the Chi‐Chi earthquake sets and with data from the lumped before and after the earthquake sets. The results demonstrated that the ANN is capable of learning the complex mechanism of debris flows and producing satisfactory predictions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
23.
Flushing sediment through a reservoir has been practiced successfully and found to be inexpensive in many cases. However, the great amount of water consumed in the flushing operation might affect the water supply. To satisfy the water demand and water consumed in the flushing operation, two models combining the reservoir simulation model and the sediment flushing model are established. In the reservoir simulation model, the genetic algorithm (GA) is used to optimize and determine the flushing operation rule curves. The sediment‐flushing model is developed to estimate the amount of the flushed sediment volume, and the simulated results update the elevation‐storage curve, which can be taken into account in the reservoir simulation model. The models are successfully applied to the Tapu reservoir, which has faced serious sedimentation problems. Based on 36 years historical sequential data, the results show that (i) the simulated flushing operation rule curves model has superior performance, in terms of lower shortage index (SI) and higher flushing efficiency (FE), than that by the original reservoir operation; (ii) the rational and riskless flushing schedule for the Tapu reservoir is suggested to be set within an interval of every 2 or 4 years in the months of May or June. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
24.
Olivine‐bearing symplectites in fractured garnet from eclogite,Moldanubian Zone (Bohemian Massif) – a short‐lived,granulite facies event 
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下载免费PDF全文 Recent petrological studies on high‐pressure (HP)–ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) metamorphic rocks in the Moldanubian Zone, mainly utilizing compositional zoning and solid phase inclusions in garnet from a variety of lithologies, have established a prograde history involving subduction and subsequent granulite facies metamorphism during the Variscan Orogeny. Two temporally separate metamorphic events are developed rather than a single P–T loop for the HP–UHP metamorphism and amphibolite–granulite facies overprint in the Moldanubian Zone. Here further evidence is presented that the granulite facies metamorphism occurred after the HP–UHP rocks had been exhumed to different levels of the middle or upper crust. A medium‐temperature eclogite that is part of a series of tectonic blocks and lenses within migmatites contains a well‐preserved eclogite facies assemblage with omphacite and prograde zoned garnet. Omphacite is partly replaced by a symplectite of diopside + plagioclase + amphibole. Garnet and omphacite equilibria and pseudosection calculations indicate that the HP metamorphism occurred at relatively low temperature conditions of ~600 °C at 2.0–2.2 GPa. The striking feature of the rocks is the presence of garnet porphyroblasts with veins filled by a granulite facies assemblage of olivine, spinel and Ca‐rich plagioclase. These minerals occur as a symplectite forming symmetric zones, a central zone rich in olivine that is separated from the host garnet by two marginal zones consisting of plagioclase with small amounts of spinel. Mineral textures in the veins show that they were first filled mostly by calcic amphibole, which was later transformed into granulite facies assemblages. The olivine‐spinel equilibria and pseudosection calculations indicate temperatures of ~850–900 °C at pressure below 0.7 GPa. The preservation of eclogite facies assemblages implies that the granulite facies overprint was a short‐lived process. The new results point to a geodynamic model where HP–UHP rocks are exhumed to amphibolite facies conditions with subsequent granulite facies heating by mantle‐derived magma in the middle and upper crust. 相似文献
25.
The exemplar‐aided constructor of hyper‐rectangles (EACH) model which simulates human intelligence by learning from experience and adjusting in time, proposed by Salzberb (1991), is presented and modified to strengthen its performance in variable stream flow extension. The modification is intended to resolve the contradiction between building hyper‐rectangles and predictive accuracy in which the number of hyper‐rectangles becomes too large if higher accuracy is required. To explore the feasibility of the modified EACH, a mathematical function is simulated by the model. It is then applied to extend the 10‐day stream flow records according to the nearby rainfall and/or stream flow gauges. The results show that the modified EACH achieves the goal of saving memory space and promoting predictive accuracy, and its performance is better than those of the original EACH and traditional methods. This research suggests that the modified EACH shows considerable promise in stream flow estimation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
26.
Karel Hron Peter Filzmoser Sandra Donevska Eva Fišerová 《Mathematical Geosciences》2013,45(4):487-498
Omitting variables in compositional data analysis may lead to a substantial change in results from that of multivariate statistical analysis. In particular, this is the case for principal component analysis and the compositional biplot, where both the interpretation of loadings and scores of the remaining subcomposition are affected. A stepwise procedure is introduced that allows for a reduction of the original composition to a subcomposition by avoiding a substantial change of the information, like those carried by the compositional biplot. The subcomposition is easier to handle and interpret. Numerical results give evidence of the usefulness of the procedure. 相似文献
27.
