Possible Climate Change Impact on River Runoff in the Different Regions of the Globe     

E. M. Gusev  O. N. Nasonova  E. E. Kovalev  G. V. Aizel’ 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(6):397-403

The possibility ofassessing changes in river runofftill 2100 for a number oflarge river basins of the world for a wide range of natural conditions is investigated. The assessment is based on the SWAP (Soil Water–Atmosphere–Plants) model using meteorological data as inputs which were simulated with different general atmosphere–ocean circulation models in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. The possible climatic changes in annual runoff for some rivers by the end of the 21st century are compared with the natural interannual variability of river runoff caused by weather noise.  相似文献   

Turbulence modeling in ocean circulation problems     

S. N. Moshonkin  V. B. Zalesny  A. V. Gusev  R. Tamsalu 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(1):49-60

A physical formulation of the problem is considered. A mathematical model and a numerical algorithm of the turbulence model as part of the ocean circulation model for simulations for decades are formulated. The model is based on the evolution equations for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and the frequency of its viscous dissipation. A numerical solution algorithm for both the circulation model and the turbulence model is based on implicit schemes of splitting with respect to physical processes and geometric coordinates. For the turbulence model, this provided analytical solutions at a splitting step related to TKE generation and dissipation. Numerical experiments have been performed with a model of the joint circulation of the North Atlantic, the Arctic Ocean, and the Bering Sea to reproduce the annual cycle and synoptic disturbances of ocean characteristics. The model has a resolution of 0.25° in latitude and longitude and 40 levels in the vertical, which are compressed toward the surface to reproduce the process of developed turbulence better. The results are compared with observations and with the results of simulations using traditional parameterizations of the upper ocean mixing. It is shown that the model reproduces ocean characteristics correctly, only slightly increasing the computation time in comparison with simple parameterizations. Spatial and temporal characteristics of turbulence are analyzed.  相似文献   

The character of scaling earthquake source spectra for Kamchatka in the 3.5–6.5 magnitude range     

A. A. Gusev  E. M. Guseva 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2017,472(2):211-214

The properties of the source spectra of local shallow-focus earthquakes on Kamchatka in the range of magnitudes M _w = 3.5–6.5 are studied using 460 records of S-waves obtained at the PET station. The family of average source spectra is constructed; the spectra are used to study the relationship between M _w and the key quasi-dimensionless source parameters: stress drop Δσ and apparent stress σ_a. It is found that the parameter Δσ is almost stable, while σ_a grows steadily as the magnitude M _w increases, indicating that the similarity is violated. It is known that at sufficiently large M _w the similarity hypothesis is approximately valid: both parameters Δσ and σ_a do not show any noticeable magnitude dependence. It has been established that M _w ≈ 5.7 is the threshold value of the magnitude when the change in regimes described occurs for the conditions on Kamchatka.  相似文献   

Young Stellar Complexes in the Giant Galaxy UGC 11973     

A. S. Gusev  F. Kh. Sakhibov  O. V. Ezhkova 《Astronomy Reports》2020,64(5):375-383

We present results of the analysis of photometric and spectroscopic observations of the young stellar complexes in the late giant spiral galaxy UGC 11973. Photometric analysis in the $$UBVRI$$ bands have been carried out for the 13 largest complexes. For one of them, metallicity of the surrounding gas $$Z = 0.013 \pm 0.005$$ , the mass $$M = (4.6 \pm 1.6) \times {{10}^{6}}{\kern 1pt} {{M}_{ \odot }}$$ , and the age of the stellar complex $$t = (2.0 \pm 1.1) \times {{10}^{6}}$$ yr were evaluated, using spectroscopic data. It is shown that all complexes are massive ( $$M \geqslant 1.7 \times {{10}^{5}}{\kern 1pt} {{M}_{ \odot }}$$ ) stellar groups younger than $$3 \times {{10}^{8}}$$ yr.  相似文献   

Application of the Land Surface Model SWAP and Global Climate Model INMCM4.0 for Projecting Runoff of Northern Russian Rivers. 2. Projections and Their Uncertainties     

Nasonova  O. N.  Gusev  Ye. M.  Volodin  E. M.  Kovalev  E. E. 《Water Resources》2018,45(2):73-84

Water Resources - The aim of this study was investigating the ability of the AOGCM INMCM4.0 and LSM SWAP to reproduce streamflow of nine northern Russian rivers located in the European Russia and...  相似文献