An updated method for estimating landslide‐event magnitude          下载免费PDF全文

Hakan Tanyaş  Kate E. Allstadt  Cees J. van Westen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(9):1836-1847

Summary statistics derived from the frequency–area distribution (FAD) of inventories of triggered landslides allows for direct comparison of landslides triggered by one event (e.g. earthquake, rainstorm) with another. Such comparisons are vital to understand links between the landslide‐event and the environmental characteristics of the area affected. This could lead to methods for rapid estimation of landslide‐event magnitude, which in turn could lead to estimates of the total triggered landslide area. Previous studies proposed that the FAD of landslides follows an inverse power‐law, which provides the basis to model the size distribution of landslides and to estimate landslide‐event magnitude (mLS), which quantifies the severity of the event. In this study, we use a much larger collection of earthquake‐induced landslide (EQIL) inventories (n=45) than previous studies to show that size distributions are much more variable than previously assumed. We present an updated model and propose a method for estimating mLS and its uncertainty that better fits the observations and is more reproducible, robust, and consistent than existing methods. We validate our model by computing mLS for all of the inventories in our dataset and comparing that with the total landslide areas of the inventories. We show that our method is able to estimate the total landslide area of the events in this larger inventory dataset more successfully than the existing methods. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of dam-induced cyclic patterns on river flow dynamics     

Hakan Tongal  Mehmet C. Demirel  Hamid Moradkhani 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(4):626-641

This paper investigates the impact of the Hungry Horse Dam on streamflow dynamics in the South Fork of the Flathead River, Montana, USA. To this end, pre- and post-dam periods of raw and naturalized streamflow data were analysed. Pettitt’s change point analysis indicated a significant change point in streamflow dynamics due to dam construction. Complexities in the pre- and post-dam periods were evaluated by sample and multi-scale entropy analyses, and the entropies of the post-dam period were found to be higher than those of the pre-dam period. Possible reasons for this, unrelated to the natural hydrological cycle caused by the dam, were analysed using wavelet analyses. The wavelet analyses showed a clear change in the phase relationship between precipitation and streamflow. Finally, weak positive trends found in the hydrological variables indicated the effects of human activities (e.g. dam construction). The results also revealed distorted lead times, which can improve the streamflow forecasts for different lead times.  相似文献   

Seasonal variations and distributions of dissolved free and total carbohydrates at the ?zmir Bay,Aegean Sea     

ALYURUK Hakan  KONTAS Aynur 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,(8)

Seasonal variations and distributions of dissolved carbohydrate concentrations at the ?zmir Bay were investigated with salinity, chlorophyll a(Chl a), and dissolved organic carbon(DOC) levels to understand their relationships.Samples were collected from surface, subsurface and bottom depths at seven stations. DOC concentrations ranged from 32.2 to 244.2 μmol/L, and in general, DOC levels increased from winter to summer, then slightly decreased in autumn. Monosaccharide(MCHO), polysaccharide(PCHO) and total dissolved carbohydrate(TDCHO) levels were found between 0.7–8.3, 0.7–19.5, and 2.6–24.6 μmol/L. DOC, MCHO, PCHO and TDCHO levels were found higher in middle-inner bays, under the influence of anthropogenic inputs, compared to outer bay. Seasonal changes of MCHO/DOC, PCHO/DOC and TDCHO/DOC ratios were statistically significant(p0.05)and the ratios showed decrease trends from winter to summer-autumn seasons. Distributions of TDCHO/DOC ratios at wide ranges(2.5%–42.3%) indicated the presence of newly forming and degrading fractions of DOM.According to results of factor analysis, Chl a, MCHO and TDCHO were explained in the same factor groups. In conclusion, the results showed that dissolved carbohydrate levels in the ?zmir Bay might be influenced by biological processes and terrestrial/anthropogenic inputs.  相似文献   

Susceptibility assessments of shallow earthflows triggered by heavy rainfall at three catchments by logistic regression analyses   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：11  

Tolga Can  Hakan A. Nefeslioglu  Candan Gokceoglu  Harun Sonmez  Tamer Y. Duman 《Geomorphology》2005,72(1-4):250-271

