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1.
This study proposes a sediment‐budget model to predict the temporal variation of debris volume stored in a debris‐flow prone watershed. The sediment‐budget is dominated by shallow landslides and debris outflow. The basin topography and the debris volume stored in the source area of the debris‐flow prone watershed help evaluating its debris‐flow susceptibility. The susceptibility model is applied to the Tungshih area of central western Taiwan. The importance of the debris volume in predicting debris‐flow susceptibility is reflected in the standardized coefficients of the proposed statistical discriminant model. The high prediction rate (0·874) for the occurrence of debris flows justifies the capability of the proposed susceptibility models to predict the occurrence of debris flows. This model is then used to evaluate the temporal evolution of the debris‐flow susceptibility index. The analysis results show that the numbers of watershed which are classified as a debris‐flow group correspond well to storage of sediment at different time periods. These numbers are 10 before the occurrence of Chi‐Chi earthquake, 13 after the occurrence of Chi‐Chi earthquake, 16 after the occurrence of landslides induced by Typhoon Mindulle (Typhoon M), and 14 after the occurrence of debris flows induced by Typhoon M. It indicates that the occurrence of 7·6 Chi‐Chi earthquake had significant impact on the debris flow occurrence during subsequent typhoons. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
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3.
The purpose of this study is to analyze variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow （critical rainfall for debris flow triggering） after the ML 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan in 1999. Two study sites with different geological conditions were surveyed in the earthquake area. Streambed surveys were conducted to continuously monitor debris flows between 1999 and 2006. During the 7-year study period, every debris flow event was identified, and the streambed characterized. Results show that the rainfall threshold for debris flow was remarkably lower just after the Chi-Chi Earthquake, but gradually recovered. To date, this rainfall threshold is still lower than the original level prior to the earthquake. This variability in rainfall threshold is closely related to the mount of sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow, which increased rapidly due to landslides resulting from the earthquake. With the increase in sediment material, the rainfall threshold was lowered severely during the first year following the Chi-Chi earthquake. However, heavy rainfalls mobilized the sediment material, causing debris flows and transporting sediment downstream. With the decrease in sediment material, the rainfall threshold recovered gradually over time. Furthermore, debris flows occurred only in the subbasins that had sufficient sediment material to cause significant movement. Hence, these results confirm that the sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow is a crucial component of the rainfall threshold for debris flow.  相似文献   

4.
The debris deposits at the bottom of very steep natural channels and streams in high mountain areas can be mobilized by runoff, triggering a water–sediment mixture flow known as debris flow. The routing of debris flow through human settlements can cause damage to civil structures and loss of human lives. The prediction of such an event, or the runoff discharge that triggers it, assumes an interest in risk analyses and the planning of defence measures. The object of this study is to find a method to determine the critical runoff value that triggers debris flow as a result of channel‐bed failure. Historical and rainfall data on 30 debris flows that occurred in six watersheds of the Dolomites (north‐eastern Italian Alps) were collected from different sources. Field investigations at the six sites, together with the hydrologic response to the rainfalls that triggered the events, were performed to obtain a realistic scenario of the formation of the debris flow there occurred. Field observations include a survey along the channel of the triggering reach of debris flow, with measurements of the channel slope and cross‐section and sampling of debris deposits for grain size distribution. Simulated runoff discharge values based on the rainfall recorded by pluviometers were then compared with values obtained through experimental criteria on the initiation and formation of debris flow by bed failure. The results are discussed to provide a plausible physical‐based method for the prediction of the triggering of debris flow by channel‐bed failure. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
台湾集集地震近场地震动的上盘效应   总被引：32，自引：12，他引：32       下载免费PDF全文
俞言祥  高孟潭 《地震学报》2001,24(6):615-621
1999年9月21日（当地时间）台湾集集7.6级地震是一个逆断层型地震．用回归分析法对台湾集集地震的加速度峰值数据进行分析，得出了这次地震的水平与垂直向的加速度峰值衰减关系．从残差分布上看，位于断层上盘和下盘上的加速度峰值与从衰减关系所得到的结果相比存在不同的系统偏差，断层上盘地表的加速度峰值较高，而下盘地表的加速度峰值较低．从这次地震的加速度峰值分布等值线图上也可以看出，加速度峰值的分布相对于断层呈现明显的不对称性，上盘衰减较慢而下盘衰减较快．在近断层强地面运动研究、地震危险性分析、设定地震研究与震害预测等工作中，应考虑可能地震的震源机制特点，以便使所用的衰减模型更能反映不同地震环境地区的地震动分布特征．   相似文献   

