Data recorded by the Italian Telemetered Seismic Network (ITSN) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) have been widely used in recent years to image slab structures and to find evidence for active processes along the Italian Peninsula. However, the use of seismic data for geostructural purposes may be affected by the well-known trade-off between earthquake location and seismic-velocity parameters. Furthermore, the confidence ellipse predicted by standard procedures may be inadequate for the representation of the probable error of a computed localization. This paper evaluates the probable errors on the hypocentre determinations of the seismic events recorded by the ITSN, using a Monte Carlo method. We compute synthetic arrival times using a 1-D velocity model appropriate as an average for the Italian area. The hypocentres used are all those recorded by the ITSN during the period January 1992 to March 1994 (1972 events). Station locations are those of the current ITSN configuration. The synthetic arrival times are perturbed with a Gaussian distribution of errors and input to ING's standard hypocentral location procedure, but using crustal velocities differing by 10 per cent from those used to generate them. Each simulation is repeated at least 30 times. Average absolute shifts of hypocentres are assessed in grid cells of linear dimension 33 km covering the whole Italian region. For regions within the ITSN, shifts are typically 5–10 km in location and up to 20 km in depth. However, for offshore and coastal regions, they are much greater: 50 km or more in both location and depth (far exceeding the equivalent uncertainties quoted by ING bulletins). Possible consequences of this are highlighted by producing a cross-section of subcrustal hypocentres from the Adriatic to the Tyrrhenian Sea, where the large uncertainty in depth precludes any confident interpretation of dipping tectonic features. 相似文献
An analysis of the historical and cultural context of a large number of literary works illuminates the concept of landscape, a recurrent theme in contemporary humanistic geography. In this context, the works of Ippolito Nievo present an opportunity to look closer at the socio-economic circumstances of his time while also offering suggestive interpretative elements about the attitudes held concerning the wetlands of the lower Friulan plain. 相似文献
The geology of the mainland and offshore of Sicily is illustrated by a few geologic sections and seismic profiles across the late Cenozoic orogenic belt of central and western Sicily and across the Sardinia Channel and Sicily Straits. This belt is the result of several tectonic events. Deformation involved mainly the sedimentary cover of the old African continental margin characterized by a broad basinal domain, flanked along its external (southern) margin by a shallow-water carbonate platform attached to Africa in the Triassic. Compressional deformation started in the more internal basinal rock assemblages overlying a thinned crust. The most important structural characteristic of the early phase of thrusting is the duplex pile forming the bulk of the chain in Central Western Sicily. The structure consists of a basal allochthon, made up of Permian to Middle Triassic layers, an intermediate duplex wedge, composed of competent Mesozoic carbonates, and a roof complex, including Upper Mesozoic-Lower Tertiary less competent rocks. Large-scale clockwise rotation of the thrusts accompanied transpressional movements in the hinterland during the Pliocene. Right oblique reverse faults modified the previous tectonic contacts between the allochthons in the hinterland zones. Contemporaneous south-directed imbrications affected the southern external areas, progressively incorporating foreland and piggyback basins. Development of the Gela Thrust System appears to be linked to the transpressional event; its accretion is also related to contemporaneous underthrusting at deeper levels of Mesozoic carbonate substratum. The older buried thrust sheets were pushed up to the surface breaching the deformed Tertiary cover of the Gela TS. Northwards in the belt post-Messinian normal growth faults opened half graben whose sedimentary fill underwent structural inversion. Alternation of extension and compression tectonics characterizes the Sicilian continental margin in the last million years. 相似文献
Within the framework of a study of the seismicity of the Aniene Valley (Central Italy), we analysed the medieval earthquakes of Subiaco (1216, 1227, 1299), the largest events reported for the area. Our main goal was to investigate some doubtful events reported in earthquake catalogues and, as such, currently utilised for seismic hazard estimates. A careful screening of the oldest available sources and their filiation pattern up to the present pointed out the uncertainty on the date and nature of these phenomena. A multidisciplinary approach based on the joint analysis of archaeological, geomorphologic and historical evidence allowed us to propose new interpretations concerning these events and their significance for the assessment of seismic hazard in the Aniene Valley. The main conclusion is that the dates of the 1216 and 1227 events are fairly unsupported. In particular, the 1216 earthquake could be dated back to between AD 1159 and 1181. 相似文献
A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.
Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.
A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].
Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.
New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism. 相似文献