Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. II: Climate change scenarios in the late twenty-first century   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mario N. Nuñez  Silvina A. Solman  Maria Fernanda Cabré 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(7-8):1081-1095

We present an analysis of climate change over southern South America as simulated by a regional climate model. The regional model MM5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model. The simulations cover a 10-year period representing present-day climate (1981–1990) and two future scenarios for the SRESA2 and B2 emission scenarios for the period 2081–2090. There are a few quantitative differences between the two regional scenarios. The simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario, although with few qualitative differences. For the two regional scenarios, the warming in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and northeastern Argentina is particularly large in spring. Over the western coast of South America both scenarios project a general decrease in precipitation. Both the A2 and B2 simulations show a general increase in precipitation in northern and central Argentina especially in summer and fall and a general decrease in precipitation in winter and spring. In fall the simulations agree on a general decrease in precipitation in southern Brazil. This reflects changes in the atmospheric circulation during winter and spring. Changes in mean sea level pressure show a cell of increasing pressure centered somewhere in the southern Atlantic Ocean and southern Pacific Ocean, mainly during summer and fall in the Atlantic and in spring in the Pacific. In relation to the pressure distribution in the control run, this indicates a southward extension of the summer mean Atlantic and Pacific subtropical highs.  相似文献   

A Europe–South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies     

Jean-Philippe Boulanger  G. Brasseur  Andrea Fabiana Carril  Manuel de Castro  Nicolas Degallier  Carlos Ereño  H. Le Treut  Jose Antonio Marengo  Claudio Guillermo Menendez  Mario Nestor Nuñez  Olga C. Penalba  Alfredo Luis Rolla  Matilde Rusticucci  Rafael Terra 《Climatic change》2010,98(3-4):307-329

The goal of the CLARIS project was to build an integrated European–South American network dedicated to promote common research strategies to observe and predict climate changes and their consequent socio-economic impacts taking into account the climate and societal peculiarities of South America. Reaching that goal placed the present network as a privileged advisor to contribute to the design of adaptation strategies in a region strongly affected by and dependent on climate variability (e.g. agriculture, health, hydro-electricity). Building the CLARIS network required fulfilling the following three objectives: (1) The first objective of CLARIS was to set up and favour the technical transfer and expertise in earth system and regional climate modelling between Europe and South America together with the providing of a list of climate data (observed and simulated) required for model validations; (2) The second objective of CLARIS was to facilitate the exchange of observed and simulated climate data between the climate research groups and to create a South American high-quality climate database for studies in extreme events and long-term climate trends; (3) Finally, the third objective of CLARIS was to strengthen the communication between climate researchers and stakeholders, and to demonstrate the feasibility of using climate information in the decision-making process.  相似文献   

Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020’s and 2050’s using the pattern scaling technique: validity and limitations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Maria Fernanda Cabré  S. A. Solman  M. N. Nuñez 《Climatic change》2010,98(3-4):449-469

Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the end of the twenty first century. However, regional projections for a variety of scenarios and periods, the 2020s or the 2050s, are often required by the impact community. The pattern scaling technique is used to estimate information on climate change for periods and scenarios not simulated by the regional model. We based our study on regional simulations performed over southern South America for present climate conditions and two emission scenarios at the end of the twenty first century. We used the pattern scaling technique to estimate mean seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation for the 2020s and the 2050s. The validity of the scalability assumptions underlying the pattern scaling technique for estimating near future regional climate change scenarios over southern South America is assessed. The results show that the pattern scaling works well for estimating mean temperature changes for which the regional changes are linearly related to the global mean temperature changes. For precipitation changes, the validity of the scalability assumption is weaker. The errors of estimating precipitation changes are comparable to those inherent to the regional model and to the projected changes themselves.  相似文献   

Downscaling extreme month-long anomalies in southern South America     

C. G. Menéndez  M. de Castro  J.-P. Boulanger  A. D’Onofrio  E. Sanchez  A. A. Sörensson  J. Blazquez  A. Elizalde  D. Jacob  H. Le Treut  Z. X. Li  M. N. Núñez  N. Pessacg  S. Pfeiffer  M. Rojas  A. Rolla  P. Samuelsson  S. A. Solman  C. Teichmann 《Climatic change》2010,98(3-4):379-403

