Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications     

Dao Hua Zhang  Tsz Leung Yip  Chiu-On Ng 《Marine Policy》2009

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.  相似文献   

Hydrological responses to climatic variability in a cold agricultural region          下载免费PDF全文

Taufique H. Mahmood  John W. Pomeroy  Howard S. Wheater  Helen M. Baulch 《水文研究》2017,31(4):854-870

Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?          下载免费PDF全文

Bettina Matti  Helen E. Dahlke  Bastien Dieppois  Damian M. Lawler  Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4354-4370

Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.  相似文献   

IGU Commission on Health and Developement     

Helen Roy  Eric Wajnberg 《GeoJournal》1989,18(4):451-451

The International Geographical Union Reports

IGU Commission on Population Geography  相似文献   

Focal mechanisms of large earthquakes in the South Island of New Zealand: implications for the accommodation of Pacific-Australia plate motion     

Helen Anderson  Terry Webb  James Jackson 《Geophysical Journal International》1993,115(3):1032-1054

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Ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange: An accessible lab simulation for considering biological effects     

David A. Noever  Helen C. Matsos  Raymond J. Cronise  Loren L. Looger  Rachna A. Relwani  Vladimir I. Nikora 《Climatic change》1994,27(3):299-320

Phytoplankton is considered a key component mediating the ocean-atmospheric exchange of carbon dioxide and oxygen. Lab simulations which model biological responses to atmospheric change are difficult to translate into natural settings owing in part to the vertical migration of phytoplankton. In the sea this vertical migration acts to regulate actual carbon dioxide consumption. To capture some critical properties of this vertical material transfer, we monitored the effects of atmospheric CO₂ on dense suspensions of bioconvecting microorganisms. Bioconvection refers to the spontaneous patterns of circulation which arise among such upwardly swimming cells as alga, protozoa, zoospore and large bacteria. Gravity, phototaxis and chemotaxis have all been implicated as affecting pattern-forming ability. The ability of a biologically active suspension to detect atmospheric changes offers a unique method to quantify organism adjustment and vertical migration. With increasing CO₂, bioconvection patterns in alga (P. parva) and protozoa (T. pyriformis) lose their robustness, and surface cell populations retreat from the highest CO₂ regions. Cell movement (both percent motile and mean velocity) generally diminishes. A general program of image analysis yields statistically significant variations in macroscopic migration patterns; both fractal dimension and various crystallographic parameters correlate strongly with carbon dioxide content.  相似文献   

Computer aided analysis of rock slope stability     

C. F. Leung  S. C. Kheok 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》1987,20(2):111-122

Summary A computer program is written in basic language on a micro-computer to carrying out kinematic analysis of rock slope stability. The program is capable of handling plane sliding, wedge sliding and toppling of rock slopes. Applications of the program are demonstrated by examples on opencast mine excavations and highway cuts. The computer output are presented in the form of tables and illustrations for ease of interpretation. As micro-computers are readily available in design offices nowadays, the present work provides an efficient means for engineers to analyse and design rock slope excavations.  相似文献   

Sociospatial aspects of Australian aboriginal underdevelopment. Empirical evidence from the East kimberley     

Helen Ross  David Drakakis-Smith 《Geoforum》1983,14(3):325-332

Prior to the penetration of the European capitalist economy into central and northern Australia, the Aboriginal mode of production was one of hunting and gathering. Spiritual, economic and social relationships betwen people and land produced a spatial distribution of small bands of people living on their traditional lands. To the incoming white settlers the low population density and type of land use appeared uneconomic. This observation was used as ideological justification for the expropriation and development of the land for commercial pastoralism. This paper discusses the articulation of the Aboriginal and European modes of production in the East Kimberley region of northwest Australia. It argues that the introduced capitalist economy virtually destroyed the Aboriginal means of subsistence, incorporating Aborigines into the new mode of production within various subordinate roles. The exploitation of Aborigines, formerly as labour and now predominantely as consumers, is fundamental to the maintenance of the capitalist mode of production in pastoral areas. The spatial effects of the dominant mode of production have been to centralise Aborigines in locations suited to the various phases of development of the European economy, undermining the traditional Aboriginal social-spatial structure. The centralisation of the Aboriginal population also enhances the opportunities for the further development of the mining industry, which is in direct competition with Aboriginal interests in land. Aboriginal resistance to these spatial tendencies is intense in many quarters, but efforts to return to living on traditional lands and to develop alternative ways of living are hampered by the dominant mode of production.  相似文献   

Miscellaneous information 1989 (Addendum)     

Joseph Arditti  Adisheshappa Nagaraja Rao  Helen Nair 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1993,55(Z1):128

Miscellaneous information 1989 (Addendum)  相似文献   

Manual of planktonic foraminifera: J.A. Postuma. Elsevier,Amsterdam-London-New York, 1971, 420 pp., 1153 illustrations, 3 charts,Dfl. 75.00 (U.S.$ 20.75).     

Helen Tappan 《Sedimentary Geology》1972

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