6.
１ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＢａｓｅｄｏｎｔｈｅｍｏｕｎｔａｉｎｓｔｒｅａｍｃｌａｓｉｆｉｃａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｈａｚａｒｄｚｏｎｅｍａｐｐｉｎｇ（Ｗａｎｇｅｔａｌ,１９９６;ａｎｄＷａｎｇｅｔａｌ,１９９８）,ａｓｗｅｌａｓｔｈｅｉｎｖｅｓｔｉｇａｔｉｏ...  相似文献   

7.
ABSTRACT

A forecasting model is developed using a hybrid approach of artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple regression analysis (MRA) to predict the total typhoon rainfall and groundwater-level change in the Zhuoshui River basin. We used information from the raingauge stations in eastern Taiwan and open source typhoon data to build the ANN model for forecasting the total rainfall and the groundwater level during a typhoon event; then we revised the predictive values using MRA. As a result, the average accuracy improved up to 80% when the hybrid model of ANN and MRA was applied, even where insufficient data were available for model training. The outcome of this research can be applied to forecasts of total rainfall and groundwater-level change before a typhoon event reaches the Zhuoshui River basin once the typhoon has made landfall on the east coast of Taiwan.  相似文献   

8.
The main purpose of this study is to develop a new type of artificial neural network based model for constructing a debris flow warning system. The Chen‐Eu‐Lan river basin, which is located in Central Taiwan, is assigned as the study area. The creek is one of the most well‐known debris flow areas where several damaging debris flows have been reported in the last two decades. The hydrological and geological data, which might have great influence on the occurrence of debris flows, are first collected and analysed, then, the shared near neighbours neural network (SNN + NN) is presented to construct the debris flow warning system for the watershed. SNN is an unsupervised learning method that has the advantage of dealing with non‐globular clusters, besides presenting computational efficiency. By using SNN, the compiled hydro‐geological data set can easily and meaningfully be clustered into several categories. These categories can then be identified as ‘occurrence’ or ‘no‐occurrence’ of debris flows. To improve the effectiveness of the debris flow warning system, a neural network framework is designed to connect all the clusters produced by the SNN method, whereas the connected weights of the network are adjusted through a supervised learning method. This framework is used and its applicability and practicability for debris flow warning are investigated. The results demonstrate that the proposed SNN + NN model is an efficient and accurate tool for the development of a debris flow warning system. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
台湾9.21集集地震考察兼论强震发震断层   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
彭阜南  叶银灿 《地震地质》2004,26(4):576-585
1999年9月21日,台湾中部山麓带发生了M7.3的大地震,震源深度为8km,财产损失及人员伤亡是百年来台湾许多地震中损失及伤亡最大的1次,其震级也是台湾本岛陆上所发生的地震级别最大的。震源机制属低角度逆冲断层成因,余震在平面上围绕着北港高基底作半圆状分布,在垂向上,则分布在逆冲断层的上盘。与此相应,地面变形及上部结构物的破坏,以车笼埔发震断层上盘最为激烈,下盘几乎不受影响。此外,地震断裂的北端,水平位移量高达9.8m,垂直抬升达10m,比主震区要大;其地面加速度峰值,亦高达水平为502gal,垂直为519gal。这些特点表明,地震是受到地下深处侏罗型叠瓦状构造的控制。此外,3个诱发地震中心均受当地的地质构造与地貌条件的控制。文中还叙述了震害及工程结构物破坏的特点,尤其是水工结构物的震害  相似文献   