The major purpose of this study is to effectively construct artificial neural networks‐based multistep ahead flood forecasting by using hydrometeorological and numerical weather prediction (NWP) information. To achieve this goal, we first compare three mean areal precipitation forecasts: radar/NWP multisource‐derived forecasts (Pr), NWP precipitation forecasts (Pn), and improved precipitation forecasts (Pm) by merging Pr and Pn. The analysis shows that the accuracy of Pm is higher than that of Pr and Pn. The analysis also indicates that the NWP precipitation forecasts do provide relative effectiveness to the merging procedure, particularly for forecast lead time of 4–6 h. In sum, the merged products performed well and captured the main tendency of rainfall pattern. Subsequently, a recurrent neural network (RNN)‐based multistep ahead flood forecasting techniques is produced by feeding in the merged precipitation. The evaluation of 1–6‐h flood forecasting schemes strongly shows that the proposed hydrological model provides accurate and stable flood forecasts in comparison with a conventional case, and significantly improves the peak flow forecasts and the time‐lag problem. An important finding is the hydrologic model responses which do not seem to be sensitive to precipitation predictions in lead times of 1–3 h, whereas the runoff forecasts are highly dependent on predicted precipitation information for longer lead times (4–6 h). Overall, the results demonstrate that accurate and consistent multistep ahead flood forecasting can be obtained by integrating predicted precipitation information into ANNs modelling. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
28.
The first results of the almost one year drop size distribution (DSD) measurement in the Czech Republic are summarised in this study. The ESA-ESTEC 2D videodistrometer was used to measure the rain drop parameters. The average DSD is shown to be of the gamma type. One minute DSDs were evaluated to test the accuracy of analytical DSD models. Parameters of gamma distribution and exponential distribution functions were evaluated for the whole data set as well as for the various rain rate intervals. Regression technique and the method of moments were applied to estimate the parameters of DSD. It is shown that the parameter value strongly depends on the method of computation as well as on the rain type. Its average value is about 0.59 for the average (smooth) one minute DSD while an average value of un-smoothed DSD is 11.0 (moment method) or 5.4 (regression technique). The Joss's shape parameter and the Tokay-Short's parameter CS estimating roughly the rain type are also discussed (if CS>1, the event should be convective). The tendency of increasing numerical value of the CS parameter with the increasing rain rate was observed (the DSDs were distributed into classes respecting the rain rate value) and thus the idea of the convectivity occurrence bounded with the higher CS parameter value was supported. The study also compares the parameters of the average DSD with the averages of parameter values of all 4 183 one minute DSDs. 相似文献
29.
This paper presents a new approach to improving real‐time reservoir operation. The approach combines two major procedures: the genetic algorithm (GA) and the adaptive network‐based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The GA is used to search the optimal reservoir operating histogram based on a given inflow series, which can be recognized as the base of input–output training patterns in the next step. The ANFIS is then built to create the fuzzy inference system, to construct the suitable structure and parameters, and to estimate the optimal water release according to the reservoir depth and inflow situation. The practicability and effectiveness of the approach proposed is tested on the operation of the Shihmen reservoir in Taiwan. The current M‐5 operating rule curves of the Shihmen reservoir are also evaluated. The simulation results demonstrate that this new approach, in comparison with the M‐5 rule curves, has superior performance with regard to the prediction of total water deficit and generalized shortage index (GSI). Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
30.
Karel Hron Peter Filzmoser Patrice de Caritat Eva Fišerová Alžběta Gardlo 《Mathematical Geosciences》2017,49(6):797-814
The log ratio methodology converts compositional data, such as concentrations of chemical elements in a rock, from their original Aitchison geometry to interpretable real orthonormal coordinates, thereby allowing meaningful statistical processing and visualization. However, it must be taken into account that the original concentrations can be flawed by detection limit or imprecision problems that can severely affect the resulting coordinates. This paper aims to construct such orthonormal log ratio coordinates, called weighted pivot coordinates, that capture the relevant relative information about an original component and treat the redundant information in a controlled manner. Theoretical developments are supported by a thorough simulation study. Weighted pivot coordinates are then applied to the geochemical mapping of catchment outlet sediments from the National Geochemical Survey of Australia illustrating their advantage over possible alternatives. 相似文献