The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Robert Vautard  Andreas Gobiet  Daniela Jacob  Michal Belda  Augustin Colette  Michel Déqué  Jesús Fernández  Markel García-Díez  Klaus Goergen  Ivan Güttler  Tomáš Halenka  Theodore Karacostas  Eleni Katragkou  Klaus Keuler  Sven Kotlarski  Stephanie Mayer  Erik van Meijgaard  Grigory Nikulin  Mirta Patarčić  John Scinocca  Stefan Sobolowski  Martin Suklitsch  Claas Teichmann  Kirsten Warrach-Sagi  Volker Wulfmeyer  Pascal Yiou 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2555-2575

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.  相似文献   

Evaluating climate change at the Croatian Adriatic from observations and regional climate models’ simulations     

Čedo Branković  Ivan Güttler  Marjana Gajić-Čapka 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2353-2373

The 2m temperature (T2m) and precipitation from five regional climate models (RCMs), which participated in the ENSEMBLES project and were integrated at a 25-km horizontal resolution, are compared with observed climatological data from 13 stations located in the Croatian coastal zone. The twentieth century climate was simulated by forcing RCMs with identical boundary conditions from the ERA-40 reanalysis and the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model (GCM); climate change in the twenty-first century is based on the A1B scenario and assessed from the GCM-forced RCMs’ integrations. When forced by ERA-40, most RCMs exhibit cold bias in winter which contributes to an overestimation of the T2m annual cycle amplitude and the errors in interannual variability are in all RCMs smaller than those in the climatological mean. All models underestimate observed warming trends in the period 1951–2010. The largest precipitation biases coincide with locations/seasons with small observed amounts but large precipitation amounts near high orography are relatively well reproduced. When forced by the same GCM all RCMs exhibit a warming in the cold half-year and a cooling (or weak warming) in the warm period, implying a strong impact of GCM boundary forcing. The future eastern Adriatic climate is characterised by a warming, up to +5 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century; for precipitation, no clear signal is evident in the first half of the twenty-first century, but a reduction in precipitation during summer prevails in the second half. It is argued that land-sea contrast and complex coastal configuration of the Croatian coast, i.e. multitude of island and well indented coastline, have a major impact on small-scale variability. Orography plays important role only at small number of coastal locations. We hypothesise that the parameterisations related to land surface processes and soil hydrology have relatively stronger impact on variability than orography at those locations that include a relatively large fraction of land (most coastal stations), but affecting less strongly locations at the Adriatic islands.  相似文献   

CDM and international technology transfer: empirical evidence on wind power     

Ivan Haščič  Nick Johnstone 《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):1303-1314

This article examines the effect of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on the international transfer of wind power technologies. The analysis is conducted using patent data from over 100 countries during the period 1988–2008. It is found that transfers from Annex I countries to non-Annex I countries are significantly affected by the contemporaneous establishment of projects under the CDM. However, when taking into account the cumulative effect of CDM projects, the effect is negative. Finally, the effect of domestic absorptive capacity in the host country is positive and significant. Because involvement with the CDM may increase the latter, this is an important area for further research.  相似文献   

Lake Shira Level Changes in Late Holocene     

Andrey DARIN  Ivan KALUGIN  Natalya MAKSIMOVA  Tatiana MARKOVICH  Yakov RAKSHUN  Dmitryi SOROKOLETOV  Fedor DARIN  Denis RAGOZIN 《《地质学报》英文版》2014,88(Z1):3-4

正1 Introduction Meromictic Shira Lake is a good represfor detail climate modeling due to its locainformation and annually laminated bottomsediment column of 155 cm in length wahammer corer in the deepest(24 m)central in 2009.2 Sample Preparations and Measuring  相似文献   

Modeling compositional compressible two-phase flow in porous media by the concept of the global pressure     

Brahim Amaziane  Mladen Jurak  Ana Žgaljić Keko 《Computational Geosciences》2014,18(3-4):297-309

We derive a new formulation for the compositional compressible two-phase flow in porous media. We consider a liquid–gas system with two components: water and hydrogen. The formulation considers gravity, capillary effects, and diffusivity of each component. The main feature of this formulation is the introduction of the global pressure variable that partially decouples the system equations. To formulate the final system, and in order to avoid primary unknowns changing between one-phase and two-phase zones, a second persistent variable is introduced: the total hydrogen mass density. The derived system is written in terms of the global pressure and the total hydrogen mass density. The system is capable of modeling the flows in both one and two-phase zones with no changes of the primary unknowns. The mathematical structure is well defined: the system consists of two nonlinear parabolic equations, the global pressure equation, and the total hydrogen mass density equation. The derived formulation is fully equivalent to the original one. Numerical simulations show ability of this new formulation to model efficiently the phase appearance and disappearance.  相似文献   

A geochemical and stable isotope investigation of groundwater/surface-water interactions in the Velenje Basin,Slovenia     