Sometimes regional meteorological anomalies trigger different types of mass movements. In May 1998, the western Black Sea region of Turkey experienced such a meteorological anomaly. Numerous residential and agricultural areas and engineering lifelines were buried under the flood waters. Besides the reactivation of many previously delineated landslides, thousands of small-scale landslides (mostly the earthflow type) occurred all over the region. The earthflows were mainly developed in flysch-type units, which have already presented high landslide concentrations. In this study, three different catchments — namely Agustu, Egerci, and Kelemen — were selected because they have the most landslide-prone geological units of the region. The purposes of the present study are to put forward the spatial distributions of the shallow earthflows triggered, to describe the possible factors conditioning the earthflows, and to produce the shallow earthflow susceptibility maps of the three catchments. The unique condition units (UCU) were employed during the production of susceptibility maps and during statistical analyses. The unique condition units numbered 4052 for the Agustu catchment, 13,241 for the Egerci catchment and 12,314 for the Kelemen catchment. The earthflow intensity is the highest in the Agustu catchment (0.038 flow/UCU) and lowest in the Egerci catchment (0.0035 flow/UCU). Logistic regression analyses were also employed. However, during the analyses, some difficulties were encountered. To overcome the difficulties, a series of sensitivity analyses were performed based on some decision rules introduced in the present study. Considering the decision rules, the proper ratios of UCU free from earthflow (0) / UCU including the earthflow (1) for the Agustu, Egerci and Kelemen catchments were obtained as 3, 6, and 5, respectively. Also, a chart for the proper ratio selection was developed. The regression equations from the selected ratios were then applied to the entire catchment and the earthflow susceptibility maps were produced. The landslide susceptibility maps revealed that 15% of the Agustu catchment, 8% of the Egerci catchment, and 7% of the Kelemen catchment have very high earthflow susceptibility; and most of the earthflows triggered by the May 1998 meteorological event were found in the very high susceptibility zones.  相似文献   

LAND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOS BANOS–KETTLEMAN CITY AREA,CALIFORNIA: PAST AND FUTURE OCCURRENCE     

Hakan Başağaoğlu  Miguel A. Mariño  Tudor M. Botzan 《自然地理学》2013,34(1):67-82

Land subsidence in the western San Joaquin Valley has been studied and monitored for almost six decades. Especially in the 1950s and 1960s, land subsidence had tremendous negative environmental and socioeconomic implications. The rate of land subsidence in the Los Banos–Kettleman City area, however, has decreased during the last three decades as a result of a decrease in groundwater withdrawal, following the importation of surface water to the Valley in late 1960s. The land subsidence in the Valley potentially could be a serious issue if the existing surface water supplies cannot meet increasing water demands during future critical drought periods. In this respect, this paper proposes a preliminary analysis to predict magnitudes of subsidence for the period 2000 to 2040, based on historical occurrences. In this study, extrapolation from earlier subsidence is based on: (1) knowledge of recent post-drought records at extensometers, (2) assumption of a single time porosity scenario, and (3) the premise that pumpage from the confined aquifer gradually will decrease as a result of progressive water quality degradation. Predicted magnitudes of land subsidence in the Los Banos–Kettleman City area are expected to be in the range 0.5 to 4.0 m for the next 4 to 5 decades under the scenario considered in this paper. [Key words: subsidence, groundwater extraction, aquitard, inelastic compaction, active porosity, Los Banos-Kettleman City, California.]  相似文献   

Seasonality of low flows and dominant processes in the Rhine River   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

Hakan Tongal  Mehmet C. Demirel  Martijn J. Booij 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(2):489-503

