Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles     

Tokuta Yokohata  James D. Annan  Matthew Collins  Charles S. Jackson  Hideo Shiogama  Masahiro Watanabe  Seita Emori  Masakazu Yoshimori  Manabu Abe  Mark J. Webb  Julia C. Hargreaves 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2745-2763

We investigate the performance of the newest generation multi-model ensemble (MME) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We compare the ensemble to the previous generation models (CMIP3) as well as several single model ensembles (SMEs), which are constructed by varying components of single models. These SMEs range from ensembles where parameter uncertainties are sampled (perturbed physics ensembles) through to an ensemble where a number of the physical schemes are switched (multi-physics ensemble). We focus on assessing reliability against present-day climatology with rank histograms, but also investigate the effective degrees of freedom (EDoF) of the fields of variables which makes the statistical test of reliability more rigorous, and consider the distances between the observation and ensemble members. We find that the features of the CMIP5 rank histograms, of general reliability on broad scales, are consistent with those of CMIP3, suggesting a similar level of performance for present-day climatology. The spread of MMEs tends towards being “over-dispersed” rather than “under-dispersed”. In general, the SMEs examined tend towards insufficient dispersion and the rank histogram analysis identifies them as being statistically distinguishable from many of the observations. The EDoFs of the MMEs are generally greater than those of SMEs, suggesting that structural changes lead to a characteristically richer range of model behaviours than is obtained with parametric/physical-scheme-switching ensembles. For distance measures, the observations and models ensemble members are similarly spaced from each other for MMEs, whereas for the SMEs, the observations are generally well outside the ensemble. We suggest that multi-model ensembles should represent an important component of uncertainty analysis.  相似文献   

Adaptation to climate change impacts on urban storm water: a case study in Arvika, Sweden   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jonas Olsson  Hideo Amaguchi  Elin Alsterhag  Maria Dåverhög  Per-Erik Adrian  Akira Kawamura 《Climatic change》2013,116(2):231-247

Already today, the functionality of many sewer and storm water systems are not up to the required standards and consequently flooding problems are experienced in case of heavy storms. System upgrades are required, which are however complicated by the expected future increase in short-term rainfall intensities as a result of climate change. In this case study, focusing on the town of Arvika, Sweden, this issue is investigated in three main steps. In the first, extreme value analyses of 30-min rainfall from an ensemble of climate projections are carried out to estimate the future increase and generate a future design storm. In the second, the existing system’s response to both today’s and future design storms are simulated by a coarse sewer model setup (MOUSE) and a detailed coupled surface-sewer model setup (TSR). In the third and final step, system upgrades are designed and evaluated by both models. The results indicate an increase by 10–30 % of today’s short-term rainfall extremes by the end of the century. Upgrading the system to achieve a satisfactory performance for the future design storm would cost approximately twice as much as an upgrade based on today’s design storm.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Temperature scaling pattern dependence on representative concentration pathway emission scenarios     

Yasuhiro Ishizaki  Hideo Shiogama  Seita Emori  Tokuta Yokohata  Toru Nozawa  Tomoo Ogura  Manabu Abe  Masakazu Yoshimori  Kiyoshi Takahashi 《Climatic change》2014,125(2):277-277

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Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming     

Youichi Kamae  Masahiro Watanabe  Masahide Kimoto  Hideo Shiogama 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2569-2583

In this the second of a two-part study, we examine the physical mechanisms responsible for the increasing contrast of the land–sea surface air temperature (SAT) in summertime over the Far East, as observed in recent decades and revealed in future climate projections obtained from a series of transient warming and sensitivity experiments conducted under the umbrella of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. On a global perspective, a strengthening of land–sea SAT contrast in the transient warming simulations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is attributed to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). However, in boreal summer, the strengthened contrast over the Far East is reproduced only by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration. In response to SST increase alone, the tropospheric warming over the interior of the mid- to high-latitude continents including Eurasia are weaker than those over the surrounding oceans, leading to a weakening of the land–sea SAT contrast over the Far East. Thus, the increasing contrast and associated change in atmospheric circulation over East Asia is explained by CO₂-induced continental warming. The degree of strengthening of the land–sea SAT contrast varies in different transient warming scenarios, but is reproduced through a combination of the CO₂-induced positive and SST-induced negative contributions to the land–sea contrast. These results imply that changes of climate patterns over the land–ocean boundary regions are sensitive to future scenarios of CO₂ concentration pathways including extreme cases.  相似文献   

