This paper employs a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyse how a carbon tax and/or a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) would affect macroeconomic parameters in Turkey. The modelling work is based on three main policy options for the government by 2030, in the context of Turkey’s mitigation target under its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), that is, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 21% from its Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030: (i) improving the productivity of renewable energy by 1% per annum, a target already included in the INDC, (ii) introducing a new flat rate tax of 15% per ton of CO2 (of a reference carbon price in world markets) imposed on emissions originating from carbon-intensive sectors, and (iii) introducing a new ETS with caps on emission permits. Our base path scenario projects that GHG emissions in 2030 will be much lower than Turkey’s BAU trajectory of growth from 430 Mt CO2-eq in 2013 to 1.175 Mt CO2-eq by 2030, implying that the government’s commitment is largely redundant. On the other hand, if the official target is assumed to be only a simple reduction percentage in 2030 (by 21%), but based on our more realistic base path, the government’s current renewable energy plans will not be sufficient to reach it.
Turkey’s official INDC is based on over-optimistic assumptions of GDP growth and a highly carbon-intensive development pathway;
A carbon tax and/or an ETS would be required to reach the 21% reduction target over a realistic base path scenario for 2030;
The policy options considered in this paper have some effects on major sectors’ shares in total value-added. Yet the reduction in the shares of agriculture, industry, and transportation does not go beyond 1%, while the service sector seems to benefit from most of the policy options;
Overall employment would be affected positively by the renewable energy target, carbon tax, and ETS through the creation of new jobs;
Unemployment rates are lower, economic growth is stronger, and households become better off to a larger extent under an ETS than carbon taxation.
In this paper, the Electrical Resistivity Tomography and magnetic methods, including Tilt Angle and Euler Deconvolution, have been used in a comperative manner to determine the lineaments and depths of buried archeological structures. The zero contours of the tilt angle correspond to the boundaries of buried structures and the half distance between ±π/4 rad corresponds to the depth to the top of the structures. Also, in order to estimate the positions and depths of buried structures in the study area, the Euler Deconvolution method was applied to the total magnetic field data. All of the methods have a good correlation about determination of the horizontal locations and depths of the buried structures. The archeological excavations based on the geophysical investigations have demonstrated that the buried structure is an ancient cistern building because of the unearthed pools. Therefore, the interpretations of the geophysical methods and fiction of the paper were made according to the ancient cistern building. With this study, a buried ancient cistern structure was modeled and revealed by the geophysical methods for the first time. Additionally, using of these geophysical techniques in a comparative manner for the archaeogeophysical work will greatly contribute to future studies. 相似文献
In this study, the seismic stability of arch dam abutments is investigated within the framework of the probabilistic method. A large concrete arch dam is considered with six wedges for each abutment. The seismic safety of the dam abutments is studied with quasi-static analysis for different hazard levels. The Londe limit equilibrium method is utilized to calculate the stability of the wedges in the abutments. Since the finite element method is time-consuming, the neural network is used as an alternative for calculating the wedge safety factor. For training the neural network, 1000 random samples are generated and the dam response is calculated. The direction of applied acceleration is changed within 5-degree intervals to reveal the critical direction corresponding to the minimum safety factor. The Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is employed for sample generation, and the safety level is determined with reliability analysis. Three sample numbers of 1000, 2000 and 4000 are used to examine the average and standard deviation of the results. The global sensitivity analysis is used to identify the effects of random variables on the abutment stability. It is shown that friction, cohesion and uplift pressure have the most significant effects on the wedge stability variance.
