A global context for megadroughts in monsoon Asia during the past millennium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ashish Sinha  Lowell Stott  Max Berkelhammer  Hai Cheng  R. Lawrence Edwards  Brendan Buckley  Mark Aldenderfer  Manfred Mudelsee 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(1-2):47-62

Proxy reconstructions of precipitation from central India, north-central China, and southern Vietnam reveal a series of monsoon droughts during the mid 14th–15th centuries that each lasted for several years to decades. These monsoon megadroughts have no analog during the instrumental period. They occurred in the context of widespread thermal and hydrologic climate anomalies marking the onset of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and appear to have played a major role in shaping significant regional societal changes at that time. New tree ring-width based reconstructions of monsoon variability suggest episodic and widespread reoccurrences of monsoon megadroughts continued throughout the LIA. Although the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in monsoon variability, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that these megadroughts were associated with anomalous sea surface temperature anomalies that were solely the result of ENSO-like variability in the tropical Pacific. Instead, the causative mechanisms of these megadroughts may reside in protracted changes in the synoptic-scale monsoon climatology of the Indian Ocean. Today, the intra-seasonal monsoon variability is dominated by ‘active’ and the ‘break’ spells – two distinct oscillatory modes of monsoon that have radically different synoptic scale circulation and precipitation patterns. We suggest that protracted locking of the monsoon into the “break-dominated” mode – a mode that favors reduced precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and SE Asia and enhanced precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean, may have caused these exceptional droughts. Impetus for periodic locking of the monsoon into this mode may have been provided by cooler temperatures at the extratropical latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere which forced the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) further southward in the Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

Analyses of Bering Sea bottom-trawl surveys in Norton Sound: absence of regime shift effect on epifauna and demersal fish   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hamazaki  Toshihide; Fair  Lowell; Watson  Leslie; Brennan  Elisabeth 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(8):1597-1602

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Reply to comments by Carlson et al., (2009) on “Radiocarbon deglaciation chronology of the Thunder Bay,Ontario area and implications for ice sheet retreat patterns”     

Thomas V. Lowell  Timothy G. Fisher 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(23-24):2548-2550

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Biological monitoring of fish: Edited by C. H. Hocutt and J. R. Stauffer,Jr.D. C. Heath & Co., Lexington,Massachusetts and Toronto, 1981, 417 pp, £20.00     

B. Stott 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1983,17(2):225

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The Nuclear Stellar Cluster in NGC 1068     

Niranjan Thatte  Reinhard Genzel  Harald Kroker  Alfred Krabbe  Lowell E. Tacconi-Garman  Roberto Maiolino  Matthias Tecza 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,248(1-2):225-234

We present new near-infrared integral field spectroscopy and adaptive optics imaging of the nucleus of NGC 1068. Using the stellar CO absorption features in the H and K bands, we have identified a moderately extincted stellar core centered on the nuclear position and of intrinsic size ~50 pc. We show that this nuclear stellar core is probably 5-16 × 108 years in age and contributes at least 7% of the total nuclear luminosity of ~1 × 1011 L⊙. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. R. Allen  N. P. Gillett  J. A. Kettleborough  G. Hegerl  R. Schnur  P. A. Stott  G. Boer  C. Covey  T. L. Delworth  G. S. Jones  J. F. B. Mitchell  T. P. Barnett 《Surveys in Geophysics》2006,27(5):491-544

We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing.  相似文献   

Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I – variability and correlation structure     

K. Braganza  D. Karoly  A. Hirst  M. Mann  P. Stott  R. Stouffer  S. Tett 《Climate Dynamics》2003,20(5):491-502

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IMPACT: an implicit time integration scheme for chemical species and families     

G. D. Carver  P. A. Stott 《Annales Geophysicae》2000,18(3):337-346

The implicit time integration scheme of Stott and Harwood (1993) was proposed as an efficient scheme for use in three-dimensional chemical models of the atmosphere. The scheme was designed for chemistry schemes using chemical families, in which species with short lifetimes are grouped into longer-lived families. Further study with more complex chemistry, more species and reactions showed the scheme to be non-convergent and unstable under certain conditions; particularly for the perturbed chemical scenarios of polar stratospheric winters. In this work the scheme has been improved by revising the treatment of families and the convergence properties of the scheme. The new scheme has been named IMPACT (IMPlicit Algorithm for Chemical Time-stepping). It remains easy to implement and produces simulations that compare well with integrations using more accurate higher order schemes.  相似文献   

Natural recovery from accelerated forest ditch and stream bank erosion five years after harvesting of plantation forest on Plynlimon,mid‐Wales     

Tim Stott 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(3):349-357

Erosion rates surveyed using 230 erosion pins on 24 occasions over eight years (1994–2001) on forested stream banks, tributaries and forest ditches in the 0·89 km² Nant Tanllwyth catchment, part of the Hafren Forest on Plynlimon, mid‐Wales, showed statistically significant increases of up to 40 mm a^?1 in mean erosion rates during the two‐year period in which environmentally sensitive plot‐scale timber harvesting operations took place (1996–97). In the four years following timber harvesting mean erosion rates at all sites recovered to levels that were lower than before the harvesting operations began. This is attributed to increased light levels, following canopy removal, allowing vegetation to colonize exposed banks. There was a statistically significant relationship (p < 0·05) between mean erosion rate in 2000–01 (four years after harvesting) and percentage vegetation cover at erosion monitoring sites in the clearfelled (south tributaries) area though the same relationship did not hold for sites on the mainstream banks or for sites on the north (mature forest) ditch sites. The implications of natural vegetation colonization for management of such streams are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Applications of interannual-resolution stable isotope records of speleothem: Climatic changes in Beijing and Tianjin, China during the past 500 years—the δ 18O record     

Hongchun Li  Delong Gu  Tehlung Ku  L. D. Stott  Wenji Chen 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》1998,41(4):362-368

δ¹⁸O of a stalagmite collected from Shihua Cave, 50 km southwest of Beijing is analyzed. The uppermost 2 cm was sampled at about 3-year intervals by a computer-controlled microsampling device. A total of 133 samples were analyzed, covering the last 480 years. A comparison of the δ¹⁸O record with the instrumentally recorded precipitation in Beijing and Tianjin back to 1840 AD shows that high precipitation correlates with negative δ¹⁸O peaks. The long-term δ¹⁸O trend records temperature changes. Between 1620 and 1900 AD, the temperature was cooler than the average value for the 480-year record, corresponding to the Little Ice Age. Temperatures warmer than the average prevailed during 1520–1620 and 1900—present. Superimposed on the long-term trend are about 14 δ¹⁸O cycles of 30–40-year periodicity, with wet periods centered around 1985, 1955, 1910, 1880, 1840, 1800, 1760, 1730, 1690, 1660, 1630, 1600, 1560 and 1530 AD. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 9615875).  相似文献