Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method to the Predictability Study of the Kuroshio Large Meander   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

WANG Qiang  MU Mu  Henk A. DIJKSTRA 《大气科学进展》2012,29(1):118-134

A reduced-gravity barotropic shallow-water model was used to simulate the Kuroshio path variations.The results show that the model was able to capture the essential features of these path variations.We used one simulation of the model as the reference state and investigated the effects of errors in model parameters on the prediction of the transition to the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) state using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation (CNOP-P) method.Because of their relatively large uncertainties,three model parameters were considered:the interfacial friction coefficient,the wind-stress amplitude,and the lateral friction coefficient.We determined the CNOP-Ps optimized for each of these three parameters independently,and we optimized all three parameters simultaneously using the Spectral Projected Gradient 2 (SPG2) algorithm.Similarly,the impacts caused by errors in initial conditions were examined using the conditional nonlinear optimal initial perturbation (CNOP-I) method.Both the CNOP-I and CNOP-Ps can result in significant prediction errors of the KLM over a lead time of 240 days.But the prediction error caused by CNOP-I is greater than that caused by CNOP-P.The results of this study indicate not only that initial condition errors have greater effects on the prediction of the KLM than errors in model parameters but also that the latter cannot be ignored.Hence,to enhance the forecast skill of the KLM in this model,the initial conditions should first be improved,the model parameters should use the best possible estimates.  相似文献   

A global hybrid coupled model based on atmosphere-SST feedbacks     

Andrea A. Cimatoribus  Sybren S. Drijfhout  Henk A. Dijkstra 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(3-4):745-760

A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater and wind-stress. A basic but consistent representation of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks is captured in the hybrid coupled model and it is more than 10 times faster than the fully coupled climate model. The hybrid coupled model reaches a steady state with a climate close to the one of the fully coupled climate model, and the two models also have a similar response (collapse) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a freshwater hosing applied in the northern North Atlantic.  相似文献   

Towards a data assimilation system for morphodynamic modeling: bathymetric data assimilation for wave property estimation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ivan D. Garcia  Ghada El Serafy  Arnold Heemink  Henk Schuttelaars 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(5):489-505

Data assimilation is mainly concerned with the proper management of uncertainties. The main objective of the present work is to implement and analyze a data assimilation technique capable of assimilating bathymetric data into a coupled flow, wave, and morphodynamic model. For the case presented here, wave significant height, wave direction of incidence, and wave peak period are being optimized based on bathymetric data taken from a twin experiment. An adjoint-free variational scheme is used. In this approach, a linear reduced order model (ROM) is constructed as an approximation of the full model. The ROM is an autoregressive model of order 1 (AR1) that preserves the parametrization. Since the ROM is linear, the construction of its adjoint is straightforward, making the implementation of 4D variational data assimilation effortless. The scheme is able to update the morphodynamic model satisfactorily despite the fact that the model shows nonlinear behavior even for very small perturbations of all three parameters. The size and direction of the perturbations necessary for constructing the ROM have a significant impact on the performance of the technique.  相似文献   

Holocene relative sea-level curves for the German North sea coast     

Friederike Bungenstock  Henk J. T. Weerts 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(4):1083-1090

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Comparison of longitudinal equilibrium profiles of estuaries in idealized and process-based models   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Anneke?HibmaEmail author  Henk M.?Schuttelaars  Zheng B.?Wang 《Ocean Dynamics》2003,53(3):252-269

The process-based morphodynamic model Delft3D-MOR and the idealized model of schuttelaars and De Swart (2000) are compared with each other. The differences between the two models in their mathematical-physical formulation as well as the boundary conditions are identified. Their effect on producing cross-sectionally averaged morphological equilibria of tidal inlets with arbitrary length and forced at the seaward boundary by a prescribed M₂ and M₄ sea- surface elevation is studied and an inventory is made of all relevant differences. The physical formulations in the source code of Delft3D-MOR are modified in various steps to resemble the formulations in the idealized model. The effect of each of the differences between the idealized and process-based model are studied by comparing the results of the idealized model to those of the adapted process-based model. The results of the idealized model can be qualitatively reproduced by the process-based model as long as the same morphological boundary condition is applied at the open sea end. This means that the simplifications concerning the mathematical formulation of the physical processes in the idealized model can be justified. Furthermore, it can be inferred that the morphological boundary condition at the open sea end is an essential element in controlling the behaviour of morphodynamic models for tidal inlets and estuaries.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg  相似文献   

Joost Businger–His Career In Boundary-Layer Meteorology In A Nutshell     

Henk?De?BruinEmail author  Frans?Nieuwstadt 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,116(2):149-159

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On using simple time-of-travel capture zone delineation methods     

