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51.
Giulia Codegone Vera Rocca Francesca Verga Christian Coti 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2016,34(6):1749-1763
The multi-disciplinary work described in the paper was aimed at analyzing and predicting the cyclical ground surface movements induced by underground gas storage (UGS) activities in a depleted gas field located in the Po Plain (Italy). The field has been operated as a storage facility for nearly three decades. Currently, the possibility of delta-pressuring the reservoir (i.e. to increase the maximum operating pressure above the initial reservoir pressure) to enhance the storage performance is being considered. Significant information was collected over time: 2/3D seismic surveys, geological and sedimentological studies, 60+ logged wells, geotechnical lab tests and 50+ years of production history and monitoring were available for the development of a fully integrated static–dynamic–geomechanical analysis. The mechanical aspects of the study are the focus of this paper. The data coming from different sources at different scales were analysed and integrated to set up and characterize a 3D finite element method mechanical model to calculate the surface movements induced by UGS activity by adopting an elasto-plastic constitutive law. The model was then calibrated via a back analysis approach, i.e. the model parameters were fine-tuned so that the simulated subsidence/uplift would compare satisfactorily with the ground movements collected over nearly 10 years of monitoring via interferometric synthetic aperture radar analysis in the region under investigation. Eventually, the calibrated model was used as a forecasting tool for subsidence evaluation under different future storage strategies, including delta-pressuring conditions. Results proved that no significant subsidence is expected even if the maximum operating pressure reached 120 % of the initial formation pressure. 相似文献
52.
Sala Gianluca Lanfranconi Camilla Frattini Paolo Rusconi Giulia Crosta Giovanni B. 《Landslides》2021,18(9):2979-2992
The risk management of rainfall-induced landslides requires reliable rainfall thresholds to issue early warning alerts. The practical application of these thresholds often leads to misclassifications, either false negative or false positive, which induce costs for the society. Since missed-alarm (false negative) and false-alarm (false positive) cost may be significantly different, it is necessary to find an optimal threshold that accounts for and minimises such costs, tuning the false-alarm and missed-alarm rates. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to develop cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds, and we also analyse several factors that produce uncertainty, such as the accuracy of rainfall intensity values at landslide location, the time of occurrence, the minimum rainfall amount to define the non-triggering event, and the variability of cost scenarios. Starting from a detailed mapping of landslides that occurred during five large-scale rainfall events in the Italian Central Alps, we first developed rainfall threshold curves with a ROC-based approach by using both rain gauge and bias-adjusted weather radar data. Then, based on a reference cost scenario in which we quantified several cost items for both missed alarms and false alarms, we developed cost-sensitive rainfall threshold curves by using cost-curve approach (Drummond and Holte 2000). Finally, we studied the sensitivity of cost items. The study confirms how important is the information regarding rainfall intensity at the landslide site for the development of rainfall thresholds. Although the use of bias-corrected radar strongly improves these values, a large uncertainty related to the exact time of landslide occurrence still remains, negatively affecting the analysis. Accounting for the different missed-alarm and false-alarm misclassification costs is important because different combinations of these costs make an increase or decrease of the rainfall thresholds convenient. In our reference cost scenario, the most convenient threshold is lower than ROC-based thresholds because it seeks to minimise the number of missed alarms, whereas the missed-alarm costs are almost seven times greater than false-alarm costs. However, for different cost scenarios, threshold may vary significantly, as much as half an order of magnitude.
相似文献53.
Molinari Daniela Dazzi Susanna Gattai Edoardo Minucci Guido Pesaro Giulia Radice Alessio Vacondio Renato 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):3061-3084
Natural Hazards - This paper shows a detailed, advanced procedure to implement cost–benefit analyses (CBAs) in order to assess the effectiveness of flood mitigation measures. The town of Lodi... 相似文献
54.