10.
Abstract

The accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time.  相似文献   

11.
The relationships between the spectral characteristics of earthquake ground motions and those of micro‐tremors are investigated using the observed data from a dense strong‐motion network consisting of 108 stations in the Yun‐Li, Chia‐Yi and Tai‐Nan areas in southwestern Taiwan. Many high‐quality recordings, including those of the 921 Chi‐Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), the 1022 Chia‐Yi mainshock (ML=6.4), the 1022 major aftershock (ML=6.0), as well as some weak motion events are selected to evaluate site responses. Microtremor measurements are also performed at most ground motion stations. With many stations in the area located on an alluvium structure, however, it is difficult to find good reference stations on rock sites, which therefore necessitates the calculation of single‐station H/V ratios. The predominant frequencies obtained from H/V ratios are consistent with those from spectral ratios. The site characteristics between the strong and weak events are different, however. This implies that a nonlinear effect probably occurred with the strong‐motion events. The main peak in the H/V spectra of the microtremors is in good agreement with the first peak obtained from the spectra of earthquake ground motions. It is reasonable to claim that the main peak reflects the deep underground structure. On the basis of the H/V ratios of the microtremors, it is concluded that the lower predominant frequencies appear in the plain area, while the higher values are near the mountainous region. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract The Chi‐chi earthquake (MS = 7.7), which occurred in September 1999, seriously damaged central Taiwan. Approximately 2 years later (July 2001), the Toraji typhoon brought a heavy rainstorm (650 mm rain/day) and triggered widespread landslides in central Taiwan and parts of eastern Taiwan. Approximately 10 000 Chi‐chi earthquake‐induced landslides and 6000 Toraji typhoon‐related mass movements were delineated in an area of 2400 km2 using Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT; French earth resource satellite) images. The landslide distribution could be closely related to the distribution of peak ground acceleration registered during the Chi‐chi earthquake. The study area was composed of Tertiary sedimentary and metamorphic rocks, whose age and induration increased eastward. The earthquake‐induced landslides were mostly distributed in the region between the Chelungpu Fault and the Lishan Fault to the east, whereas they were few in the region east of the Lishan Fault. The Toraji typhoon in 2001 severely damaged both regions that had been shattered by the Chi‐chi earthquake in 1999. The occurrence of earthquake‐induced landslides can be correlated with epicentral distance, and their occurrence has more influence from the rock type than from the ground motion.  相似文献   

