Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments     

Royce A. Francis  Stefanie M. Falconi  Roshanak Nateghi  Seth D. Guikema 《Climatic change》2011,106(1):31-55

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.  相似文献   

Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Laura Geselbracht  Kathleen Freeman  Eugene Kelly  Doria R. Gordon  Francis E. Putz 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):35-57

The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km²?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination.  相似文献   

Migrating magmatism in a continental arc: Geodynamics of the Eastern Mediterranean revisited   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yener Eyuboglu  M. Santosh  Francis O. Dudas  Sun-Lin Chung  Enver Akaryal&#x; 《Journal of Geodynamics》2011,52(1):2-15

  相似文献   

A global context for megadroughts in monsoon Asia during the past millennium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ashish Sinha  Lowell Stott  Max Berkelhammer  Hai Cheng  R. Lawrence Edwards  Brendan Buckley  Mark Aldenderfer  Manfred Mudelsee 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(1-2):47-62

Proxy reconstructions of precipitation from central India, north-central China, and southern Vietnam reveal a series of monsoon droughts during the mid 14th–15th centuries that each lasted for several years to decades. These monsoon megadroughts have no analog during the instrumental period. They occurred in the context of widespread thermal and hydrologic climate anomalies marking the onset of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and appear to have played a major role in shaping significant regional societal changes at that time. New tree ring-width based reconstructions of monsoon variability suggest episodic and widespread reoccurrences of monsoon megadroughts continued throughout the LIA. Although the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in monsoon variability, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that these megadroughts were associated with anomalous sea surface temperature anomalies that were solely the result of ENSO-like variability in the tropical Pacific. Instead, the causative mechanisms of these megadroughts may reside in protracted changes in the synoptic-scale monsoon climatology of the Indian Ocean. Today, the intra-seasonal monsoon variability is dominated by ‘active’ and the ‘break’ spells – two distinct oscillatory modes of monsoon that have radically different synoptic scale circulation and precipitation patterns. We suggest that protracted locking of the monsoon into the “break-dominated” mode – a mode that favors reduced precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and SE Asia and enhanced precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean, may have caused these exceptional droughts. Impetus for periodic locking of the monsoon into this mode may have been provided by cooler temperatures at the extratropical latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere which forced the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) further southward in the Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

Transition from shoshonitic to adakitic magmatism in the eastern Pontides,NE Turkey: Implications for slab window melting     

Yener Eyuboglu  Sun-Lin Chung  M. Santosh  Francis O. Dudas  Enver Akaryalı 《Gondwana Research》2011,19(2):413-429

The formation of the eastern Pontides orogenic belt has been widely assigned to a northward subduction of the Neotethyan oceanic slab during the late Mesozoic–Cenozoic. Here we provide an alternate model based on new geological, geochemical and isotopic data. The magmatic activity in the far south of the belt started in the early Campanian with shoshonitic trachyandesites and associated pyroclastics. This sequence is covered by the late Campanian–early Maastrichtian reefal limestones and another stage of high-K volcanism represented by analcimized leucite-rich ultrapotassic rocks of the Maastrichtian–early Paleocene (?) ages. The shoshonitic and ultrapotassic rocks, with K₂O contents ranging from 0.26 to 6.95 wt.%, display broadly similar rare earth and multi-element distribution patterns. Both rock types are enriched in LILE and LREE and depleted in HFSE (Nb, Ta and Ti), suggesting a subduction-enriched mantle source for the magma generation. Subsequently, during the late Paleocene, a stage of acidic magmatism (SiO₂ of 53.25–73.61 wt.%) that shows adakitic geochemical characteristics including high Sr/Y (46–416) and La/Yb (11–51) and low Y (2.6–12.2 ppm), is documented characterized by melting of a mafic source such as the MORB crust with garnet in the residue. The adakitic magmatism began at ~ 56 Ma and migrated toward the north through time, culminating with porphyritic andesites (~ 47 Ma) that were emplaced in the Gumushane–Bayburt line and its vicinity. North of this line, coeval magmas show typical calc-alkaline nature and continued to develop toward further north until the middle to late Eocene. Based on the spatial and temporal variations in the magmas generated in the eastern Pontides orogenic belt, we propose a new geodynamic model to explain the tectonomagmatic evolution of these rocks and correlate the adakitic magmatism to ridge subduction and slab window process within a south-dipping subduction zone. Our model is in contrast to the previous proposals which envisage partial melting or delamination of thickened lower continental crust due to the collision in the south during the Paleocene–Eocene.  相似文献   

Seismic Evidence for the α-β Quartz Transition beneath Taiwan from Vp/Vs Tomography     

KUO-CHEN Hao  WU Francis  JENKINS Davi  MECHIE James  ROECKER Steven  WANG Chien-Ying  HUANG Bor-Shuh 《地质学报》2013,87(Z1):286-286

  相似文献   

Frasnian rugose and tabulate corals from the eastern Taurus (Kozan region,Turkey)     

Marie Coen-Aubert  Olivier Monod  Yves Plusquellec  Francis Tourneur 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(1-2):68-93

A section near the Kilgen Lake (Adana Province) has yielded a fauna of rugose and tabulate corals including Disphyllum cf. rugosum (Wedekind, 1922), D. cf. curtum Hill, 1954, Wapitiphyllum sp., Thamnopora sp., and Alveolites sp. This coral assemblage is consistent with the previous Frasnian age assigned to the limestones of the Gümü?ali Formation. The rather well-preserved material provides new data on the structure and microstructure of Disphyllum and allows to describe in Thamnopora unusual calicinal morphology (septal ridges, median teeth, and pseudopercula) as well as new structures linked to the lateral increase (basal low wall, apical cul-de-sac).  相似文献   

Migrations de charnières et vecteurs de déplacements sur des modèles analogiques de plis superposés     

Francis Odonne 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(2):139-146

Résumé

La modélisation analogique d’une superposition de plissements dans une série sédimentaire stratifiée, représentée ici par un multicouche de paraffine et graisse, fait apparaître le rôle déterminant de la géométrie des plis initiaux. Les plis ouverts peuvent évoluer sous l’effet de la seconde compression :

- Si les directions des axes de ces plis sont parallèles à la seconde compression, on verra apparaître des plis superposés.