Alessandro Amorosi Giulia Barbieri Luigi Bruno Bruno Campo Tina M. Drexler Wan Hong Veronica Rossi Irene Sammartino Daniele Scarponi Stefano Claudio Vaiani Kevin M. Bohacs 《Sedimentology》2019,66(7):3029-3052
Although general trends in transgressive to highstand sedimentary evolution of river‐mouth coastlines are well‐known, the details of the turnaround from retrogradational (typically estuarine) to aggradational–progradational (typically coastal/deltaic) stacking patterns are not fully resolved. This paper examines the middle to late Holocene eustatic highstand succession of the Po Delta: its stratigraphic architecture records a complex pattern of delta outbuilding and coastal progradation that followed eustatic stabilization, since around 7·7 cal kyr bp . Sedimentological, palaeoecological (benthic foraminifera, ostracods and molluscs) and compositional criteria were used to characterize depositional conditions and sediment‐dispersal pathways within a radiocarbon‐dated chronological framework. A three‐stage progradation history was reconstructed. First, as soon as eustasy stabilized (7·7 to 7·0 cal kyr bp ), rapid bay‐head delta progradation (ca 5 m year?1), fed mostly by the Po River, took place in a mixed, freshwater and brackish estuarine environment. Second, a dominantly aggradational parasequence set of beach‐barrier deposits in the lower highstand systems tract (7·0 to 2·0 cal kyr bp ) records the development of a shallow, wave‐dominated coastal system fed alongshore, with elongated, modestly crescent beaches (ca 2·5 m year?1). Third, in the last 2000 years, the development of faster accreting and more rapidly prograding (up to ca 15 m year?1) Po delta lobes occurred into 30 m deep waters (upper highstand systems tract). This study documents the close correspondence of sediment character with stratal distribution patterns within the highstand systems tract. Remarkable changes in sediment characteristics, palaeoenvironments and direction of sediment transport occur across a surface named the ‘A–P surface’. This surface demarcates a major shift from dominantly aggradational (lower highstand systems tract) to fully progradational (upper highstand systems tract) parasequence stacking. In the Po system, this surface also reflects evolution from a wave‐dominated to river‐dominated deltaic system. Identifying the A–P surface through detailed palaeoecological and compositional data can help guide interpretation of highstand systems tracts in the rock record, especially where facies assemblages and their characteristic geometries are difficult to discern from physical sedimentary structures alone. 相似文献
55.
基于多尺度数字地形定量分析的月球线性构造自动提取研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
月球表面构造对于理解和重建月球地质构造演化具有重要意义,月岭、月溪等线性构造的形态及分布特征与月球内动力构造运动密切相关。极为有限的样品和难度极高的野外勘察使得遥感成为行星科学研究的最主要手段。中国、美国、日本、印度等国先后发射的多颗新型探月卫星获取了大量高质量数据,尤其是高分辨率的数字地形数据(DTM,Digital Terrain Model)。高分辨率的DTM为月球表面构造特征的自动提取带来了新的机遇与挑战。文中利用多种分辨率的DTM数据,基于多尺度数字地形定量分析方法,识别和提取月球表面的线性构造。使用的地形数据包括500 m分辨率“嫦娥一号”激光高度计数据,100 m分辨率LRO-WAC广角相机数据,60 m分辨率的LRO-LOLA激光测距仪数据以及分辨率高达5 m的LRO-NAC窄视角相机数据。文中使用地形曲率来识别月溪月岭等线性构造,并利用不同滑动窗口大小和阈值进行线性构造的自动提取。对研究区试验结果的定量分析表明,文中提出的基于地形曲率的月表线性构造自动提取方法是有效且可行的,其结果可为月球表面线性构造解译提供重要参考,提高构造解译时效性和精度。 相似文献
56.
This work tests the capability of a recently published topographic index, the Slope Local Length of Auto‐correlation (SLLAC), to portrait and delineate anthropogenic geomorphologies. The patterns of the anthropogenic pressure are defined considering the road network density and the Urban Complexity Index (UCI). First, the research investigates the changes in the SLLAC in two derived parameters (average SLLAC and the SLLAC surface peak curvature – Spc – per km2) connected to the increasing of the anthropogenic structures. Next, natural and anthropogenic landscapes are clustered and classified. The results show that there is a direct correlation between the road network density and the UCI, and the mean SLLAC per km2. However, the Spc is inversely correlated with the anthropogenic pressure (network density and urban complexity). This shows that the surface morphology (slope) of regions presenting anthropogenic structures tends to be well organized (low Spc) and, in general, self‐similar at a long distance (higher average SLLAC). The results of the clustering approach show that the procedure can correctly depict anthropogenic landscapes having a road network density greater than about 3 km/km2, also in areas covered by vegetation. This latter result is promising for the use of such a procedure in regions that cannot be seen directly from orthophotos or satellite images. The proposed method can actively capture the alteration produced by road networks on surface morphology identifying different signatures of urban development: exploration and densification networks that are responsible for increasing the local density of the network and expanding the network into new areas, respectively. The effects of this alteration on surface processes could be significant for future research, creating new questions about differences due to human or landscape forcing on Earth surface processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
57.