13.
A rainfall‐runoff model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) is presented for the Blue Nile catchment. The best geometry of the ANN rainfall‐runoff model in terms of number of hidden layers and nodes is identified through a sensitivity analysis. The Blue Nile catchment (about 300 000 km2) in the Nile basin is selected here as a case study. The catchment is classified into seven subcatchments, and the mean areal precipitation over those subcatchments is computed as a main input to the ANN model. The available daily data (1992–99) are divided into two sets for model calibration (1992–96) and for validation (1997–99). The results of the ANN model are compared with one of physical distributed rainfall‐runoff models that apply hydraulic and hydrologic fundamental equations in a grid base. The results over the case study area and the comparative analysis with the physically based distributed model show that the ANN technique has great potential in simulating the rainfall‐runoff process adequately. Because the available record used in the calibration of the ANN model is too short, the ANN model is biased compared with the distributed model, especially for high flows. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The largest and most disastrous earthquake in Taiwan (Mw: 7·3) in the 20th century, the Chi‐Chi earthquake, hit central Taiwan at 01:47 local time on September 21, 1999. The groundwater level changes were rapid at that time. Studies have found that the rapid change in groundwater levels was a co‐seismic phenomenon. This work analyzes the possibility that the abnormal change in groundwater levels may have occurred before the earthquake. Three well stations with a total of five wells are considered. They are all near the Che‐Lung‐Pu fault, which caused the Chi‐Chi earthquake. The time series decomposition method was applied to decompose the seasonal groundwater level, the trend in groundwater levels, and the period of the change in the groundwater level. Residual groundwater levels were found by subtracting the determined seasonal, trend and period data from corresponding data for the original groundwater level. The computed residual water levels in July, August and September of 1999, were transformed into a frequency spectrum by a Fourier method. Additionally, the effects of barometric pressures on the groundwater level changes were also evaluated. Analytical results show that the spectral density functions of the irregular groundwater level in the confined aquifer at the Chu‐Shan well in September behaved differently from those in July and August. We posit that a pre‐seismic hydrogeological anomaly may have existed before the Chi‐Chi earthquake, and can be considered in future studies of anomalies associated with earthquakes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Post-fire debris flows represent one of the most erosive consequences associated with increasing wildfire severity and investigations into their downstream impacts have been limited. Recent advances have linked existing hydrogeomorphic models to predict potential impacts of post-fire erosion at watershed scales on downstream water resources. Here we address two key limitations in current models: (1) accurate predictions of post-fire debris flow volumes in the absence of triggering storm rainfall intensities and (2) understanding controls on grain sizes produced by post-fire debris flows. We compiled and analysed a novel dataset of depositional volumes and grain size distributions (GSDs) for 59 post-fire debris flows across the Intermountain West (IMW) collected via fieldwork and from the literature. We first evaluated the utility of existing models for post-fire debris flow volume prediction, which were largely developed for Southern California. We then constructed a new post-fire debris flow volume prediction model for the IMW using a combination of Random Forest modelling and regression analysis. We found topography and burn severity to be important variables, and that the percentage of pre-fire soil organic matter was an essential predictor variable. Our model was also capable of predicting debris flow volumes without data for the triggering storm, suggesting that rainfall may be more important as a presence/absence predictor, rather than a scaling variable. We also constructed the first models that predict the median, 16th percentile, and 84th percentile grain sizes, as well as boulder size, produced by post-fire debris flows. These models demonstrate consistent landscape controls on debris flow GSDs that are related to land cover, physical and chemical weathering, and hillslope sediment transport processes. This work advances our ability to predict how post-fire sediment pulses are transported through watersheds. Our models allow for improved pre- and post-fire risk assessments across diverse ranges of watersheds in the IMW.  相似文献   

16.
The Chi‐Chi earthquake (MW = 7.6) took place in central western Taiwan in 1999. The earthquake caused reactivation of the Chelungpu Fault and resulted in 100‐km‐long surface ruptures. The fault strikes mostly north–south to NNE–SSW; however, the northern tip of the southern segment of the surface ruptures rotates clockwise to define an east–west trend, then jumps to a shorter NNW‐trending rupture. The largest vertical displacement is recorded in the Shihkang area of the Shihkang–Shangchi Fault Zone, where vertical slips are up to 8–10 m. The Shihkang–Shangchi Fault Zone displays a complex fault pattern as a linkage damage zone between two fault segments with the greatest concentration of faults and fractures. Our new interpretation, based on recent published geometric, kinematic, and geophysical studies on the Chi‐Chi earthquake fault, suggests that the Shihkang–Shangchi Fault Zone is not a simple termination zone, but may be an ‘overstep zone’ or a ‘transfer zone’. Slip analysis along the surface ruptures indicates that they are composed of three fault segments and the amount of slip partly depends on the intersection angle between slip direction and fault strike. Our numerical modeling for the area indicates that Coulomb stress changes are mainly concentrated on tips and bends of the surface ruptures. Slip patterns indicate that the fault propagates toward the northeast. Therefore, this study suggests high potential for future earthquake activity along the unruptured Shangchi segment. Hence, future geohazard studies should focus on the Shangchi segment to evaluate potential earthquakes, determine recurrence intervals, and reduce future earthquake hazards.  相似文献   

