基于偏最小二乘回归的区域换式风速预报订正技术研究     

杨程  姜瑜君  余贞寿  姜文东  康丽莉  王丽吉 《气象》2019,(5):676-684

利用偏最小二乘回归技术,将预报产品作为自变量,相应的自动气象站观测资料作为因变量,对2013-2016年冬季浙江省中尺度区域模式预报近地面风速进行订正和评估。所选956站中多数站点风速订正后有所改善,通过定量分析可知浙江西部地区整体改善效果最好,其中效果明显站点占91.7%;中部地区改善效果明显站点占86.5%;东部沿海地区改善效果略差,明显改善的站点占67%。各地级市整体表现均不错,除舟山地区为49.9%外,其他地区风速改善比例均超过50%。选取2017年1月20日浙江东北地区沿海大风过程分析发现订正后的风速与观测风速更为接近,在定海大岛站点(靠里)中表现尤为明显,订正后的结果具有显著参考价值。  相似文献   

循环神经网络在雷达临近预报中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

韩丰  龙明盛  李月安  薛峰  王建民 《应用气象学报》2019,30(1):61-69

该文将循环神经网络（recurrent neural network,RNN）应用于雷达临近预报。使用预测循环神经网络（predictive RNN）架构,利用雷达历史组合反射率因子建模,给出雷达组合反射率因子未来1 h的预报结果。预测循环神经网络的核心是在长短时记忆单元（long short-term memory,LSTM）中增加时空记忆模块,能够提取雷达回波不同尺度的空间特征,配合循环神经网络架构,可以有效解决反射率因子预测问题。北京大兴雷达和广州雷达长时间序列的独立检验结果和2个强对流天气个例检验结果表明:该方法和传统的基于交叉相关法的1 h雷达外推临近预报相比,在20 dBZ和30 dBZ检验项目内,临界成功指数（CSI）可以提升0.15~0.30,命中率（POD）提高0.15~0.25,虚警率（FAR）降低0.15~0.20,该方法对反射率因子强度变化有一定预报能力。  相似文献   

Holocene and Eemian climatic optima in the Korean Peninsula based on textural and carbon isotopic records from the stalagmite of the Daeya Cave,South Korea     

Kyoung-nam Jo  Kyung Sik Woo  Hyoun Soo Lim  Hai Cheng  R. Lawrence Edwards  Yongjin Wang  Xiuyang Jiang  Ryeon Kim  Jae Il Lee  Ho Il Yoon  Kyu-Cheul Yoo 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(9-10):1218-1231

Textural and stable isotopic records from the absolute-dated stalagmite of the Daeya Cave (DY-1) provide new insights into the climatic evolution of the Korean Peninsula during the Holocene and Eemian climatic optima. The stalagmite yielded ages of 8572 ± 227 to 5907 ± 158 and 1,23,456 ± 535 to 1,19,837 ± 1089 years, which coincide with the Holocene and Eemian climatic optima, respectively. The stalagmite’s δ¹³C record closely resembles previously reported Chinese speleothem δ¹⁸O data. Thus it can be suggested that textural and geochemical results of the DY-1 reflect East Asian monsoon intensity, which is forced by summer insolation patterns in the northern hemisphere. Lighter carbon isotopic compositions, well-developed fibrous calcite crystals, and their relatively faster growth rate in the stalagmite sample are interpreted to reflect the warmest and wettest climate conditions of the Holocene and Eemian interglacials. Both climatic optima took place when insolation was decreasing from its maximum level, temperature in Greenland was highest, and sea level approached its maximum level. These climatic optima also coincide with decreasing Antarctic temperatures. Compared the DY-1 data to other proxies, it is suggested that the Holocene and Eemian climatic optima developed through a balance among boreal insolation, monsoon intensity, and sea level (also continental ice volume), which are the main climatic forcing factors in the northern hemisphere. These trends also follow the bi-polar seesaw mechanism as previously described.  相似文献   

Precipitation‐runoff processes in Shimen hillslope micro‐catchment of Taihang Mountain,north China     

Shumin Han  Yonghui Yang  Tong Fan  Dengpan Xiao  Juana Paul Moiwo 《水文研究》2012,26(9):1332-1341