Petrologic evolution of Palau,a nascent island arc     

James W. Hawkins  Osamu Ishizuka 《Island Arc》2009,18(4):599-641

Palau Islands, 7°30′N, are the only emergent feature on the more than 2500‐km‐long Kyushu–Palau Ridge. Small islands are mainly uplifted reef carbonate. Larger islands are volcanic with basalt to dacite and rare boninite. Polymict breccia is abundant: sills, flows, and dykes are common but pillows are rare. Palau Trench samples include all types found on the islands as well as high‐Mg basalt. Volcanism began in the late Eocene and ended by early Miocene. All igneous rocks comprise a low‐K primitive island arc‐tholeiite series. None are mid‐ocean ridge basalts. Rare earth elements and high field‐strength elements indicate a depleted mantle source. Elevated large ion lithophile elements and light rare earth elements indicate influx of ‘dehydration fluid’. Ce/Ce* and Eu/Eu* ratios show no evidence for recycling of arc‐derived clastics. Plate reconstructions and paleomagnetic data suggest that the arc probably formed on the trace of a transform fault that migrated northward and rotated clockwise up to 90°. Episodes of transtension caused upwelling of hot mantle into depleted mantle and sheared altered rocks of the transform. Episodes of transpression may have initiated subduction of old seafloor with a thin cover of pelagic sediments deposited far from terrigenous sediment sources.  相似文献   

Sediment and carbon storages in the Yahagi River Delta during the Holocene,central Japan     

Kiyoshi Fujimoto  Kumiko Kawase  Shigehiro Ishizuka  Koji Shichi  Akio Ohira  Hiroshi Adachi 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(15-16):1472-1480

We estimated stored sediment and carbon during the Holocene for each layer of the Yahagi River Delta, central Japan and discussed the provenance of stored carbon. To estimate the bulk density and the carbon content of each layer, we collected two 30 m deep undisturbed cores. The volume of each layer was calculated using ArcView 3D analyst. Although the volume ratio of each layer to the total volume was calculated to be 9.5% for the top mud layer, 34.9% for the upper sand layer, 32.8% for the middle mud layer and 22.9% for the lower sand layer, the mass ratio of each layer to the total mass was calculated to be 8.5, 40.9, 25.2 and 25.4%, respectively, and the stored carbon ratio in each layer to the total stored carbon was 20.4, 4.7, 55.9 and 18.9%, respectively. These results suggest that the top mud and middle mud layers have a significant role as a place for carbon sequestration during postglacial time. Total stored carbon in the study area of only 92.1 km² was estimated at 26 Tg C, which is equivalent to 0.003% of atmospheric carbon. This suggests that deltas on the globe have accumulated a massive amount of carbon during the evolution. The inorganic carbon ratio to total carbon reached more than 45% around the boundary between the middle mud and lower sand layers. The increasing trend in the C_org/N_total ratio accompanied with a decrease in δ¹³C from the bottom to the top horizon in the middle mud layer indicates a gradual increase in terrestrial organic matter contribution. The relative proportion of terrestrially derived materials decreases with increasing distance seaward.  相似文献   

Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature: a multi-scale attribution analysis     

Nikolaos Christidis  Peter A. Stott  Francis W. Zwiers  Hideo Shiogama  Toru Nozawa 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(7-8):1139-1156