17.
Many significantly strong earthquakes have occurred over the years in Taiwan, which have caused tremendous damage to primary and middle school buildings; the 921 Chi‐Chi earthquake was particularly devastating. According to statistics, 786 schools (1,958 classrooms) were damaged on September 21, 1999 during this earthquake event. The devastation showed that a lack of seismic performance is a common problem for existing school buildings in Taiwan. Therefore, the retrofit of existing school buildings has become an urgent issue in the prevention of possible damage in the future. The retrofit technique of adding sandwich columns to partition brick walls is proposed in this paper, and the feasibility of the proposed method was verified by in situ pushover tests of two real school buildings, one without and one with retrofit. The experimental and analytical results show that the sandwich column itself contributes significantly to the seismic capacity of the examined school building. Moreover, the analytical results yielded conservative capacity curves when compared with the experimental results. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
This paper provides a comparison of gauge and radar precipitation data sources during an extreme hydrological event. November–December 2006 was selected as a time period of intense rainfall and large river flows for the Severn Uplands, an upland catchment in the United Kingdom. A comparison between gauge and radar precipitation time‐series records for the event indicated discrepancies between data sources, particularly in areas of higher elevation. The HEC‐HMS rainfall‐runoff model was selected to assess the accuracy of the precipitation to simulate river flows for the extreme event. Gauge, radar and gauge‐corrected radar rainfall were used as model inputs. Universal cokriging was used to geostatistically interpolate gauge data with radar and elevation data as covariates. This interpolated layer was used to calculate the mean‐field bias and correct the radar composites. Results indicated that gauge‐ and gauge‐corrected radar‐driven models replicated flows adequately for the extreme event. Gauge‐corrected flow predictions produced an increase in flow prediction accuracy when compared with the raw radar, yet predictions were comparative in accuracy to those using the interpolated gauge network. Subsequent investigations suggested this was due to an adequate spatial and temporal resolution of the precipitation gauge network within the Severn Uplands. Results suggested that the six rain gauges could adequately represent precipitation variability of the Severn Uplands to predict flows at an approximately equal accuracy to that obtained by radar. Temporally, radar produced an increase in flow prediction accuracy in mountainous reaches once the gauge time step was in excessive of an hourly interval. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Slopes in fjord environments of Iceland are prone to debris‐flow initiation, responding to a wide variety of meteorological triggering factors, such as rain on snow, rapid snowmelt, long‐lasting rainfall or intense rainfall. If all fjord regions have similar debris flows with regards to their magnitude, their meteorological control is diverse both in space and in time. Debris flows in Northwest Iceland are triggered mostly by rain‐on‐snow and long‐lasting rainfall, while snowmelt is more characteristic in North Iceland, and rainfall has a clear impact in East Iceland. Most debris‐flow events occur on a single slope, and only a few are recorded at the same time in different regions. Observations of the threshold values underline the diversity of debris‐flow initiation, occurring with huge amounts of sudden water supply as well as with very moderate ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the ground motion characteristics of the Chi‐Chi earthquake (21 September 1999) as well as the interpretation of structural damage due to this earthquake. Over 300 strong motion records were collected from the strong motion network of Taiwan for this earthquake. A lot of near‐field ground motion data were collected. They provide valuable information on the study of ground motion characteristics of pulse‐like near‐field ground motions as well as fault displacement. This study includes: attenuation of ground motion both in PGA and spectral amplitude, principal direction, elastic and inelastic response analysis of a SDOF system subjected to near‐field ground motion collected from this event. The distribution of spectral acceleration and spectral velocity along the Chelungpu fault is discussed. Based on the mode decomposition method the intrinsic mode function of ground acceleration of this earthquake is examined. A long‐period wave with large amplitude was observed in most of the near‐source ground acceleration. The seismic demand from the recorded near‐field ground motion is also investigated with an evaluation of seismic design criteria of Taiwan Building Code. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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