We investigate the performance of one stretched-grid atmospheric global model, five different regional climate models and a statistical downscaling technique in simulating 3 months (January 1971, November 1986, July 1996) characterized by anomalous climate conditions in the southern La Plata Basin. Models were driven by reanalysis (ERA-40). The analysis has emphasized on the simulation of the precipitation over land and has provided a quantification of the biases of and scatter between the different regional simulations. Most but not all dynamical models underpredict precipitation amounts in south eastern South America during the three periods. Results suggest that models have regime dependence, performing better for some conditions than others. The models’ ensemble and the statistical technique succeed in reproducing the overall observed frequency of daily precipitation for all periods. But most models tend to underestimate the frequency of dry days and overestimate the amount of light rainfall days. The number of events with strong or heavy precipitation tends to be under simulated by the models.  相似文献   

Proposal of a function for modelling the hourly frequency distributions of photosynthetically active radiation     

J. Tovar-Pescador  D. Pozo-Vazquez  J. Batlles  G. López  D. Muñoz-Vicente 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2004,79(1-2):71-79

Summary Solar irradiance is a key factor in the physiological processes of living beings. To obtain simple correlations for the estimation of the performance of biological systems, which transform the solar energy by photosynthesis, and to generate synthetic data, it is necessary to know the frequency distributions of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). In this work we carried out an analysis of the properties of hourly values of PAR data, using 9 years of data collected in southern Spain. In particularly, its dependence on the optical mass, for all type of skies including cloudy skies, is studied. Results shows that, for a given value of the optical mass, the PAR density distributions are not symmetrical and have a certain degree of bimodality. The increment in the optical mass value has two effects on the PAR distributions, the first one is a shift toward lower values of the maximum and the second one is a decrease in the range of PAR values. Finally, a model of the frequency distribution of PAR values, based on a new kind of functions related to the Boltzmanns statistic, is proposed. The parameters of these functions depend just on the optical mass. Results show a very good agreement between the data and the model proposed.  相似文献   

High CO2 Levels in Boreholes at El Teide Volcano Complex (Tenerife, Canary Islands): Implications for Volcanic Activity Monitoring     

V. Soler  J. A. Castro-Almazán  R. T. Viñas  A. Eff-Darwich  S. Sánchez-Moral  C. Hillaire-Marcel  I. Farrujia  J. Coello  J. de la Nuez  M. C. Martín  M. L. Quesada  E. Santana 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(7):1519-1532

Emissions of CO₂ have been known for more than a hundred years as fumarolic activity at the terminal crater of El Teide volcano and as diffuse emissions at numerous water prospection drillings in the volcanic island of Tenerife. Large concentrations of CO₂ (>10% in volume) have been found inside galleries, long horizontal tunnels excavated for water mining. However, CO₂ concentrations of only 2900 ppm have been observed at the surface of the central region of the island (Las Cañadas del Teide caldera). In this work we analysed CO₂ concentrations in the subsurface of Las Cañadas caldera, in an attempt to study the vertical distribution of carbon dioxide and, in particular, the low emissions at the surface. This has been done through a series of 17 vertical profiles in two deep boreholes excavated in the Caldera. We found high levels of CO₂, varying in time from 13 vol% up to 40 vol% in different profiles directly above the water table, while no significant concentrations were detected above the thermal inversion that takes places in both boreholes at approximately 100 m from the water table. Water analyses also showed high dissolved CO₂ levels in equilibrium with the air, and an average 13C value in DIC of +4.7 (PDB), apparently induced by fast CO₂ degassing in the bicarbonated water.  相似文献   

Leaf retention in streams of the Agüera basin (northern Spain)     

Santiago Larrañaga  José Ramón Díez  Arturo Elosegi  Jesús Pozo 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2003,65(2):158-166