Low flow forecasting is crucial for sustainable cooling water supply and planning of river navigation in the Rhine River. The first step in reliable low flow forecasting is to understand the characteristics of low flow. In this study, several methods are applied to understand the low flow characteristics of Rhine River basin. In 108 catchments of the Rhine River, winter and summer low flow regions are determined with the seasonality ratio (SR) index. To understand whether different numbers of processes are acting in generating different low flow regimes in seven major sub-basins (namely, East Alpine, West Alpine, Middle Rhine, Neckar, Main, Mosel and Lower Rhine) aggregated from the 108 catchments, the dominant variable concept is adopted from chaos theory. The number of dominant processes within the seven major sub-basins is determined with the correlation dimension analysis. Results of the correlation dimension analysis show that the minimum and maximum required number of variables to represent the low flow dynamics of the seven major sub-basins, except the Middle Rhine and Mosel, is 4 and 9, respectively. For the Mosel and Middle Rhine, the required minimum number of variables is 2 and 6, and the maximum number of variables is 5 and 13, respectively. These results show that the low flow processes of the major sub-basins of the Rhine could be considered as non-stochastic or chaotic processes. To confirm this conclusion, the rescaled range analysis is applied to verify persistency (i.e. non-randomness) in the processes. The estimated rescaled range statistics (i.e. Hurst exponents) are all above 0.5, indicating that persistent long-term memory characteristics exist in the runoff processes. Finally, the mean values of SR indices are compared with the nonlinear analyses results to find significant relationships. The results show that the minimum and maximum numbers of required variables (i.e. processes) to model the dynamic characteristics for five out of the seven major sub-basins are the same, but the observed low flow regimes are different (winter low flow regime and summer low flow regime). These results support the conclusion that a few interrelated nonlinear variables could yield completely different behaviour (i.e. dominant low flow regime).  相似文献   

A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Serkan Öztürk  Yusuf Bayrak  Hakan Çınar  George Ch. Koravos  Theodoros M. Tsapanos 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):471-495

Useful information concerning the earthquake hazard parameters distributed in Turkey and the adjacent areas are estimated in the present work. Based on Gumbel’s I distribution parameters we are able to estimate the hazard values of the investigated area which are the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence of magnitude ≥M during a time span of t-years. Figures concerning the spatial distribution of probabilities and the return periods are plotted and we considered them of particular interest for mapping the earthquake hazard in Turkey and the surrounding areas. These figures effectively produce a brief earthquake hazard atlas. The quantitative appraisal of the hazard parameters is useful for engineers, planners, etc., because it provides a tool for earthquake resistant design.  相似文献   

Settling of Kaolinite in Different Aqueous Environment     

Abidin Kaya  Ali Hakan Ören  Yeliz Yükselen 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2013,31(3):203-218

Settling characteristics of soils carry great importance for geotechnical engineers since sediments properties are formed during the settling of soil particles in an aqueous environment. In this study, settling characteristics of kaolinite are investigated. Different ionic strengths of NaCl, CaCl₂ and AlCl₃ were considered as a function of pH in aqueous environment of varying solid concentrations. Factors affecting the settling characteristics and fabric of kaolinitic sediments have been identified. The results of the study reveal that kaolinite settles in either flocculated or dispersed forms depending on pH and ion concentration. Flocculated settling occurs in acidic pH due to formation of flocs in edge-to-face structure with increasing positive charges at the particle edges. Dispersed settling occurs in alkaline pHs when ionic strength is low. When ionic strength is increased in alkaline pHs, kaolinite particles settle in flocculated form. Furthermore, the results show that pH has a significant role on the final sediment thickness or void ratio of kaolinite. Densely packed structures in alkaline and loosely packed structures in acidic aqueous environments are formed depending on pH level. Results also show that as the solid concentration increases, the settling rate decreases due to buoyancy effect. Finally, the zeta potential of kaolinite is correlated with the final sediment thickness or void ratio of kaolinite as a function of pH. This correlation proves that there is a good agreement between zeta potential and the final sediment thickness or void ratio, especially when the soil is settled in a dispersed form.  相似文献   

Basalt magma genesis and fractionation in collision- and extension-related provinces: A comparison between eastern, central and western Anatolia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hakan oban 《Earth》2007,80(3-4):219-238