Precipitation runoff is a critical hillslope hydrological process for downslope streamflow and piedmont/floodplain recharge. Shimen hillslope micro‐catchment is strategically located in the central foothill region of Taihang Mountains, where runoff is crucial for water availability in the piedmont corridors and floodplains of north China. This study analyzes precipitation‐runoff processes in the Shimen hillslope micro‐catchment for 2006–2008 using locally designed runoff collection systems. The study shows that slope length is a critical factor, next only to precipitation, in terms of runoff yield. Regression analysis also shows that runoff is related positively to precipitation, and negatively to slope length. Soil mantle in the study area is generally thin and is therefore not as critical a runoff factor as slope length. The study shows a significant difference between overland and subsurface runoff. However, that between the 0–10 and 10–20 cm subsurfaces is insignificant. Runoff hardly occurs under light rains (<10 mm), but is clearly noticeable under moderate‐to‐rainstorm events. In the hillslope catchment, vertical infiltration (accounting for 42–84% of the precipitation) dominates runoff processes in subsurface soils and weathered granite gneiss bedrock. A weak lateral flow (at even the soil/bedrock interface) and the generally small runoff suggest strong infiltration loss via deep percolation. This is critical for groundwater recharge in the downslope piedmont corridors and floodplains. This may enhance water availability, ease water shortage, avert further environmental degradation, and reduce the risk of drought/flood in the event of extreme weather conditions in the catchment and the wider north China Plain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Settlements of saturated clean sand deposits in shaking table tests     

T.S. Ueng  C.W. Wu  H.W. Cheng  C.H. Chen 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2010,30(1-2):50-60

Shaking table tests were conducted on saturated clean Vietnam sand in the large biaxial laminar shear box (1880 mm×1880 mm×1520 mm) at the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE), Taiwan. The settlement of sand specimens was measured and evaluated during and after each shaking test. Without liquefaction, the settlement of sand caused by shaking is very small. Significant volume changes occur only when there is liquefaction of sand. The volumetric strain of liquefied sand was calculated according to the measured settlement and the thickness of liquefied sand in the specimen. Relations between volumetric strain after liquefaction and the relative density of saturated clean sand were developed for various shaking durations and earthquake magnitudes. They are not affected by the shaking amplitude, frequency, and direction (one- or multidirectional shaking).  相似文献   

A 3D discrete FEM iterative algorithm for solving the water pipe cooling problems of massive concrete structures          下载免费PDF全文

Jing Cheng  T. C. Li  Xiaoqing Liu  L. H. Zhao 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(4):487-508

Water pipe cooling has been widely used for the temperature control and crack prevention of massive concrete structures such as high dams. Because both under‐cooling and over‐cooling may reduce the efficiency of crack prevention, or even lead to great harm to structures, we need an accurate and robust numerical tool for the prediction of cooling effect. Here, a 3D discrete FEM Iterative Algorithm is introduced, which can simulate the concrete temperature gradient near the pipes, as well as the water temperature rising along the pipes. On the basis of the heat balance between water and concrete, the whole temperature field of the problem can be computed exactly within a few iteration steps. Providing the pipe meshing tool for building the FE model, this algorithm can take account of the water pipe distribution, the variation of water flow, water temperature, and other factors, while the traditional equivalent algorithm based on semi‐theoretical solutions can only solve problems with constant water flow and water temperature. The validation and convergence are proved by comparing the simulated results and analytical solutions of two standard second‐stage cooling problems. Then, a practical concrete block with different cooling schemes is analyzed and the influences of cooling factors are investigated. In the end, detailed guidance for pipe system optimization is provided. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Consolidation in spatially random unsaturated soils based on coupled flow‐deformation simulation          下载免费PDF全文

Y. Cheng  L.L. Zhang  J.H. Li  L.M. Zhang  J.H. Wang  D.Y. Wang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(5):682-706