- Si les directions des axes sont obliques à celle-ci, on observera la réutilisation des plis qui seront alors réorientés grâce à la migration de leur charnière. En fin de déformation la ou les familles de plis présentes dans le modèle ne sont perpendiculaires ni à la première ni à la seconde direction de compression.  相似文献   

Pb,Hf and Nd isotope compositions of the two Réunion volcanoes (Indian Ocean): A tale of two small-scale mantle “blobs”?     

Delphine Bosch  Janne Blichert-Toft  Frédéric Moynier  Bruce K. Nelson  Philippe Telouk  Pierre-Yves Gillot  Francis Albarède 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,265(3-4):748-765

Pb, Hf, Nd and Sr isotopes of basaltic lavas from the two Réunion Island volcanoes are reported in order to examine the origin of the sources feeding these volcanoes and to detect possible changes through time. Samples, chosen to cover the whole lifetime of the two volcanoes (from 2 Ma to present), yield a chemically restricted (compared to OIB lavas) but complex distribution. Réunion plume isotopic characteristics have been defined on the basis of the composition of uncontaminated shield-building lavas from the Piton de la Fournaise volcano. The average ?_Nd, ?_Hf, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb isotope ratios calculated for this component are + 4.4, + 9.1, 0.70411, 18.97, 15.59 and 39.03, respectively. In Pb–Pb isotope space, each volcano defines a distinct linear trend but slight variations are also detected within the various volcanic sequences. The Piton des Neiges volcano yields a distinct and significantly more scattered isotopic distribution than Piton de la Fournaise for both Pb, Hf and Nd isotope tracers. A principal component analysis of the Pb isotope data from Piton de la Fournaise reveals a major contribution of the C and EM-1 components (with a clear Dupal flavor) as main components for the modern Réunion plume. The same components have been identified for Piton des Neiges but with a stronger participation of a depleted mantle component and a weaker EM-1 contribution. The compositional change of the lavas erupted by the Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes is attributed to the impingement of two small-scale blobs of plume material at the base of the Réunion lithosphere. Compared to other hot-spots worldwide, in particular Hawaii and Kerguelen, magmas beneath Réunion are generated from a considerably more homogeneous, compositionally more primitive plume higher in ²⁰⁶Pb. Although shallow-level contamination processes have been locally detected they did not alter significantly the composition of the plume magmas. This is tentatively attributed to mantle dynamics producing small, high-velocity blobs that ascend rapidly through the lithosphere, and to the lack of a well-developed magma chamber at depth in the lithosphere.  相似文献   

Elastic and anelastic anomalies in (Ca,Sr)TiO₃ perovskites: Analogue behaviour for silicate perovskites     

J.N. Walsh  P.A. Taylor  A. Buckley  T.W. Darling  J. Schreuer  M.A. Carpenter   《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2008,167(1-2):110-117

Values of bulk modulus (K), shear modulus (G) and mechanical quality factor (Q) have been determined for polycrystalline samples across the CaTiO₃ (CST0)–SrTiO₃ (CST100) solid solution by resonant ultrasound spectroscopy. Because of similarities with low frequency elastic and anelastic anomalies due to twin wall motion reported in previous studies, a working hypothesis is developed in which dissipation processes are interpreted in terms of twin wall displacements. At high temperatures in CST50 the stability field of the I4/mcm structure is marked by the disappearance of all resonance peaks (superattenuation). This is attributed to anelastic domain wall sliding. At room temperature the I4/mcm phase of CST70 and CST80 has values of G which are lower than those of cubic or orthorhombic phases, and a concomitant drop in Q is interpreted as implying that the domain wall pinning process reported elsewhere to occur below 400–450 K is only partial. A similar drop in G and Q was found in CST95 below the transition at 238 K. The I4/mcm ↔ Pbcm transition in CST70 at 230 K is marked by an abrupt increase in Q, suggesting that mobile twins in crystals with the I4/mcm structure become effectively immobile in antiferroelectric crystals with the Pbcm structure. The I4/mcm ↔ Pnma transition in CST50 is marked by a similarly abrupt increase in Q, consistent with twin walls becoming effectively immobile also in crystals with the Pnma structure. A fall in Q below 800 K in CST0, however, could imply that a degree of twin wall mobility might develop in Pnma crystals if the tetragonal spontaneous strain departs significantly from zero. The remarkable attenuation behaviour of crystals with the I4/mcm structure at the relatively low stress conditions which apply during resonances of a parallelepiped with edge dimensions of 2–4 mm, is consistent with the view that a characteristic signature for tetragonal CaSiO₃ in the Earth's lower mantle should be a marked attenuation of seismic waves.  相似文献