Experimental studies of synthetic and natural basalt systems suggest that conditions of magma genesis and fractionation depend fundamentally on mantle temperatures and lithospheric stress fields. In general, compressional settings are more conducive to polybaric fractionation than extensional settings and in this regard, the Anatolian magmatic province offers a natural laboratory for comparing near-coeval basalt eruptions as a function of regional tectonics — compressional (collision-related) régimes dominating in eastern Anatolia and extensional tectonics characterizing a western province related to Aegean Sea opening. Projection of Plio-Quaternary basalt normative compositions from the Western Anatolia Extensional Province (WAEP), the Central Anatolian ‘Ova’ Province (CAOP), and Eastern Anatolia Compressional Province (EACP) are projected onto Ol–Ne–Cpx and Pl–Cpx–Ol planes in the simplified basalt system (Ne–Cpx–Ol–Qz), each showing distinctive liquid lines of descent. WAEP basalts are mostly constrained by low-pressure (< 0.5 GPa) cotectics while CAOP and EACP compositions conform to moderate and/or high-pressure (0.8–3.0 GPa) cotectics. Overall, a quasi-linear shift from moderate and/or high-pressure to low-pressure equilibria matches the westward transgression from compressional east Anatolia to the extensional west Anatolian–Aegean region. Comparison of their respective primary (mantle-equilibrated) magmas–simulated by normalizing their compositions to MgO = 15 wt.% (Mg-15)–with parameterized anhydrous and H₂O-undersaturated experimental melts suggests they segregated from spinel- to garnet-lherzolite mantle facies at pressures between c. 2 and 3 GPa (c. 70–100 km depth) under H₂O-undersaturated conditions. Interpolated potential temperatures (T_p) and lithospheric stretching factors (β) range as follows: (1) eastern Anatolian basalts associated with the Arabian foreland show T_p varying between 1250 and 1400 °C (except for the Karacalidag alkali basalts, south of the Bitlis–Zagros fracture zone, for which T_p ranges up to 1450 °C), for β values of 1.2–1.8. T_p values for central Anatolia (e.g. Sivas) range between 1300 and 1375 °C (except for Karapinar, Egrikuyu and Hasandag, which show < 1150 °C), and β values of 1.3–1.4. For western Anatolian basalts, T_p range mostly between 1250 and 1330 °C, except for a single value for Canakkale of 1400 °C and Kula sample showing T_p < 1200 °C, and β values of 1.3–2.0. Variation of these conditions is as great or greater than that between provinces, although there are clearly significant constraints on the inferred polybaric to low-pressure isobaric fractionation régimes. Covariation of total FeO, TiO₂, La/Yb, Ce/Sm, Zr/Y and Zr/Nb reflects small but significant differences in bulk composition and ambient melt fraction while the covariance of Ce/Sm and Sm/Yb is consistent with the segregation of primitive melts at the spinel- to garnet-lherzolite transition.  相似文献   

Using the Wiener–Levinson algorithm to suppress ground-roll     

Hakan Karsl&#x;  Yusuf Bayrak 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2004,55(3-4):187-197

In land seismic surveys, the seismic data are mostly contaminated by ground-roll noise, high amplitude and low frequency. Since the ground-roll is coherent with reflections and depends on the source, the spectral band of seismic signal and ground-roll always overlap, which can be clearly seen in the spectral domain. So, separating them in time or frequency domain commonly causes waveform distortions and information missing due to cut-off effects. Therefore, the combination of these factors leads to search for alternative filtering methods or processes. We applied the conventional Wiener–Levinson algorithm to extract ground-roll from the seismic data. Then, subtracting it from the seismic data arithmetically performs the ground-roll suppression. To set up the algorithm, linear or nonlinear sweep signals are used as reference noise trace. The frequencies needed in creating a reference noise trace using analytical sweep signal can be approximately estimated in spectral domain. The application of the proposed method based on redesigning of Wiener–Levinson algorithm differs from the usual frequency filtering techniques since the ground-roll is suppressed without cutting signal spectrum. The method is firstly tested on synthetics and then is applied to a shot data from the field. The result obtained from both synthetics and field data show that the ground-roll suppression in this way causes no waveform distortion and no reduction of frequency bandwidth of the data.  相似文献