Ceric A  Haitjema H 《Ground water》2005,43(3):408-412

As part of its Wellhead Protection Program, the U.S. EPA mandates the delineation of "time-of-travel capture zones" as the basis for the definition of wellhead protection zones surrounding drinking water production wells. Depending on circumstances the capture zones may be determined using methods that range from simply drawing a circle around the well to sophisticated ground water flow and transport modeling. The simpler methods are attractive when faced with the delineation of hundreds or thousands of capture zones for small public drinking water supply wells. On the other hand, a circular capture zone may not be adequate in the presence of an ambient ground water flow regime. A dimensionless time-of-travel parameter T is used to determine when calculated fixed-radius capture zones can be used for drinking water production wells. The parameter incorporates aquifer properties, the magnitude of the ambient ground water flow field, and the travel time criterion for the time-of-travel capture zone. In the absence of interfering flow features, three different simple capture zones can be used depending on the value of T . A modified calculated fixed-radius capture zone proves protective when T < 0.1, while a more elongated capture zone must be used when T > 1. For values of T between 0.1 and 1, a circular capture zone can be used that is eccentric with respect to the well. Finally, calculating T allows for a quick assessment of the validity of circular capture zones without redoing the delineation with a computer model.  相似文献   

A uranium-thorium dated late Eemian or early midlandian organic deposit from near Kilfenora between Spa and Fenit,Co. Kerry,Ireland     

Henk Heijnis  Julie Ruddock  Peter Coxon 《第四纪科学杂志》1993,8(1):31-43

This paper discusses the dating of stratigraphically important Quaternary sequences from a site near Fenit, Co. Kerry, which have been the subject of debate since they were first described by Mitchell in 1970. The overall stratigraphy of the Quaternary deposits have been investigated and detailed analyses of the organic material carried out. Pollen from biogenic sediments have been analysed and samples of peat dated using the uranium-thorium disequilibrium method. The pollen assemblages match no others previously recorded in Ireland and appear to represent a cool temperate phase following the last interglacial. The uranium-thorium dates of between 114000 and 123 000 yr BP indicate that the deposit dates from Oxygen Isotope Stage 5, possibly post-dating the last temperate stage (the Eemian Stage interglacial; Oxygen Isotope Substage 5e). The dating of this deposit and the realisation that it is not penultimate temperate stage (Gortian) in age invalidates much recent speculation on the age of the Gortian interglacial.  相似文献   

Application of the Maslov Seismogram Method in Three Dimensions     

Chapman  Chris H.  Keers  Henk 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2002,46(4):615-649

Asymptotic methods provide an efficient way to compute seismograms in heterogeneous media. However, zeroth-order ray theory, the simplest of the asymptotic methods, often fails because of the presence of caustics. Maslov theory is an extension of zeroth-order ray theory, which gives a uniformly valid expression of the wavefield everywhere, including the caustics. This result is given in terms of an integral of ray data over one or two ray parameters. It is shown in this paper how geometrical arrivals are constructed in the one and two-parameter Maslov integrals.In practice Maslov seismograms have been computed using only one ray parameter. However, in three-dimensional media two parameters are needed to uniquely define a ray. In this paper we present an efficient algorithm to compute two-parameter Maslov integrals. The Maslov integral is evaluated by computing the frequency-to-time Fourier transform prior to integration over the ray parameters. The wavefield is then discretized by smoothing with a boxcar function. The resulting expression, which only requires the results of ordinary kinematic and dynamic ray tracing, cen be computed efficiently and robustly. A numerical example is given that illustrates the use of this algorithm.  相似文献   

The Cenozoic evolution of the Roer Valley Rift System integrated at a European scale     

Laurent Michon  Ronald T. Van Balen  Olivier Merle  Henk Pagnier 《Tectonophysics》2003,367(1-2):101-126

The Roer Valley Rift System (RVRS) is located between the West European rift and the North Sea rift system. During the Cenozoic, the RVRS was characterized by several periods of subsidence and inversion, which are linked to the evolution of the adjacent rift systems. Combination of subsidence analysis and results from the analysis of thickness distributions and fault systems allows the determination of the Cenozoic evolution and quantification of the subsidence. During the Early Paleocene, the RVRS was inverted (Laramide phase). The backstripping method shows that the RVRS was subsequently mainly affected by two periods of subsidence, during the Late Paleocene and the Oligocene–Quaternary time intervals, separated by an inversion phase during the Late Eocene. During the Oligocene and Miocene periods, the thickness of the sediments and the distribution of the active faults reveal a radical rotation of the direction of extension by about 70–80° (counter clockwise). Integration of these results at a European scale indicates that the Late Paleocene subsidence was related to the evolution of the North Sea basins, whereas the Oligocene–Quaternary subsidence is connected to the West European rift evolution. The distribution of the inverted provinces also shows that the Early Paleocene inversion (Laramide phase) has affected the whole European crust, whereas the Late Eocene inversion was restricted to the southern North Sea basins and the Channel area. Finally, comparison of these deformations in the European crust with the evolution of the Alpine chain suggests that the formation of the Alps has controlled the evolution of the European crust since the beginning of the Cenozoic.  相似文献