Tjaša Kanduč  Fausto Grassa  Jennifer McIntosh  Vekoslava Stibilj  Marija Ulrich-Supovec  Ivan Supovec  Sergej Jamnikar 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(4):971-984

The geochemical and isotopic composition of surface waters and groundwater in the Velenje Basin, Slovenia, was investigated seasonally to determine the relationship between major aquifers and surface waters, water–rock reactions, relative ages of groundwater, and biogeochemical processes. Groundwater in the Triassic aquifer is dominated by HCO₃ ^–, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and δ¹³C_DIC indicating degradation of soil organic matter and dissolution of carbonate minerals, similar to surface waters. In addition, groundwater in the Triassic aquifer has δ¹⁸O and δD values that plot near surface waters on the local and global meteoric water lines, and detectable tritium, likely reflecting recent (<50 years) recharge. In contrast, groundwater in the Pliocene aquifers is enriched in Mg²⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, K⁺, and Si, and has high alkalinity and δ¹³C_DIC values, with low SO₄ ^2– and NO₃ ^– concentrations. These waters have likely been influenced by sulfate reduction and microbial methanogenesis associated with coal seams and dissolution of feldspars and Mg-rich clay minerals. Pliocene aquifer waters are also depleted in ¹⁸O and ²H, and have ³H concentrations near the detection limit, suggesting these waters are older, had a different recharge source, and have not mixed extensively with groundwater in the Triassic aquifer.  相似文献   

The influence of building materials on salt formation in rural environments     

Vesna Matović  Suzana Erić  Danica Srećković-Batoćanin  Philippe Colomban  Aleksandar Kremenović 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(6):1939-1951

Blocks of limestone and sandstone used in walls of the Manasija Monastery complex showed damage caused by the efflorescence and subflorescence of different salts in a low-pollution rural environment. In addition to common salts such as thenardite, thermonatrite, trona and gypsum, a small amount of eugsterite and darapskite was also present. Although these sodium and sodium–calcium salts formed where cement mortar was used for repairs, the lithological type and chemical composition of the substrate also had an influence on the development of distinct salts. The interaction between limestone and sandstone (substrates) and a solution rich in sodium (without calcium) was successfully simulated in the laboratory. The presence of gypsum and sodium–calcium sulphate, as experimental products, solely on the limestones indicated that, in addition to the cement-mortar solution, part of the calcium required for the formation of calcium and double sodium–calcium salts could occur from this substrate.  相似文献   

From computed tomography to mechanics of granular materials via level set bridge     

Ivan Vlahinić  Reid Kawamoto  Edward Andò  Gioacchino Viggiani  José E. Andrade 《Acta Geotechnica》2017,12(1):85-95

This paper details the ‘level set bridge’: a single platform for the characterization of various aspects of granular micro-mechanics, including grain morphology, grain kinematics, and inter-granular contact. This platform is studied and verified for accuracy using synthetic examples, in particular, its robustness with respect to the variables of image resolution and noise. The level set bridge is then applied to analysis of XRCT images of real 3D triaxial experiments of two types of granular materials. Contact statistics and kinematics are reported inside and outside of the failure band of one, and kinematics inside a failure band are reported in the other, from preload to critical state.  相似文献   

Structure analysis of geopolymers synthesized from clay originated from Serbia     

Snežana S. Nenadović  Ljiljana M. Kljajević  Maja A. Nešić  Marijana Ž. Petković  Katarina V. Trivunac  Vladimir B. Pavlović 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(2):79

The paper presents chemical and structural analysis of geopolymer materials which are obtained by alkali-activated calcined clay (metakaolin) originated from Serbia under strictly defined conditions. Characterization of the metakaolin and geopolymers molecular structure has been done using X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscope, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. The paper presents the possibility of obtaining geopolymer structure and differences in chemical and structural characterization of these materials taking into account the concentration of NaOH as a variable parameter. The results of MALDI analysis of metakaolin and synthesized geopolymer structures using various matrix system: 2,4,6 trihydroxyacetophenone (THAP), α-cyano-4-hydroxycinnamic, 2,6 dihydroxyacetophenone and laser desorption/ionization, have shown that THAP matrix is the most appropriate for analysing these aluminosilicate materials.  相似文献   

Anisotropy of P-wave Velocity in the Upper Crust of the Central External Dinarides     

Lokmer  Ivan  Herak  Marijan 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1999,43(4):345-356

The anisotropy of Pg-wave velocity in the area of the central External Dinarides is measured by using arrival time data as reported by local and regional seismological stations. The observed velocity varies between 5.73 km/s (in the ESE-WNWdirection) and 6.20 km/s (in the SSW-NNE direction), indicating azimuthal anisotropy with symmetry axis azimuths of 23°±n 90°. These closely match the orientation of the principal stress axes in the region, as revealed by analyses of available fault-plane solutions. The observed anisotropy may be modelled by assuming a system of vertical/subvertical cracks in the upper crust, aligned under the influence of the regional tectonic stress field.  相似文献