This paper integrates random field simulation of soil spatial variability with numerical modeling of coupled flow and deformation to investigate consolidation in spatially random unsaturated soil. The spatial variability of soil properties is simulated using the covariance matrix decomposition method. The random soil properties are imported into an interactive multiphysics software COMSOL to solve the governing partial differential equations. The effects of the spatial variability of Young's modulus and saturated permeability together with unsaturated hydraulic parameters on the dissipation of excess pore water pressure and settlement are investigated using an example of consolidation in a saturated‐unsaturated soil column because of loading. It is found that the surface settlement and the pore water pressure profile during the process of consolidation are significantly affected by the spatially varying Young's modulus. The mean value of the settlement of the spatially random soil is more than 100% greater than that of the deterministic case, and the surface settlement is subject to large uncertainty, which implies that consolidation settlement is difficult to predict accurately based on the conventional deterministic approach. The uncertainty of the settlement increases with the scale of fluctuation because of the averaging effect of spatial variability. The effects of spatial variability of saturated permeability k_sat and air entry parameters are much less significant than that of elastic modulus. The spatial variability of air entry value parameters affects the uncertainties of settlement and excess pore pressure mostly in the unsaturated zone. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Can Eddy Forcing be Responsible for the Spatial Structure of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode?     

ZHAO Nan  LI Yan  SHEN Xinyong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(5):584-592

In order to study the origin of the spatial structure of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM),a linear stochastic model is constructed empirically from the output of a GCM run.Optimal stochastic forcing in terms of the maximum variance contribution,which may be potentially related to the maintenance of the NAM,is investigated.Theoretical analysis on the dominant non-modal response to the stochastic forcing shows that this dominance is jointly decided by the properties of forcing and the non-modal grow...  相似文献   

Study on Flow Field Around Vertical Breakwater Under Different Overtopping Conditions Based on Numerical Simulation     

蒋学炼  吴米玲  李炎保 《中国海洋工程》2010,(4)

A numerical wave flume is constructed based on the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations with turbulence closure by a modified k-ε model to study the viscous interactions of waves with vertical breakwaters for different overtopping cases. The governing equations,the turbulence model,boundary conditions,and solution method for the numerical wave flume are introduced briefly. The reliability of the numerical wave flume is examined by comparing the numerical results with the experimental measurement...  相似文献   

Seasonal evaluation of rainfall estimation by four cumulus parameterization schemes and their sensitivity analysis     

Asnor Muizan Ishak  Michaela Bray  Renji Remesan  Dawei Han 《水文研究》2012,26(7):1062-1078

Sustainable water resources management require scientifically sound information on precipitation, as it plays a key role in hydrological responses in a catchment. In recent years, mesoscale weather models in conjunction with hydrological models have gained great attention as they can provide high‐resolution downscaled weather variables. Many cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) have been developed and incorporated into three‐dimensional Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model 5 (MM5). This study has performed a comprehensive evaluation of four CPSs (the Anthes–Kuo, Grell, Betts–Miller and Kain–Fritsch93 schemes) to identify how their inclusion influences the mesoscale model's precipitation estimation capabilities. The study has also compared these four CPSs in terms of variability in rainfall estimation at various horizontal and vertical levels. For this purpose, the MM5 was nested down to resolution of 81 km for Domain 1 (domain span 21 × 81 km) and 3 km for Domain 4 (domain span 16 × 3 km), respectively, with vertical resolutions at 23, 40 and 53 vertical levels. The study was carried out at the Brue catchment in Southwest England using both the ERA‐40 reanalysis data and the land‐based observation data. The performances of four CPs were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the amount of cumulative rainfall in 4 months in 1995 representing the four seasonal months, namely, January (winter), March (spring), July (summer) and October (autumn). It is observed that the Anthes–Kuo scheme has produced inferior precipitation values during spring and autumn seasons while simulations during winter and summer were consistently good. The Betts–Miller scheme has produced some reasonable results, particularly at the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) during winter and summer. The KF2 scheme was the best scheme for the larger‐scale (81 km grid size) domain during winter season at both 23 and 53 vertical levels. This scheme tended to underestimate rainfall for other seasons including the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) in the mesoscale. The Grell scheme was the best scheme in simulating rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to other three schemes with consistently better results in all four seasons and in different domain scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献