Memorial for Katja and Maurice Krafft     

Jörg Keller 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1992,54(7):613-614

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Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling     

Martin Vezér  Alexander Bakker  Klaus Keller  Nancy Tuana 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):1-10

Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.  相似文献   

Biotic effects of environmental catastrophes at the end of the Cretaceous and early Tertiary: Guembelitria and Heterohelix blooms     

Alfonso Pardo  Gerta Keller 《Cretaceous Research》2008,29(5-6):1058

In this study we report similar biotic response patterns in planktic foraminiferal assemblages, whether in association with volcanism, impacts or climate change at the end of the Cretaceous and early Tertiary. During and after each type of catastrophe two groups dominate high stress assemblages: (1) the small Guembelitria species, which are interpreted as having thrived in eutrophic surface waters where other species rarely survived; and (2) the low oxygen tolerant small Heterohelix species, which thrived at times of an expanding oxygen minimum zone associated with high nutrients and a stratified water column. The ecosystem collapse appears to be primarily the result of high macro- and micronutrient influx (from impacts, volcanism and erosion) leading to eutrophication and phytoplankton blooms (i.e., primary producers) that result in toxic conditions for foraminifera. Once nutrients decrease due to consumption by phytoplankton, the first opportunistic foraminifera, the Guembelitria, appear and graze on phytoplankton, rapidly reproduce (heterochronic acceleration) and increase populations exponentially. With nutrient depletion Guembelitria populations rapidly decrease leading to ecologic niches for other generalists and ecosystem recovery. Small low O₂ tolerant heterohelicid populations mark this second stage, followed by small trochospiral and planispiral species. With further environmental recovery, increasing competition, niche development, and restoration of a well-stratified watermass, oligotrophic conditions are restored opening habitats for large, highly specialized species and a return to normal diverse assemblages. Such highly stressed ecological successions are observed in association with mantle plume volcanism in the Indian Ocean, Andean volcanism in Argentina and shallow inland seas in Egypt and Madagascar during the late Maastrichtian, the K-T impact, volcanism during the early Danian, and intense upwelling and climate extremes. We present a simple model to explain the ecological succession and recovery phases that follow major biotic perturbations.  相似文献   

Cretaceous climate, volcanism, impacts, and biotic effects   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Gerta Keller   《Cretaceous Research》2008,29(5-6):754

Cretaceous volcanic activities (LIPs and CFBPs) appear to have had relatively minor biotic effects, at least at the generic level. Major biotic stress during the Cretaceous was associated with OAEs and related to nutrient availability largely from weathering, greenhouse warming, drowning of platform areas, and volcanism. The biotic effects of OAEs were often dramatic at the species level, causing the extinction of larger specialized and heavily calcified planktonic foraminifera (rotaliporid extinction) and nannoconids (nannoconid crises), the temporary disappearances of other larger species, and the rapid increase in r-selected small and thin-walled species, such as the low oxygen tolerant heterohelicids and radially elongated taxa among planktic foraminifera and thin walled nannofossils. Biotic diversity increased during cool climates, particularly during the late Campanian and Maastrichtian, reaching maximum diversity during the middle Maastrichtian. High biotic stress conditions began during greenhouse warming and Deccan volcanism about 400 ky before the K-T boundary; it reduced abundances of large specialized tropical planktic foraminiferal species and endangered their survival. By K-T time, renewed Deccan volcanism combined with a large impact probably triggered the demise of this already extinction prone species group.Evidence from NE Mexico, Texas, and the Chicxulub crater itself indicates that this 170 km-diameter crater predates the K-T boundary by 300,000 years and caused no species extinctions. The Chicxulub impact, therefore, can no longer be considered a direct cause for the K-T mass extinction. However, the K-T mass extinction is closely associated with a global Ir anomaly, which is considered too large, too widespread, and too concentrated in a thin layer to have originated from volcanic activity, leaving another large impact as the most likely source. This suggests that a second still unknown larger impact may have triggered the K-T mass extinction.  相似文献   

A watershed nitrogen and phosphorus balance: The upper Potomac River basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Norbert A. Jaworski  Peter M. Groffman  Aimee A. Keller  Jan C. Prager 《Estuaries and Coasts》1992,15(1):83-95

Nitrogen and phosphorus mass balances were estimated for the portion of the Potomac River basin watershed located above Washington, D.C. The total nitrogen (N) balance included seven input tource terms, six sinks, and one “change-in-storage” term, but was simplified to five input terms and three output terms. The phosphorus (P) balance had four input and three output terms. The estimated balances are based on watershed data from seven information sources. Major sources of nitrogen are amimal waste and atmospheric deposition. The major sources of phosphorus are animal waste and fertilizer. The major sink, for nitrogen is combined denitrification, volatilization, and change-in-storage. The major sink for phosphorus is change-in-storage. River exports of N and P were 17% and 8%, respectively, of the total N and P inputs. Over 60% of the N and P were volatilized or stored. The major input and output terms on the budget are estimated from direct measurements, but the change-in-storage term is calculated by difference. The factors regulating retention and storage processes are discussed and research needs are identified.  相似文献   