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Diffraction of plane SV waves by a shallow circular-arc canyon in a saturated poroelastic half-space   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Jianwen Liang  Zhenning Ba  Vincent W. Lee   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2006,26(6-7):582-610

An analytical solution for the scattering and diffraction of incident plane SV waves by a shallow circular-arc canyon in a saturated poroelastic half-space is derived by the wave function expansion method. The solution is utilized to analyze the dependence of the computed surface motions on the incident frequencies, incident angles, porosity, boundary drainage and Poisson's ratio. It is shown that, depending on the incident angles, the surface displacement amplitudes around a canyon in a dry poroelastic half-space and saturated poroelastic half-space can be very different. The surface displacement amplitudes of an undrained saturated poroelastic half-space are close to those of a drained saturated poroelastic half-space. For low porosity, the surface displacement amplitudes of a saturated poroelastic half-space are almost identical to those of a dry poroelastic half-space, and drainage condition has little influence on the surface displacement amplitudes. But for high porosity, the effect of drainage condition becomes significant, and for the same porosity, the displacement amplitudes of an undrained saturated half-space will be larger than those of a drained saturated half-space. Poisson's ratio is also an important factor affecting the surface displacement amplitudes around the canyon, both in drained and undrained conditions, but leads to larger effects for an undrained saturated half-space than for a drained saturated half-space. Large pore pressures are found around the canyon and their amplitudes depend on the incident angles and frequencies. Below the surface, the amplitudes of pore pressures are less than they are at the surface, especially for high frequencies.  相似文献   

Daily, weekly and seasonal relationships among VOCs, NOx x and O3 in a semi-urban area near Barcelona     

I. Filella  J. Peñuelas 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2006,54(2):189-201

Daily, weekly, and seasonal patterns of O₃, NOx _x and VOCs and their relationship to meteorological conditions were studied in a semi-urban site near Barcelona by means of five-day long campaigns that included weekend and labor days in December, March, June, and October. The plant protection thresholds for ozone and NO₂ were exceeded, respectively, on all the studied days in summer and on all the studied days. Ozone formation was predominantly local and relied on photochemical processes with VOCs playing a controlling role. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, methanol, toluene, isoprene, and acetone (in this order) presented the highest O₃ formation potential during the studied periods. These results highlight the important role in O₃ formation played by VOC species such as acetaldehyde, methanol, and acetone, that all have a significant biogenic component. Thus, these VOCs must be taken into account in the discussion of any ozone abatement strategy.  相似文献   

Paleolimnological evidence of Holocene climatic changes in Lake Blanca, southern Uruguay     

L. del Puerto  F. García-Rodríguez  H. Inda  R. Bracco  C. Castiñeira  J. B. Adams 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(2):151-163

Paleolimnological data are presented on Holocene climatic changes in Lake Blanca, a small (0.6 km²), coastal fresh waterbody in southern Uruguay. Using a sediment core that extended to 7,300 year BP, analyses of pooid, panicoid and chloridoid phytoliths (Poaceae) allowed us to identify 16 Opal Phytoliths Association Zones (OPAZ). Both temperature and humidity indices were calculated from relative percentages of opal phytoliths and the climatic trends were inferred. During the early Holocene, prior to the first Holocene marine transgression (∼ ∼8,000–7,000 yr BP), cool-arid climatic conditions were inferred. After the first Holocene transgression, predominance of cool-humid conditions was registered until about 4,000 yr BP. A transition from cool-semiarid/arid to alternate warm-temperate and humid-very-humid conditions was detected for ∼∼4,000–1,000 yr BP. Increases in trophic state were observed because of such a climatic amelioration. After ∼ ∼1,000 yr BP, a shift from warm to temperate and cool temperatures was inferred. Such a cooling episode was assigned to a “LIA” which took place by the end of the 18th century and the beginning of the 19th century. A decrease in trophic state was observed during this climatic deterioration. After such a little ice age, present temperate humid conditions were established. The humidity indices calculated from relative percentages of opal phytoliths for the last ∼ ∼70 years were compared to annual rainfall data. Such a comparison showed that opal phytoliths are reliable indicators of humidity.  相似文献