This paper presents a new probabilistic physically-based computational model (called PG_TRIGRS) for the probabilistic analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazard at a regional scale. The model is based on the deterministic approach implemented in the original TRIGRS code, developed by Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 02–424, 2002) and Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 08–1159, 2008). Its key innovative features are: (a) the application of Ordinary Kriging for the estimation of the spatial distributions of the first two statistical moments of the probability density functions of the relevant soil properties over the entire area, based on limited available information gathered from available information from limited site investigation campaigns, and (b) the use of Rosenblueth’s Point Estimate method as a more efficient alternative to the classical Monte Carlo method for the reliability analysis performed at the single-cell level to obtain the probability of failure associated to a given rainfall event. The application of the PG_TRIGRS code to a selected study area located in the Umbria Region for different idealized but realistic rainfall scenarios has demonstrated the computational efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed methodology, assessed by comparing predicted landslide densities with available field observations reported by the IFFI project. In particular, while the model might fail to identify all individual landslide events, its predictions are remarkably good in identifying the areas of higher landslide density. 相似文献
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59.
Giulia Schettino Daniele Serra Giacomo Tommei Andrea Milani 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2018,130(11):72
The Mercury Orbiter Radio science Experiment (MORE) is one of the experiments on-board the ESA/JAXA BepiColombo mission to Mercury, to be launched in October 2018. Thanks to full on-board and on-ground instrumentation performing very precise tracking from the Earth, MORE will have the chance to determine with very high accuracy the Mercury-centric orbit of the spacecraft and the heliocentric orbit of Mercury. This will allow to undertake an accurate test of relativistic theories of gravitation (relativity experiment), which consists in improving the knowledge of some post-Newtonian and related parameters, whose value is predicted by General Relativity. This paper focuses on two critical aspects of the BepiColombo relativity experiment. First of all, we address the delicate issue of determining the orbits of Mercury and the Earth–Moon barycenter at the level of accuracy required by the purposes of the experiment and we discuss a strategy to cure the rank deficiencies that appear in the problem. Secondly, we introduce and discuss the role of the Solar Lense–Thirring effect in the Mercury orbit determination problem and in the relativistic parameters estimation. 相似文献
60.
Daniele Penna Giulia Zuecco Stefano Crema Sebastiano Trevisani Marco Cavalli Luisa Pianezzola Lorenzo Marchi Marco Borga 《水文研究》2017,31(4):768-782
In this study, we investigate the surface flow time of rise in response to rainfall and snowmelt events at different spatial scales and the main sources originating channel runoff and spring water in a steep nested headwater catchment (Rio Vauz, Italian Dolomites), characterized by a marked elevation gradient. We monitored precipitation at different elevations and measured water stage/streamflow at the outlet of two rocky subcatchments of the same size, representative of the upper part of the catchment dominated by outcropping bedrock, at the outlet of a soil‐mantled and vegetated subcatchment of similar size but different morphology, and at the outlet of the main catchment. Hydrometric data are coupled with stable isotopes and electrical conductivity sampled from different water sources during five years, and used as tracers in end‐member mixing analysis, application of two component mixing models and analysis of the slope of the dual‐isotope regression line. Results reveal that times of rise are slightly shorter for the two rocky subcatchments, particularly for snowmelt and mixed rainfall/snowmelt events, compared to the soil‐mantled catchment and the entire Rio Vauz Catchment. The highly‐variable tracer signature of the different water sources reflects the geomorphological and geological complexity of the study area. The principal end‐members for channel runoff and spring water are identified in rainfall and snowmelt, which are the dominant water sources in the rocky upper part of the study catchment, and soil water and shallow groundwater, which play a relevant role in originating baseflow and spring water in the soil‐mantled and vegetated lower part of the catchment. Particularly, snowmelt contributes up to 64 ± 8% to spring water in the concave upper parts of the catchment and up to 62 ± 11% to channel runoff in the lower part of the catchment. These results offer new experimental evidences on how Dolomitic catchments capture and store rain water and meltwater, releasing it through a complex network of surface and subsurface flow pathways, and allow for the construction of a preliminary conceptual model on water transmission in snowmelt‐dominated catchments featuring marked elevation gradients. 相似文献