The role of anthropogenic forcings in temperature changes during recent decades is investigated over a range of spatial scales. Changes in the annual mean surface temperature and also in the warmest night of the year, which has implications for human health, are considered. Distributions of regional trends with and without the effect of human activity are produced, using constraints from a global optimal detection analysis. Anthropogenic forcings are estimated to have more than doubled the likelihood of mean warming in all regions considered except central North America, where results are more model dependent. The likelihood of warming of the warmest night has also increased, but the estimated change is more uncertain. Inferences on sub-continental scales are indicative rather than definitive because of the absence of locally important forcings and processes in model simulations, as well as model biases. As model inconsistencies may impact regional analyses, a multi-model approach is essential.  相似文献   

Motion of a charged particle around a black hole permeated by magnetic field and its chaotic characters     

Y. Nakamura  T. Ishizuka 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1993,210(1-2):105-108

Motion of a charged particle around a black hole immersed in magnetic field is calculated. It is shown that this motion has a chaotic property depending on initial parameters.  相似文献   

Palaeointensities of the Auckland geomagnetic excursions by the LTD-DHT Shaw method     

Nobutatsu Mochizuki  Hideo Tsunakawa  John Cassidy 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2006,154(2):168-179

We report new palaeointensity results concerning the Auckland geomagnetic excursions using the double heating technique of the Shaw method with low temperature demagnetisation (LTD-DHT Shaw method). The excursional palaeodirections recorded in six volcanoes of the Auckland volcanic field, New Zealand, have been classified into three groups: north-down (ND), west-up (WU) and south-up (SU) directions. In the present study, five to six consistent palaeointensities have been obtained from each of five volcanoes recording the Auckland geomagnetic excursions. The Wiri (27 ka), Crater Hill and Puketutu volcanoes (ND group) yielded mean palaeointensities of 10.6 ± 1.2 (1σ), 11.8 ± 2.8 and 11.1 ± 0.4 μT, respectively. The Hampton Park volcano (55 ka; WU group) gave 9.5 ± 1.2 μT while the McLennan Hills volcano (SU group) gave 2.5 ± 0.5 μT. It is notable that consistent palaeointensities have been obtained from the three different volcanoes which have almost the same palaeodirections (ND group), possibly supporting the reliability of the palaeointensity data. These five palaeointensities for the Auckland geomagnetic excursions correspond to virtual dipole moments (VDMs) of 0.6-2.1 × 10²² A m², whereas three mean palaeointensities obtained from the Auckland volcanoes having non-excursional palaeodirections are 13.1-40.0 μT giving stronger VDMs of 2.1-6.9 × 10²² A m². These results suggest that the dipole component of the geomagnetic field reduced to about 2 × 10²² A m² or less during the Auckland geomagnetic excursions.  相似文献   

The importance of crustal structure in explaining the observed uncertainties in ground motion estimation     

John Douglas  Hideo Aochi  Peter Suhadolc  Giovanni Costa 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2007,5(1):17-26

In this short article, the possible reduction in the standard deviation of empirical ground motion estimation equations through the modelling of the effect of crustal structure is assessed through the use of ground-motion simulations. Simulations are computed for different source-to-site distances, focal depths, focal mechanisms and for crustal models of the Pyrenees, the western Alps and the upper Rhine Graben. Through the method of equivalent hypocentral distance introduced by Douglas et al. [(2004) Bull Earthquake Eng 2(1): 75–99] to model the effect of crustal structure in empirical equations, the scatter associated with such equations derived using these simulated data could be reduced to zero if real-to-equivalent hypocentral distance mapping functions were derived for every combination of mechanism, depth and crustal structure present in the simulated dataset. This is, obviously, impractical. The relative importance of each parameter in affecting the decay of ground motions is assessed here. It is found that variation in focal depth is generally more important than the effect of crustal structure when deriving the real-to-equivalent hypocentral distance mapping functions. In addition, mechanism and magnitude do not have an important impact on the decay rate.  相似文献