Natural Hazards - Landslide and human mortality have been a common phenomenon in the Rangamati district over the past several years. This study examined the geotechnical properties (e.g., grain... 相似文献
Load tests of drilled shafts are often performed using Osterberg cell (O-cell) testing, a popular load test method for drilled shafts, which measures both side and tip resistance. However, it is common that only one of the resistance components can be fully mobilized. Therefore, extrapolation of the partially mobilized resistance is often required to determine the total resistance or the equivalent top-down curve. The extrapolation tends to introduce errors to the constructed total resistance values, which subsequently affect the calibrated resistance factors required for the LRFD design of drilled shafts. In this study, eight O-cell tests of drilled shafts with total measured resistances close to the failure criteria defined by FHWA, 5% of the shaft diameter (B), were collected among 64 drilled shaft load tests from Louisiana and Mississippi. For each of the eight cases, extrapolation was performed on both tip and side movement curves for the construction of the equivalent top-down load-settlement (ELT) curves. Data points from the measured side or tip movement curve were removed systematically to create a total of 80 cases with partially mobilized movement curves, and extrapolation exercises were performed on each fabricated case to obtain its equivalent top-down curve. The error of bias for each fabricated case was determined for statistical analyses. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed on the bias errors to model the bias errors caused by extrapolation. Calibrated resistance factors were determined and compared between the original database and fabricated database needing extrapolation. A correction method is proposed, based on a linear regression relationship, to estimate and minimize the extrapolation error of bias for less mobilized databases.
The effects of incoherency and wave-passage on the nonlinear responses of concrete arch dams are investigated in this study. A double curvature arch dam is selected as a numerical example. The reservoir is modeled as a compressible material and the foundation is modeled as a massless medium. Ground motion time-histories are artificially generated using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. Four different finite element models (FEM) are considered: uniform excitation; incoherence effect; wave passage effect; and both incoherence and wave passage effects. It was revealed that modeling multiple-supports excitation could have a significant impact on the structural response of the dam by inducing a pseudo-static effect. Also, it was concluded that the coherency effect overshadows the wave passage effect and the results obtained from non-uniform excitation of FEM, including the wave passage effect, is close to the results of the FEM when it is uniformly excited. 相似文献
Leachate treatment using a membrane bioreactor is an effective method. This study presents a configuration including an anaerobic bioreactor and a membrane module, called submerged anaerobic membrane bioreactor (SAnMBR), for treating influent with leachate/acetate rations (L/A), that were kept to be 10, 25, 50, 75, and 100% at a constant SRT (100 days). COD removal decreased from 85 to 75% when the L/A ratio increased from 10 to 100. To prevent membrane fouling, a SAnMBR was operated in the case of circulation of mixed liquor under continuous and intermittent suction. The average fluxes were 2.60 and 0.40 L/m2 h at the periods of intermittent and continuous suction, respectively. The methane production varied between 0.25 and 0.32 L CH4/g CODremoved. 相似文献
The coastal water quality of Çanakkale Dardanelles (Turkey) was assessed based on bacteriological data and physical–chemical parameters. Total coliform (TC), fecal coliform (FC), and enterococci (ENT) bacteria along with physicochemical parameters were measured monthly up to a year at 12 different sampling sites located through both coastal lines of the strait. The fecal bacteria were abounded at several sampling sites such as B1, B3, G3, and G4 due to direct wastewater discharges and septic leakages or overloading. Storm water runoff and sediment resuspension were important pathways for the transport of coliform and ENT bacteria to the Dardanelles, as the region receives high precipitation and strong winds for most part of the year. The values of pH, temperature, and salinity were in typical ranges for the studied area. The microbiological and physicochemical data were correlated individually and in combination. The best fit correlations for bacterial data were attained between TC and FC or TC and ENT (R = 0.67 or ?0.68), while those for the combined data were obtained for TC with temperature (R = 0.94) and TC with salinity (R = ? 0.70). 相似文献
Uniform tetrahedra are commonly used elementary bodies for gravity calculations from which arbitrary polyhedra can be composed.
A simple derivation of the gravity effect is presented for the apex P of the tetrahedron expanded from P to an arbitrarily
oriented plane triangle. Integration of its potential effect in a rotated coordinate system applies vector algebra and renders
the anomalous potential depending on the distance of P over the triangle plain and a function of the triangle coordinates.
Partial differentiation by moving P infinitesimally in z-direction leads to two terms, a simple and a complex one; they can
be understood as describing the same difference from two points of view: leaving P at the apex of the changed polyhedron or
moving P off the unchanged polyhedron. Both views imply the same shape change and the sum over the polyhedron is thus numerically
equal. Hence we need to calculate only the one of the terms of the differential which is simpler. The calculation of the gravity
effect is numerically simplified and more stable. This has been tested for many models and is demonstrated by two examples. 相似文献