Laboratory Demonstration of Hydrocarbon Migration in the Vadose Zone: Effectiveness of the U-Tube Design for Underground Storage Tank Leak Detection Monitoring     

David S. Springer  Edward A. Keller  Lome G. Everett  Lawrence A. Eccles 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1991,11(4):133-138

The experimental results derived from a laboratory model of gasoline migration from a simulated leaking underground storage tank (UST) demonstrate that the direction of migration through the simulated fill material is essentially straight down. Consequently, the U-tube design for leak detection monitoring of USTs has limited utility because that design relies on the assumption that the path of migration of the leaked fluids will follow the surface of the tank to the bottom and be intercepted by the U-tube below.  相似文献   

基于ALOS-PALSAR卫星数据对青藏高原东缘龙日坝断裂带地表构造伸展的研究及其大地构造指示意义          下载免费PDF全文

郭晓玉  高锐  徐啸  Keller G R 《地质科学》2016,(1):15-25

龙日坝断裂带位于青藏高原最东缘,呈北东-南西向延伸,平行于其东侧的龙门山断裂带,二者大约相距150 km。与龙门山断裂带不同的是,龙日坝断裂带在青藏高原东缘相关GPS测量中表现为一明显的速度梯度带,说明龙日坝断裂带可能具有很重要的构造属性。然而有关龙日坝断裂带的地表结构构造延伸问题一直悬而未决,目前还存在许多的争议,这在一定程度上也阻碍了我们对青藏高原东缘相对于印度-欧亚板块碰撞地球动力学响应的了解。在本次研究中,我们将首次采用ALOS-PALSAR卫星数据,并结合地表地质和前人的地球物理学研究成果,来监测与龙日坝断裂带的构造活动相关的细微地表形变,并由此控制龙日坝断裂带的延伸范围。研究结果表明,龙日坝断裂带与其西南侧的抚边河断裂带相交且近乎垂直,而非前人研究所认为的龙日坝断裂带延伸至其西缘的鲜水河断裂带。综合研究结果也为了解龙日坝断裂带的大地构造属性提供了数据支持。  相似文献   

宽角反射、折射地震数据与重力数据综合解释龙门山及邻近地区地壳结构          下载免费PDF全文

徐啸  高锐  郭晓玉  Keller G R 《地质科学》2016,(1):26-40

青藏高原东部的隆升机制一直都是地学界的研究热点,研究学者们提出和发展了多种岩石圈变形模型,而存在多种模型的主要原因之一是对青藏高原东部地壳及岩石圈结构认识不足。本文主要针对SinoProbe-02项目横跨龙门山断裂带、全长400多公里的宽角、折射地震数据及重力数据进行联合反演和综合解释。研究结果表明,龙门山及邻近地区地壳结构可明确划分为上地壳、中地壳和下地壳。上地壳上层为沉积层,龙门山断裂带以西大部分区域被三叠纪复理岩覆盖,而在龙日坝断裂与岷江断裂之间出现了密度为2.7g/cm³的高速异常体;向东靠近龙门山地区,沉积层厚度逐渐减薄。中地壳速度变化不均一,而且变形强烈;若尔盖盆地和龙门山断裂带下方出现明显低速带;中地壳在龙门山西侧厚度加厚,在岷江断裂下方和四川盆地靠近龙门山断裂带地区附近厚度达到最大。莫霍面整体深度从东往西增厚,最厚可达56 km。本次研究得到的地壳结构和密度分布分析结果表明现有的地壳厚度和物质组成不足以支撑龙门山及邻近地区目前所达到的隆升高度,因此四川盆地刚性基底西缘因挤压作用产生的弯曲应力也是该地区抬升的重要条件之一。  相似文献   

Linked to Landscape: Assessing Urbanization in Germany through Landscape and Economic Factors     

Rose Keller  Colin Vance 《The Professional geographer》2017,69(3):424-437

The ongoing encroachment of urban land into natural landscapes has resulted in the degradation of ecosystems throughout Europe. Understanding why the share of urban land has increased is important for managing urban growth and maintaining ecosystem services. We estimate a model of landscape change that integrates geospatial and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban growth observed in Germany between 2000 and 2006. In doing so, we test several determinants of urbanization identified by theoretical frameworks from landscape ecology and economics, including landscape pattern and transit infrastructure. The results show that despite planning guidelines and policies to promote dense development, urban growth has been extensive. Regions with a high degree of fragmented land and the prevalence of environmental amenities are characterized by particularly strong growth, pointing to challenges in crafting landscape policies that balance economic development with environmental conservation.  相似文献   

The chemistry of clay minerals | C.E. Weaver and L.D. Pollard, 1973. Elsevier,Amsterdam, 213 pp., U.S., $22.50     

W.D. Keller 《Earth》1974,10(1):83-86

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